DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 4

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 4

By Bob Harris

Well now. ... It's Week 4 and I'm coming off a brutal Week 3 looking to course correct. That's not to say I'm playing it safe; instead I'm aiming for higher potential upside that might be overlooked by (or at least be of lesser interest to) the field due to recent individual or team performances, injuries to supporting cast and/or pricing. I'm going to stick with quarterbacks this week, so feel free to stack associated pieces as you see fit (or not in the case my "Out"). Let's go!

I'm In:

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,500 on DraftKings; $8,600 on FanDuel)

As FantasyPros' Derek Brown put it, "Herbert has been hosting a master class in quarterback play. ..." It's true. Even if the Chargers have been a bit disappointing over the first three weeks of the season, Herbert hasn't missed a beat. Last week against the Vikings, for example, Herbert completed 40 of 47 attempts for 405 yards and three touchdowns. Even with Mike Williams' season-ending ACL injury, Brown contends the Raiders "don't have a chance to slow [Herbert] down." Las Vegas has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns, second-highest passer rating and the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate. The Raiders are tied for the 13th-most dropbacks defended in man coverage. Against man, Herbert has the fifth-best yards per attempt and second-highest passer rating. With Williams sidelined, Herbert will need players like Josh Palmer and rookie Quenton Johnston to fill the void. Austin Ekeler could return to help in that department, but either way, Rotoballer's Skyler Carlin is of the mind that Keenan Allen
is poised for another stellar outing after hauling in 18 of his 20 targets for 215 yards, along with a passing touchdown in Week 3.

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears ($7,100 on DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel)

Last week I was out on Andy Dalton in a favorable matchup against the Seahawks because the of Carolina's general offensive malaise and low-scoring output in the first two games (with Bryce Young under center). That lesson won't be lost on me this week. ... Of course, "offensive malaise" would be a kind assessment when it comes to the Bears offense. Fields has been a big reason why. He passed for just 99 yards against the Chiefs in a 41-10 rout last weekend, dropping Chicago to 0-3, and it's been a brutal start for him this season. He's scored fewer than 17 fantasy points in each outing, and he's looked lost. Still, CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg speaks for many of us when he writes, "I'm hopeful that the quarterback who scored at least 24 fantasy points in six of his final nine starts last season will show up again, starting this week." Why this week? Well. ... The Broncos just gave up 70 points to the Dolphins. The week prior, they allowed 35 points to the Commanders. NFL Network's Michael F. Florio points
out Denver has yielded the fourth-most passing yards and the most rushing yards in the NFL. They've also given up the most passing touchdowns and are tied for the most in rushing touchdowns allowed. The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, with Jimmy Garoppolo (19.1 points), Sam Howell (25.3) and Tua Tagovailoa (36.4) all scoring at least two touchdowns against Denver. "This is the ultimate get-right spot for Fields," Florio added.

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos ($5,900 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)

As ESPN.com's Matt Bowen suggests, this is a matchup play against a Bears defense that is allowing an average of 21.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Wilson has produced back-to-back weeks of at least 300 yards passing, plus he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of three games this season. He ran for 56 yards two weeks ago, showing he still has that ability, even if you can't count on it weekly. ESPN's Mike Clay believes this could present a big opportunity for the Broncos passing game. The zone-heavy (73.6 percent of coverage snaps) Bears are midpack in fantasy points allowed to receivers this season, but injuries are a major issue right now. Adding to the intrigue, Chicago can't get to the quarterback. The Bears have produced a league-low one sack on the season, with just nine quarterback hits. As Florio notes, the Bears have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and are tied for third-most passing touchdowns allowed. They have given up 38, 27 and 41 points to their opponents so far. As a res
ult, every quarterback to face the Bears this season has scored at least 20 Fantasy points, including Jordan Love (29), Baker Mayfield (20) and Patrick Mahomes (317). Chicago has just two interceptions on the season, and both were from Blaine Gabbert in Week 3 in garbage time. Wilson has considerable play-making talent to work with in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and home-run hitter Marvin Mims Jr.

I'm Out:

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens ($7,700 on DraftKings; $8,200 on FanDuel)

Look, it's tempting. In fact, Jackson is tempting every week. His upside is reflected in his pricing. But is the anticipated juice worth the squeeze in a matchup against the Browns? That's a fair question. Although the Ravens were expected to improve their passing attack under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, that transformation remains a work in progress. Nevertheless, Jackson has delivered multiple touchdowns in two of his three games this season. He ranks third in carries per game and second in rushing yards. As Brown notes, this has led to QB9 and QB3 weekly finishes in the last two weeks. As Brown put it, "This week's matchup is brutal," so Jackson will have to run to finish with a decent fantasy day. Brown backed that contention up by noting that Cleveland has allowed the lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate on the season. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry chimed in, noting that Cleveland's defense is allowing the fewest yards per game, f
ewest yards per play and a league-low 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Brown also believes Cleveland's defense will send the house this week as they rank tenth in blitz rate and first in pressure rate. Jackson has the eighth-lowest passer grade and the ninth-lowest yards per attempt against the blitz this season. Going back to Brown's argument that Jackson needs to run to have a "decent" fantasy day, I totally agree. And he may well have a decent day. I'm looking for more than decent at this price.