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DFS Three And Out 2022 week 5
It's Week 5 and I see some tasty matchups out there. In particular, I have three players with matchups I will look to leverage in my DFS Tournament lineups this weekend. And one I'm not so keen on. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out and I'm on the job.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,100 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel)
Welcome to the party Tom! After a slow start, which ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockroft contends was largely driven by matchups and injuries to his receiving personnel, Brady rebounded in a big way in Week 4, dropping 385 yards, three touchdowns and 25.40 fantasy points on the Chiefs, every last one of them on throws. This week? According to FantasyPros' Derek Brown, "Brady goes full scorched earth. ..." Assuming Brady's tender throwing shoulder isn't an issue (and he returned to practice Thursday and was reportedly "slinging it" during the session), the matchup is prime. Per Brown, the Falcons have yielded the fourth-highest success rate per dropback while also ranking tenth in yards per attempt and 12th in passing touchdown rate. Despite a pair of talented cornerbacks (Casey Hayward, A.J. Terrell), the Falcons are seventh in explosive pass rate allowed. Atlanta has remained a zone-based defense (60 percent zone for their outside corners). Brady is third in passing accuracy and fourth in completion rate against zone. Meanwhile, the Falcons are one of five teams to allow 700-plus yards and six-plus touchdowns to receivers this year. Cockroft reminded readers that Jameis Winston (Week 1) and Geno Smith (Week 3) each passed for a pair of touchdowns against this defense. Brady also has a tremendous history against the Falcons. He has averaged 23 fantasy points per game in nine career games against them. Throw in an increasingly healthy (and reasonably-priced for those looking to stack) receiving corps and we have all the ingredients for a big game.
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,400 on DraftKings; $8,000 on FanDuel)
As ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld framed it: "Go with running backs against Houston. Go with running backs against Houston. Go with running backs against Houston. Did I mention we are going to be going with running backs against Houston?" This is a reasonable take. The Texans are allowing over 5.0 yards per carry to running backs and have allowed five RB rushing touchdowns, with only the Lions allowing more. Robinson, meanwhile, has looked amazing this year. He scored a touchdown in each of the first three games against Washington, Indianapolis and the Chargers, and he ran for 100 yards against Los Angeles in Week 3. He already has three runs of at least 22 yards. Better still, at least for tournament investors, he's coming off a horrible Week 4, finishing with just eight carries for 29 yards and no catches in Philadelphia. Zeidenfeld went on to notes that Jacksonville is a 7.5 point favorite heading into this one, so expecting a workload more along the lines of the previous three weeks seems reasonable. Plus, Robinson has 13 red-zone touches while no other member of the Jaguars has seen more than six.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans ($5,800 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel)
Much like Brady, Cooks rejoined the fantasy-relevant conversation against the Chargers last week, pulling in seven passes for 54 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. But as Brown points out, it hasn't been a great season so far. In fact, Brown wrote, "Cooks' performance this season has the trappings of a veteran wide receiver that's finally hitting the wall." Even with all of this taken into account, Brown acknowledges Cooks can still produce well in any given week because of the volume he sees. As CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg suggests, Cooks should have the chance for another big game against the Jaguars. In his past five meetings against Jacksonville, Cooks has 28 catches for 601 yards and five touchdowns. His worst game against the Jaguars over that span was 17 PPR points, and he has either a touchdown or 130 receiving yards in each contest. Remember, this game has an over/under of 43.5 points with the Jags favored by more than a touchdown. The Texans are going to be playing catch-up or keep-up, and I'm fine with either.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams ($6,600 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
I know. This is low-hanging fruit. I mean Stafford, who managed just 12 fantasy points in Monday night's loss to the 49ers, has been bad enough as is. This season, Stafford has two more interceptions (six) than TD passes (four). And the Rams are struggling to scheme for this pass game outside of Cooper Kupp. His offensive line is playing poorly and dealing with injuries. This week he goes up against a Dallas defense that's made fantasy mincemeat out of Brady (13 fantasy points, Week 1), Joe Burrow (16 fantasy points in Week 2) and Carson Wentz (11 fantasy points in Week 4). As Cockroft notes, Dallas' strength is generating turnovers -- they already have four interceptions this year after pacing the league with 26 last season. They've only given up three total passing touchdowns. Did I mention Stafford's TD to INT rate? Also, that's not a typo: Stafford is more expensive on DraftKings than Brady is.