DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 15

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 15

By Bob Harris

Here we go! It's Week 15. Some of you have fallen out of playoff contention in your season-long leagues. There's no better way to keep the fun going than diving into the DFS universe. I'm all about the large-field tournaments and so is this column. This week, I'm diving in by position. And it just so happened I have three plays I really like. And one I don't. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out! Get some!


I'm In:

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers ($6,800 on DraftKings; $8,400 on FanDuel)
Purdy's ascent to relevance seems to be complete, but that doesn't mean he's finished lighting up opponents -- much like he did against the Seahawks last week with a career-high 368-yard, two-TD performance. Thirteen games into his first full season as San Francisco's starter, Purdy continues to leverage one of the league's most talented supporting casts to the benefit of all involved. In fact, one of the common criticisms of Purdy has been that he simply dumps the ball off to receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle or running back Christian McCaffrey, and they do the bulk of the work. As ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner pointed out, there's truth in that as San Francisco leads the NFL in yards after the catch per reception at 6.9. There's also truth in the fact you're unlikely to find fantasy investors among the aforementioned critics. Besides, Purdy has added a deep ball element to San Francisco's offense that it previously lacked. That was on full display Sunday when Purdy set career highs for air yards per attempt (10.5) and air yards per completion (10.5). He hit Samuel for a 54-yard touchdown and Kittle for a 44-yard score on a day where the Niners had four plays that picked up at least 44 yards. Against the Seahawks, Purdy went 6-of-7 for 225 yards and two touchdowns on throws traveling 15-plus air yards. Over the past five games, Purdy is completing 73 percent of his throws of 15-plus air yards for 24.6 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He also has six passing touchdowns of 40-plus yards on the season. As FantasyPros' Derek Brown put it, Purdy "should decimate an Arizona secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the 10th-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns and the sixth-highest passer rating." Remember, Purdy also beat the Cardinals for two touchdowns and 21.3 points in Week 4. And if all that wasn't enough, the 49ers also have the highest implied team total this week. ... For the record, I'm not against Matthew Stafford in this spot given his price ($6,000 on DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel) and matchup (vs. Commanders), but I have another Ram on my list, so let's get to that. ...

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams ($7,500 on DraftKings; $9,600 on FanDuel)
While the entire world is going to be in on Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and the passing attack in this matchup against a toothless Washington pass defense, I tend to agree with our own KC Joyner, who wrote in this week's Blue-Rated Wideouts column, "The concern for the Rams wide receivers is that Washington's rush defense has been so awful that this contest is apt to be the Williams show. ..." As NBC Sports' Mark Garcia suggested this week, Williams currently boasts "the second-most valuable workload of all backs in the league," behind only McCaffrey. In fact, Williams ran 25 times against the Ravens last week. It was the second time this season he's reached that number. PFF.com's Nathan Jahnke pointed out that Williams and Josh Jacobs are the only running backs with multiple 25-plus-carry games this year. Brown notes that since he returned from injured reserve in Week 12, Williams has averaged 24.7 touches and 143 total yards from scrimmage. He also has 12 touches inside the 10-yard line over that stretch and he's been on the field for more than 90 percent of the team's offensive snaps over the last two games. As for the matchup against the Commanders? Per Brown, since dealing away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington has allowed the 10th-highest rushing touchdown rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt and the ninth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Williams 66 percent gap). Garcia added: Williams "has a likeliest range of outcomes of 22-25 running back opportunities on a team implied for 28 points, the second highest on the slate. This is another 'don't overthink it' spot for Week 15."

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints ($7,100 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)
As NBC Sports' Kyle Dvorchak pointed out, Olave leads the NFL in air yards (1,706). He's sixth in the NFL in air yards share. On the other hand, he also leads the NFL in unrealized air yards. So there's a boom/bust aspect here, but this is the matchup to leverage. According to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft, the Giants defense "has utterly collapsed" against wide receivers over the past five weeks. During that time, they've surrendered the most fantasy points per game to the position, including a disastrous Week 10 against the Dallas Cowboys during which both CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks exceeded 30 points. Although he wasn't a huge factor in last week's blowout win over the Panthers, Olave still came out of it with a touchdown and Cockroft expects a return closer to (if not greater than) the 18 points he averaged from Weeks 9-13. Remember, Olave opened the week nursing an ankle injury, so watch that and if you're looking for a last-minute pivot, Green Bay's Jayden Reed ($4,900 on DraftKings; $6,100 on FanDuel) would suit me just fine. As Berry pointed out, Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most yards to wide receivers this season, while Reed has a target share of at least 26 percent and multiple rushing attempts in two of his last three games.


I'm Out:

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots ($3,200 on DraftKings; $5,300 on FanDuel)
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio wrote: "Don't go chasing waterfalls ... or tight end touchdowns from last week. ..." Florio went on to remind readers that Henry scored two on Thursday Night Football, but he only had three targets. He has single-digit points in every game without a touchdown and fewer than six in all but one of those. The Chiefs have given up just three touchdowns to tight ends and rank among the top six stingiest defenses when it comes to yards allowed to the position, both on the season and since Week 10. In fact, as SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes, their defense hasn't allowed a tight end to score more than 11.7 points in a game this season, and just three have scored double digit points.