DFS Tournament Three and Out Week 16

DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 16

By Bob Harris

Here we go. ... It's Week 16 and there are some super-solid matchup-based plays at reasonable prices waiting for us on the major sites. Mostly at quarterback, but also beyond. In the case of the QBs, they're very stackable and have some natural pairings. I'll suggests some, but feel free to get freaky. Even with the non-QB, you’ll find all these players fine building blocks for your lineups. Unless it's the guy I'm out on. Then don't get to crazy. ... Let’s get into it.

I'm In:

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,000 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)
I get it. This seems like it's chasing points after Mayfield threw for 381 passing yards and four touchdowns in Green Bay last Sunday. He became just the third player to have at least 375 passing yards, four touchdown throws and a 158.3 rating in a road game in NFL history, joining Nick Foles (Nov. 3, 2013 at Oakland, with Philadelphia) and Ken O'Brien (Nov. 2, 1986 at Seattle, with the New York Jets). Of course, he did against a Packers defense that's been one of the position's most favorable matchups over the past five weeks. So it can't get any better than that, right? Well. ... As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes, the Jaguars have been even more fantasy-friendly for quarterbacks during that time, surrendering a 20-plus-point score to each of the past three they have faced, most recently to streaming/fill-in types Jake Browning (Week 13) and Joe Flacco (Week 14). More to the point, Jacksonville's defense has allowed the fifth-most passing yards, seventh-most touchdowns and third-most fantasy points-per game to QBs on the season. As for those worried you're chasing last week's massive output, ESPN's Liz Loza reminded readers this week that Mayfield has registered multiple passing TDs in six of his past eight games. In fact, Mayfield ranks inside the top 10 in passing scores, with 24 on the season. So the upside has been there. ... So who are we stacking him with? Chris Godwin? Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason notes that Godwin has target shares of 37.9 percent and 44.4 percent over his last two games. But he's still scored just once through the air this season despite 108 targets. Meanwhile, Mike Evans boasts a 16.1% TD rate on his catches. In addition, as NBC Sports' Mark Garcia pointed out, "After consecutive games where the pass matchup was likeliest to funnel production to the short-to-intermediate middle of the field [hello Godwin], the Buccaneers now get an opponent that is most susceptible to perimeter production, leaving Evans as a high upside correlation play. ..." I agree with that and with Garcia's suggestion to run it back with Jacksonville tight end Evan Engram, who should benefit from the ongoing absence of Christian Kirk and the expected absence of Zay Jones (knee, hamstring). In addition, with Trevor Lawrence possibly sitting this one out, Engram seems more QB-proof than Calvin Ridley.

Joe Flacco, QB, Cleveland Browns ($5,500 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
As FantasyLife's Dwain McFarland pointed out this week, the Browns' run-first mentality and QB accuracy woes have kept their receiving assets in check for the most part this season. All that has changed with Flacco at the helm. The Browns have morphed into a pass-first operation. Cleveland ranks No. 1 in time of possession (55 percent) for the season, and now those plays are pass plays more often than not, with a dropback rate of 68 percent with Flacco under center. While the 38-year-old QB hasn't been hyper-accurate, his 58 percent completion rate is a sizable upgrade over P.J. Walker (49 percent) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (54 percent). Better still, Flacco has attempted 44 or more passes in all three starts with Cleveland this season. The 15-year veteran has thrown for 939 yards over that span. He's landed multiple touchdowns in all three starts and has more than 300 passing yards in consecutive games. Next up is a plus matchup against the Texans, who have allowed 19 or more points to quarterbacks six times including three on their home field. Sounds good. And the stackable pieces start with the obvious: In three games with Flacco, David Njoku averages 19.1 fantasy points per game with 9.3 targets per contest. His 22 percent target share ranks fourth in the league among tight ends and he leads the team with the career-high five receiving touchdowns this season. The Texans have allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends this season and the sixth-most since Week 11. SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes they've also given up the sixth-most points and a 73.7% catch rate to the position. Want to triple up? Garcia notes that 44 of a possible 89 targets (49.4 percent) have gone to Njoku and Amari Cooper during the previous two games (the two games where Cooper was healthy).

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets ($6,100 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
This one is about the price. And the upside. And the matchup. Despite all those positives, Hall isn't without risk. We'll start there. In case you missed it, Israel Abanikanda played significant snaps for first time all season last week. In fact, the fifth-round rookie played more offensive snaps against the Dolphins than all other weeks put together. As PFF.com's Nathan Jahnke noted this week, Hall took all three plays on the Jets' first drive of the second half. After that point, Abanikanda started to play and took 22 of the remaining 28 snaps. Hall played three more snaps over the rest of the game. Abanikanda is dealing with an ankle injury this week, so that concern might take care of itself. But another thing to keep in mind: The 103 total yards on offense for the Jets at Miami tied for the fourth-lowest output in franchise history. Will all that cause other players to avoid Hall? I hope so. Because this matchup is fantastic. Much like last week when I went with Rams RB Kyren Williams, it's easy to overlook how favorable this matchup is for running backs because it's even more susceptible to passing attacks. But, as NBC Sports' Matthew Berry notes, Washington has allowed 100-plus scrimmage yards to a back in six straight games. During that span, every back to see just 12 or more touches against Washington has scored at least one touchdown. And Washington is allowing 31.0 PPG to backs over that stretch. As for the upside? FantasyPros' Derek Brown advised his readers that Hall ranks 11th in yards per touch, second in evaded tackles and 11th in yards created per touch. All those numbers play into Commander weaknesses. If the risk isn't worth the potential reward here, feel free to pivot to Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard, who should continue to enjoy elite volume in a great matchup against the Packers at an equally reasonable price.

I'm Out:

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals ($6,400 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel)
As Cockroft notes, the Bears have been the second-toughest defense against quarterbacks over the past five weeks, thanks in large part to the play of midseason acquisition Montez Sweat. He has brought a new dimension to the team's pass rush, the Bears having totaled six interceptions on 49 pass attempts when the quarterback was pressured during that time. Cockroft added: "You might think Murray, with his mobility, could nevertheless make plays happen despite being heavily pressured, but he has been only marginally better than league average in those instances over the past five weeks (spanning his healthy games), averaging just 0.31 points per offensive snap (the league average is 0.25). ..." Yes, he has scored on the ground in three of his previous four games, but Brown reminded his readers that Murray only finished as a QB1 in two of his five starts because he has been struggling mightily as a passer. Since Week 10, among 32 qualifying passers, Murray ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating and 27th in highly accurate throw rate. The Bears have allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdowns. Making matters worse, a receiving corps that's been limited by injury has made tight end Trey McBride Murray's only reliable downfield threat. McBride is fantastic. But there's only one of him and Brown believes "Chicago will sit back in Cover 3 all day and make Murray’s day a living hell."