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DFS Three And Out 2022 week 13
It's lucky Week 13 and I want to be reasonable. So I'm picking three reasonably-priced players with great matchups, upside and some momentum. Oh. Yeah. And one who doesn't. It's a DFS Tournament Three and Out. Let's do this!
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,900 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockroft noted this week, Lawrence stepped up with a big-time comeback performance against the Ravens in Week 12, delivering 28 fantasy points almost entirely fueled by his 321 yards and three touchdowns passing. What's more, he did it against one of the league's better pass defenses. He won't be facing that level of competition this week. In fact, Lawrence, who has surpassed 20 fantasy points in five of his last six games, travels to Detroit this week to play, as ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld put it, "in a weather-controlled situation on a fast track against a defense that throttles up everything that an offense can do well." In fact, the Lions have surrendered three straight games of 24-plus fantasy points, and all three of them were against quarterbacks who can run, as Lawrence certainly can. That said, he hasn't had to do much of that in recent weeks because he's getting it done as a passer. Lawrence thrown 25-plus completions in three straight games with six touchdown passes over that span. Given his reasonable price, feel free to stack as you see fit.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers ($6,900 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
Jones is coming off another super-efficient outing after racking up 99 total yards and a touchdown on 15 touches against a tough Eagles defense. An obvious bonus for those investing is, if there's no room to run, Jones will get it done as a receiver. Over the past two games, he's caught nine-of-11 targets for 76 yards and a score. A more obvious bonus this week is the opponent. No matter who his starting quarterback is (we're expecting Aaron Rodgers to get the call, but Jordan Love wouldn't be a deal-breaker here), Jones should have a huge performance against the Bears' defense, which struggles to stop the run (143.9 rushing yards per game allowed) in general and to, more specifically, stop Jones. In Green Bay's first meeting against the Bears in Week 2, Jones dominated Chicago with 170 total yards and two touchdowns on 18 touches. As FantasyPros' Derek Brown put it, Jones is "poised to do it again." Brown went on to note that while A.J. Dillon was solid last week, Jones still owns the backfield. He averages 16.5 touches and 79.5 total yards over the last two games. He's played at least 66 percent of the snaps with a bump in his target share (19 percent) since Week 11. Worth noting, Jones isn't the only RB who has had success against Chicago this season. NFL.com's Michael F. Florio notes the Bears have allowed 25.9 fantasy PPG to backs this season, the eighth most in the NFL.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets ($5,300 on DraftKings; $6,600 on FanDuel)
As Zeidenfeld notes, Wilson has posted tremendous volume in three of his last four games and, with improved quarterback play from Mike White in Week 12, shone through with two touchdowns. How much of a difference does White make? ESPN.com's Matt Bowen contends that White upgrades the fantasy ceiling for Wilson here. "The ball comes out on time with White under center," Bowen wrote. "He can hit the defined throws, find the coverage voids and play within structure." And even if Wilson's 26 fantasy points last week owed as much to a favorable matchup against Chicago as it did White, guess what? This week's opponent, the Vikings continue to struggle against wide receivers, having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points (second most over the last month) to the position this season. ESPN's Mike Clay adds to that, noting Minnesota has allowed the most points to the perimeter for the season and over the last eight weeks and Wilson is working primarily on the outside in recent weeks. Better still, Wilson is a player whose price hasn't quite kept up with his performance and he remains a solid value, especially given his dynamic ability after the catch.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears ($3,800 on DraftKings; $5,000 on FanDuel)
I get it. Kmet has been on a bit of a tear at a position where not many can make that claim. As Brown noted, since Week 8, Kmet has a 22.1 percent target share (five targets per game) with a 33.3 percent end-zone target share and 67.3 percent route run rate. Since Week 8, he has been ninth in PFF receiving grade, 17th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets), and has five of his six red-zone targets for the season. But the Bears have issues at quarterback. Even if Justin Fields plays, will he be healthy enough to fully leverage his receiving assets? Beyond that, as Cockroft pointed out, while the Packers did surrender 17 PPR fantasy points to Dalton Schultz (Week 10) and 19 to Austin Hooper (Week 11) during the past three weeks, on the whole they have performed above-average against tight ends for the season. In fact, Green Bay has shut down tight ends allowing the lowest receiving yards per game and fourth-lowest yards per reception. Kmet had only one target and zero receiving yards the last time these teams met.