DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 6

DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 6

By Bob Harris

It's always fun to target pieces on under-performing teams. Turns out, even less-than-impressive offenses can yield impressive performances. It happens all the time. Predicting who and when? That's tricky. Yet here I am, trying to do that very thing. It might or might not be a coincidence that three of the four players in today's column come from one game -- a contest with a middle of the road total. Still, hoping to cash in on affordable players with upside on offenses and in games others aren't focused on can be profitable. So here we go. I have four players that meet all those criteria. Three I'll be rolling with and one I won't. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out for Week 6.

I'm In:

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($4,800 on DraftKings; $6,300 on FanDuel)
Look. Desmond Ridder is not the triggerman I want to lean on for consistent week-to-week production. But if you're looking to leverage a matchup in a game that's likely to be of lesser interest to tournament players, this is definitely one to target. Washington has not been a great defense this season. And, as FantasyPros' Derek Brown pointed out, the main cause of their issues has been their struggles against the deep ball. In fact, Washington has allowed the most passing yards per game and 60 percent of their passing touchdowns to deep passes. Meanwhile, ESPN's Mike Clay notes the Commanders have struggled mightily against receivers, having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position (most over expected), as well as the second most to the perimeter where London aligns 79 percent of the time. Washington is allowing a league-high 11.0 yards per target to receivers and surrendered huge games to both D.J. Moore (49 points) and A.J. Brown (39). While it's fair to wonder if Ridder can take advantage of that, I'll point out it's a home game and Ridder is 31-0 at home as a starter in college and the NFL. The game is also indoors, which doesn't hurt. If Ridder does attack the Commanders deep, London will be part of the gameplan. He is tied for the team lead in deep targets with six.

Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers ($5,900 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel)
Last week against the Lions, Thielen was the dominant piece in Carolina's offense as he caught 11 of 13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. For those who might not be paying attention to a Panthers offense that's done little to demand our attention, this isn't a new development. Over the last four games, Thielen has averaged nine catches and 95.5 yards per game along with three touchdowns. He's doing that on an average of 11 targets. Volume matters, even in less than impressive offenses. This week, the Panthers take on the Dolphins, who were in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to receivers prior to facing the Giants last week. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio suggested, it's safe to say the Panthers will be in catch-up mode in this one, which means lots of targets going to Thielen. I'm going to ride the hot hand here.

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Commanders ($3,500 on DraftKings; $5,100 on FanDuel)
As ESPN's Liz Loza framed it this week, "Thomas may not be considered elite by fantasy managers, but Eric Bieniemy has no problems featuring his team's TE1." In the three full games he has played, Thomas has commanded a 17.1 percent target share and 17.7 percent first-read share. He leads the Commanders in targets per routes run (19.7 percent) and red-zone target percentage (21.1 percent). Last Thursday, against Chicago, the converted QB led all Washington pass-catchers in targets (11), catches (9) and yards (77). Yes, game flow was a factor here. Washington fell behind and had to throw the ball (the Commanders dropped back to pass 55 consecutive times from 8:49 left in the second quarter through the end of the game; they finished with 51 total pass attempts on the night). Still, Thomas has scored a touchdown in two of four games played this season and he gets a strong matchup against a Falcons defense that's allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

I'm Out:

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commander ($5,500 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)
As noted above, the Commanders threw 51 passes last week. McLaurin finished with just five targets. As Florio noted, he has six targets or fewer in all but one game this season. He has topped 60 receiving yards just once. This week, he'll go up against a Falcons secondary that has allowed the fourth-fewest yards to receivers despite playing one more game than a few teams. Adding to the concern, McLaurin is likely to face shadow coverage from Atlanta CB A.J. Terrell. According to Clay, when these teams met in Week 12 last season, Terrell shadowed McLaurin on 12 of his 19 routes, including all 12 perimeter routes. While it was clearly a low-volume passing day for Washington, McLaurin was limited to a 4-48-0 receiving line on six targets in the game. Adding to my concern, Atlanta has surrendered just two touchdowns and the second-fewest points to perimeter receivers in 2023.