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DFS Three And Out 2022 week 10
It's Week 10 and I have some high-priced chalk, a mid-tier high-upside play and a bit of a dart toss. Oh, and a QB with a less-than-favorable matchup. It's a DFS Tournament Three and Out. Let's do this!
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants ($8,600 on DraftKings; $9,500 on FanDuel)
I paid up for Derrick Henry when he went up against the Texans two weeks ago and that worked out well enough, so I'm going back to the well. ... First of all: Barkley is very good this year. Better than I expected. He's currently the RB5 in fantasy averaging 23.9 touches and 121 total yards per game. The underlying numbers are just as impressive. As FantasyPros' Derrick Brown notes, Barkley is fifth in evaded tackles, 13th in breakaway run rate and 21st in yards created per touch. Brown went on to note Barkley is top-three in snap share, opportunity share and weighted opportunities. Also, Houston's run defense is. ... Porous. At best. ... The Texans are bottom four in rushing yards per game, rush EPA per play and explosive run rate allowed. Over their last three games, the Texans have allowed Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Miles Sanders to combine for 455 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Worth noting: Barkley is a far more dangerous receiving threat than those three and he should be well rested coming off the bye. Chalky? Yes. Just like Henry was two weeks ago before he ran for 219 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Houston. And Jacobs three weeks ago, when he ran for 143 yards and three touchdowns against this unit.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears ($5,500 on DraftKings; $6,200 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com's Matt Bowen noted this week, Mooney is seeing some steady target volume in a Chicago pass game that is building some juice with quarterback Justin Fields. Mooney has logged double-digit PPR production in three of his last four games, catching 21 of 29 targets during that stretch. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry points out that Mooney's 28.6 percent target share on the season is eighth among all receivers. Bowen added that coaches schemed Mooney's matchup on a touchdown last week to beat the Dolphins' man coverage and that the Bears will get more man coverage on Sunday versus the Lions. Better still, Detroit's defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position, as well as eight TDs and the second-highest yards per target (9.4). They also yield the most yards per game on deep passes. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, Detroit sits top-10 in fantasy points allowed to both the perimeter and slot, which is notable because the Bears move their receivers around a lot (Mooney has played 58 percent in the slot and the rest on the perimeter). Last week, Fields was one of my picks in this column and I'll be playing him again this week. Also last week, I stacked Fields with Cole Kmet and that went well, with the tight end turning a pair of Fields' passes into touchdowns. Rather than chase Kmet's production, I'm going to pivot to Mooney, who lit up the Lions in 2021 with two games of more than 100 yards receiving.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Cleveland Browns ($4,300 on DraftKings; $5,700 on FanDuel)
Don't look now, but Peoples-Jones has scored double-digit fantasy points in four of the past five games. Over that span, Peoples-Jones has averaged 6.2 targets and 69.0 receiving yards per game. He's drawn a 19 percent target share, with three of his five red zone targets this season coming in his last five games. The Browns come out of their Week 9 bye to face the Dolphins' defense, which is allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game. Adding to the intrigue here, this game has one of the higher over/unders on the slate (48.5 at SI.com Sports Book) with Miami a 3.5-point favorite. Berry notes that in Cleveland's last four losses, Jacoby Brissett is averaging 35.3 pass attempts against a defense allowing touchdown passes at the seventh-highest rate on the season.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys ($6,600 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
I was going to go with Aaron Rodgers in this spot until it struck me: Nobody is playing Rodgers this week. Not against a ferocious Cowboys defense. And not considering his recent level of play. ... But I was considering Prescott, who has averaged 20 fantasy points with only 14 interceptions and nine lost fumbles in his past 24 games. He's also coming off a 28-point outing against the Chicago Bears prior to last week's bye. In fact, in Week 7 and 8, his two games back from the thumb injury that sidelined him the five weeks prior to that, Prescott ranked sixth in PFF passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, and seventh in adjusted completion rate. But as ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockroft notes, this isn't one of the better remaining matchups for a quarterback who has peaks and valleys in his game log. The Packers have allowed just 170.6 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. In addition, they have yet to allow a 20-point game to a quarterback this season and are one of five defenses that can claim that held Josh Allen to 17 points in Week 8 and Jared Goff to 11 in Week 8. Along those lines, CBSSports.com's Heath Cummings points out the Cowboys have thrown 25 and 27 passes in Prescott's first two games back. Cummings went on to explain: "Each of the past four seasons, Prescott has averaged between 0.6 and 0.66 fantasy points per pass attempt which means he needs more than 30 pass attempts to project 20 Fantasy points. Recent history combined with the current matchup should give you no confidence Prescott will throw 30 passes."