DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 11

DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 11

By Bob Harris

Week 11 is upon and I feel like I’m due. That big win is coming. Maybe since I’m due, I should use some players in the same boat. That’s right. At some point, positive regression becomes a thing and I’m going to play some of those odds. Below you’ll find three players I think are due -- some would say overdue -- for high-end production. And there’s one who might be due for some actual regression. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out. Let's make some money!

I'm In:

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($6,600 on DraftKings; $6,900 on FanDuel)
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio framed it: "Last week, the Cowboys' offense was like the Oprah Winfrey meme: You get a touchdown! You get a touchdown! Everyone gets a touchdown!!! Everyone except Pollard. ..." It's true. The Cowboys scored seven offensive touchdowns, courtesy of six different players, but Pollard was left out in the cold. This is not a new development. And it's getting to point where something has to give. NBC Sports' Denny Carter notes Pollard has managed a single touchdown on nine inside-the-five rushes; he has two scores on 21 inside-the-ten carries; and only Christian McCaffrey has more inside-the-20 rushing attempts than Pollard. "Eventually," Carter added, "if Pollard keeps seeing these high-value touches, he's going to accidentally fall over the goal line" and reach the Promised Land. This seems like it could be the week. Beyond the obvious "he's due" factor, FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes that since Week 5, the Panthers remain a team that you can run on, giving up the tenth-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Pollard 58.1 percent gap). Zooming out just a bit, Carolina has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards, the most rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns to running backs.

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers ($4,600 on DraftKings; $5,700 on FanDuel)
Watson has just 14 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown in six games. While he missed the first three weeks with a hamstring injury, this isn't what fantasy managers -- or the Packers -- expected. As ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky notes, Watson came out of Sunday's game with the lowest catch rate (42 percent) of any receiver with at least 30 targets this season. He has eight end-zone targets with zero touchdowns. This after posting eight touchdowns (rushing and receiving combined) in Week 10-13 last season, tied with Randy Moss for the most ever by an NFL rookie over a four-game span. "At some point, it's going to click," Watson said Wednesday. I agree. ... As Brown suggested, Watson ranks 23rd among 85 qualifying receivers in open score, so this hasn't been a Watson problem but a Jordan Love issue. If Love can pull it together this week, Watson could experience his best game of the season against the Chargers' league-worst pass defense. As Florio notes, for receivers like him, it only takes one play to have a good day.

DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,900 on DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel)
As SBNation's Tyler Alsin notes, Metcalf has been Geno Smith's favorite target on the game-winning drives at the end of multiple games. He's essentially impossible to outbody. Though his deep ball skills have been utilized a couple times this year, it's the middle-of-the-field slant-type routes that have won the Seahawks a couple of games this year. Alsin acknowledged, Metcalf's catch rate is atrocious as always, but this season most of it's not been his fault. His 28 first downs lead the team, and he's only got one drop this season while his yards before catch per target sits right at his 2020 Pro Bowl number. Brown notes that Metcalf ranks 16th in the league in deep targets and fourth in red-zone targets. Since Week 6, in the four games that Seattle has fielded their starting trio of wideouts, Metcalf has led the way with a 24.2 percent target share, a 46.6 percent air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 33.3 percent first-read share. Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason chimed in by pointing out that while Metcalf hasn't scored in four games, he's seen a target share per game rate of almost 28 percent during that time. "Based on where he's seeing his targets," Zachariason explained, "he should have over five scores this year, but he's scored just twice." I'm going to go ahead put him on the "due" list.

I'm Out:

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders ($6,800 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)
As Sporting News staffer Nick Brinkerhoff noted, it had been tough sledding for the Raiders' running back this season, but the firing of Josh McDaniels has breathed new life into No. 8. Antonio Pierce has taken over as the interim coach and continued to preach that Vegas should be running the ball often as a run-first team. And the offense has practiced what Pierce has preached. In the two games with Pierce at the helm, Jacobs has enjoyed a massive workload. As in 53 carries. He's delivered 214 rushing yards over that span good for just a hair over 4 yards-per carry. Jacobs gained 408 yards in his first eight weeks, averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. Logically, the Raiders should once again come through with a run-heavy plan, especially as they try to keep the explosive Dolphins' offense off the field in Miami on Sunday. While the volume and improved blocking have helped his fantasy totals, Brown points out Jacobs' tackle-breaking has still been unimpressive. Over the last two weeks among 47 qualifying backs, Brown reports that Jacobs has ranked 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Brown went on to suggest that Jacobs will have tough sledding against a strong Miami run defense, adding: "Since Week 5, the Dolphins have held backs to the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt." And even if they want to keep Miami's offense off the field, it's not hard to envision the potent Dolphins offense putting up points early, making it difficult for Pierce to lean into the run.