DFS Three And Out 2022 week 4

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

It's Week 4 and I have quarterbacks in my crosshairs. Well, specifically I have three I intend to install in my DFS Tournament lineups this weekend. And one it don't. That's right. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out and I'm on the job.




I'm In

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills, ($8,400 on DraftKings; $8,900 on FanDuel),

As ESPN's Matt Bowen put it, "The Bills still run the NFL's most quarterback-centric offense. Last week, Allen recorded 63 passing attempts and added eight rushing attempts." Over the first three games, Allen has averaged 325 total yards and over 25 completions. He has at least 297 passing yards in three straight games. Meanwhile, as ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld pointed out, the Bills come into Week 4 with the highest implied team total at 27.5 expected points as face a Ravens pass defense that's responsible for the most passing yards allowed this season (353.3 per game) and that's allowed opponents to be on target with 80.8 percent of their deep passes (the third-highest percentage in the league). Feel free to pay up and stack with the teammates of your choosing.



Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions ($5,900 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel)

With at least one TD throw in all three games played, and a pass-catching group that can attack the Seahawks' single and double-high zone coverages, Goff merits our attention. Much of his success comes from play-action, where he is completing 64 percent of his passes with three touchdowns. According to Bowen, the scheme is ideally suited to what Goff does well. Its timing/rhythm-based concepts that create middle-of-the-field windows. Throw the catch-and-run targets to Amon-Ra St. Brown, work the second level with tight end T.J. Hockenson and mix in some vertical shots to D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds. Adding to the intrigue, the Seahawks are allowing a league-high 12.7 yards per completion this year and own the third-worst 3rd-down defense in the league, which could help keep the Lions on the field. Zeidenfeld points out that Detroit has the third-highest implied team total this weekend with 26.5 expected points, which typically correlates well with a quarterback's fantasy scoring.




Marcus Mariota, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($5,600 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel),

As Zeidenfeld notes, Mariota has exceeded fantasy expectations all three weeks so far this year. His rushing ability, combined with two very stackable options in the passing game (Drake London and Kyle Pitts) make Mariota an extremely viable tournament play this weekend. That rushing equity is the key. He tied for fourth among QBs in carries per game, sixth in rushing yards and first in red-zone carries. That's translated to 25 carries on the season, with rushing touchdowns in two of his three games played. According to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft, Cleveland's defense has allowed a league-leading 1.54 points per rushing attempt to quarterbacks through three weeks, as both Baker Mayfield (Week 1) and Mitch Trubisky (Week 3) ran in touchdowns against this defense. Beyond that, FantasyPros' Derek Brown contends this week's game against the Browns "has sneaky shootout potential" thanks to "hapless secondaries" on both sides. Brown went on to point out Mariota has been pushing the ball downfield, ranking 11th in deep attempts and third in air yards per attempt. The Browns have the eighth-highest explosive pass rate allowed. Mariota has seen the eighth-lowest pressure rate this year and should get clean pockets against a defense that ranks 21st in pressure rate and could well be without Myles Garrett (and perhaps Jadeveon Clowney again) this weekend. Zeidenfeld added, "Using him will allow you access to one-offs and secondary stacks that will cost a lot of salary around this extremely budget-friendly tournament stack."




I'm Out

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,700 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)

Yeah. There's a lot to like here. Lawrence has arguably been the league's top quarterback these past two weeks. He rebounded from a sub-par opener with the two best games of his pro career. He threw for 487 combined yards in those games, with five touchdowns, no turnovers and no sacks. He leads the league in completion percentage (76.8 percent). Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram have provided Lawrence with the kind of playmakers long missing in Jacksonville. But. ... As Cockroft notes, the Eagles have been one of the best-performing defenses against the pass through three weeks, almost entirely thanks to the stellar performance of their outside starting cornerbacks, Darius Slay (second-best minus-13.3 Targeted EPA, per Next Gen Stats) and James Bradberry (third-best minus-10.7 Targeted EPA). NBC Sports' Matthew Berry added to that, noting that through three weeks, Philadelphia's defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to put up just 11 fantasy points per game. The Eagles are top 5 in yards per pass attempt, completion rate, passer rating against and yards per play. They are also second in sacks and third in quarterback pressures. There are better matchups to exploit this week (see above).