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DFS Three And Out 2022 week 6
It's Week 6 and there are some players whose prices stand out based on anticipated role and their respective matchups. And some who don't. I have three of former and one of the latter for my DFS tournament lineups this week. That's how the DFS Tournament Three and Out works y'all.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots ($5,500 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)
As FantasyPros' Derek Brown noted, with Damien Harris suffering a hamstring injury early in last week's win over the Lions, Stevenson became a volume king, drawing 90 percent of the snaps with 27 touches and 175 total yards. He handled 75.8 percent of the rushing attempts and a 9.5 percent target share. The reporting out of Foxboro indicates, his limited participation Wednesday and Thursday notwithstanding, Harris will miss an extended period. So assuming there's no Harris (and with Ty Montgomery not ready to return from IR), Stevenson once again has a wide-open path to workload. Also, he's pretty good. In fact, Stevenson ranks third in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in missed tackles forced, 20th in breakaway rate and tenth in PFF's elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). This week, he faces a Cleveland defense that's better than Detroit's, but that's a low bar. Indeed, the Browns allow the fourth-highest rushing success rate, second-highest explosive run rate and fifth-most rushing yards per game allowed. Per ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld, Cleveland is allowing just under 6.0 yards per carry to running backs and a touchdown on every 17.5 running back carries (that translates to the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed). Last week, they gave up 238 yards rushing to the NFL's worst rushing team with Austin Ekeler averaging 10.8 yards a carry while racking up 176 yards on 16 turns. Better still, the price hasn't caught up with the role and matchup.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($4,700 on DraftKings; $6,600 on FanDuel)
Rashaad Penny's season-ending injury opens the door for Walker to make good on the pre-draft hype that had him almost universally views as the second-best prospect at the position behind only Breece Hall. Walker showed some of the flash that put him in that position with a 69-yard touchdown run against the Saints after Penny went down last week. In fact, Walker ranks 11th in PFF's elusive rating (immediately behind Stevenson), eighth in juke rate, second in yards created per touch and tenth in breakaway run rate. What kind of role should we expect? In Weeks 1-4, Penny handled 61 percent of Seattle's RB touches -- and that was sharing to some degree with Walker, who Zeidenfeld believes could garner closer to 70 percent of the RB touches with lesser pieces behind him. All that is great. So is the matchup for Walker's first NFL start. Per Brown, Arizona's run defense has faltered when tested extensively. The Cardinals are ninth in rush success rate allowed and 26th in explosive run rate allowed. Brown went on to point out the Chiefs running backs rolled up 5.4 yards per carry against them. Cam Akers, who has hardly been setting the world on fire, was able to hit 5.0 yards per carry. Zeidenfeld went on to point out the Cardinals have the lead in games on a league-low 3.6 percent of their offensive snaps, so game script is unlikely to hurt Walker this week. Again, the price is well below the anticipated role.
Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($4,600 on DraftKings; $6,300 on FanDuel)
James Conner is dealing with a rib injury and has yet to practice this week. Aaron Wilson of the Pro Football Network, citing league sources, is reporting Conner will miss Sunday's game (and perhaps more). Darrel Williams is expected to miss this week with a knee injury. Jonathan Ward was placed on IR with a hamstring injury. After all three went down against the Eagles last Sunday, Benjamin took advantage of the opportunity to demonstrate his play-making ability while compiling 53 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 11 touches. Beyond his performance against the Eagles, Brown notes that Benjamin has produced when given opportunities. He's tenth in yards created per touch, 13th in juke rate, 21st in breakaway run rate and 16th in yards per route run. Assuming Conner is out this week, Benjamin is in line to handle a significant workload against a Seattle defense that allows 170.2 rushing yards per game. Better still, the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including 194 yards of total offense from the Saints' Alvin Kamara and a 108-yard game to Lions running back Jamaal Williams. They've allowed at least 100 yards from scrimmage to every back they've faced this season. As Brown put it, "Benjamin has top 12 upside this week" -- and he offers that upside at bargain-basement prices.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,500 on DraftKings; $6,200 on FanDuel)
As I pointed out in this week's Team Notes, the list of things that have not gone as hoped for the Steelers this season is a long one and it includes Harris' performance over the first five weeks. He ran 11 times for 20 yards in this past Sunday's lopsided loss to the Patriots and he now has 222 yards on 69 carries for the season. He's only averaged more than four yards per carry in one of the team's five games. Making matters worse, Harris played 37 snaps against New England while undrafted rookie Jaylen Warren produced 63 yards on nine touches while playing 38 snaps. The score contributed to the split in playing time, but head coach Mike Tomlin said on Tuesday that "I think that's going to continue" while discussing an expanded role for Warren because the Steelers need everyone who can make plays on offense right now. Adding to the woes, the move to Kenny Pickett at quarterback hasn't done anything for Harris. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes, Harris scored just 7 PPR fantasy points in Pickett's relief appearance in Week 4 and 6 points in Pickett's first career start last Sunday, totaling only three catches on five targets combined in those games. Now Harris, who has two total touchdowns through five games, faces a Buccaneers defense that, outside of a Week 4 outlier against the Chiefs, has been dominant against opposing running backs. Cockroft notes that Ezekiel Elliott scored only 5 PPR fantasy points against the Buccaneers in their Week 1 meeting, while A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones combined for just 12 points against them in Week 3. While the price Harris' price has dropped accordingly, it hasn't diminished as much as my interest in the second-year man.