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DFS Three And Out 2022 week 12
It's Week 12 and love me some running backs. Whether it's their matchup, workload, price or some combination thereof. I love them. Some more than others and one not at all. It's a DFS Tournament Three and Out. Let's do this!
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($6,900 on DraftKings; $8,400 on FanDuel)
Walker's emergence as a high-end producer has been exactly what managers in season-long fantasy have needed. But Walker's workload and big-play ability makes him a great asset in daily fantasy as well. Since Walker took over starting duties, he has averaged 22 touches and 106 total yards. As FantasyPros' Derek Brown pointed out, Walker has only once finished outside the top 24 running backs (RB25) and has posted three RB1 weeks. He's scored seven touchdowns and averaged nearly five yards per carry. Even in his worst game of the season, a 10-carry, 17-yard effort against the Buccaneers in Germany last week, there were encouraging stats. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry noted, Walker ran a route on 73 percent of the team's pass plays and earned a 24 percent target share. Over his last two games, he's seen a 48.1 percent route run rate. As Brown explained, Seattle expanding this part of his game will make him matchup-proof. But he won't always need to be that. Like this week. On the season, Las Vegas allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. For Walker the runner, Las Vegas is 29th in rushing yards per game, 17th in EPA per rush and 15th in explosive run rate since Week 6. For Walker the receiver, Las Vegas is 32nd in DVOA against pass-catching backs allowing the most receiving yards and eighth-highest yards per reception.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins ($5,900 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com's Tristan H. Cockroft noted this week, Wilson has "soared to the front of the Dolphins' backfield pecking order," playing 51 percent and 60 percent of the team's offensive snaps in his first two games for them while absorbing 26 rushing attempts combined. That makes Wilson the preferred choice -- though backup Raheem Mostert is a viable play as well -- facing a highly favorable matchup. In fact, calling this matchup "highly favorable" is a like Noah saying "it looks like it might rain a little." As NFL.com's Michael F. Florio points out, Houston has allowed the most fantasy points per game to RBs in the past month (34.8) and on the year (31.03). The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards, the second-most yards on outside runs and the most on inside. The Texans have surrendered 140-plus rushing yards and at least one rushing touchdown in five straight games. As a result, they've surrendered two of the season's nine 35-point games in the past five weeks alone.
Latavius Murray, RB, Denver Broncos ($5,000 on DraftKings; $6,200 on FanDuel)
Melvin Gordon was waived to begin the week, while Chase Edmonds is now out multiple weeks because of an ankle injury. That leaves Murray as the Broncos' starter and in line for a legitimate rushing workload each week. He already has at least 14 rushes in three of his five games as a Bronco, including a season-high 21 touches last week. He also has 3-plus receptions in each of his past two games, and has scored in three of four. Is this an exciting play? No. As Brown noted, among 69 running backs with at least 25 carries, Murray ranks 67th in yards after contact per attempt and 50th in Pro Football Focus' elusive rating. He has zero breakaway runs with his 74 carries. Last week he churned out 72 total yards with his 21 touches. Instead, he's a cheap play with touchdown upside in a favorable matchup against a Carolina defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing 127 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry to backs.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints ($7,300 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
As UPI's Alex Butler noted, Kamara ranks inside the Top 10 for fantasy points per game for his position over the past four weeks, but he's failed to surpass 89 yards from scrimmage in any of his last three appearances. He also didn't score during that stretch. And, as Berry pointed out, in an off season for him, Kamara has especially struggled on the road. He has less than eight fantasy points in three of four road games so far this season. He also has failed to score a touchdown in eight of his nine games this season and his touches have dropped recently, too, averaging just 13 touches per game over his past three games. This week, the Saints will face the San Francisco 49ers on the road. The 49ers allowed the fewest rushing yards, the second-fewest fantasy points and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs through 11 weeks.