DFS 3 and OUT 2017 WEEK 20 Conf Champ

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots

As the Sports Xchange suggested this week, Jacksonville's All-Pro cornerback combo of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye will be busy with the likes of wideouts Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan and tight end Rob Gronkowski, but dealing with Amendola might be the biggest matchup issue. The trusted veteran proved himself a clutch postseason contributor with 11 catches (on 13 targets) for 112 yards in the win over Tennessee. With Tom Brady looking to get rid of the ball quickly against the Jaguars' pass rush, he may be looking to Amendola out of the slot early and often, putting Jaguars nickel defender Aaron Colvin in the spotlight. That being the case, it's worth noting that Bouye allowed only 47 percent of passes thrown his way to be caught this year and Ramsey gave up just 51 percent. But Colvin gave up a 73 percent catch rate from the slot. As Profootballfocus.com put it, "There really isn't a weakness in this Jacksonville secondary, but New England figures to play the percentages, which means more Amendola is coming our way." And the veteran is affordable enough as well ($5500 on DraftKings; $6400 on FanDuel).

Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Sometimes the obvious is obvious for a reason. Heading into Foxboro this weekend, it's not hard to realize the Jaguars need to control the game and the clock. The best way to do that is to run the ball. They will do that by feeding Fournette on a regular basis. As the Xchange noted, against the Steelers, Fournette looked like he did the first half of the season when he was among the league's leading rushers. He gained 80 yards in his first 11 carries, but suffered an ankle sprain midway through the second quarter and only gained another 29 yards in 14 carries after intermission. He should be at full strength for Sunday's game and if so, will likely get 25-30 carries. As CBSSports.com noted, the rookie has 51 touches in the playoffs and the Jags should keep that pace up against a Patriots defense that finished the regular season No. 20 against the run and tied for 30th in average yards per rush allowed. I do have some concerns here. For one, the ankle. In addition, New England has historically done well against bigger, power backs including holding Derrick Henry to a mere 28 yards on 12 attempts last week, with a long run of just four yards. Oh, and Fournette's price ($7200 on DraftKings; $8500 on FanDuel). Still, I'm having a hard time finding backs I like better this week. The Patriots Dion Lewis tends to appeal to me weekly based on workload, but his price ($8100 on DraftKings; $7700 on FanDuel) seems high for a guy who hasn't scored as many touchdowns as I'd like (even if Rex Burkhead doesn't return, James White and/or Brandon Boldin are capable touchdown vultures).

Case Keenum, QB, Minnesota Vikings

If you're like me, you dig Stefon Diggs. You might also have a feelin' for Adam Thielen. Given their matchups with Eagles cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson, it's easy to understand why the Vikings' wideouts are appealing. For that matter, Kyle Rudolph, who was targeted eight times against New Orleans last weekend (the most targets he's seen in a game since Week 6) seems like a reasonably-priced option ($4500 on DraftKings; $6100 on FanDuel) as well -- his price is certainly more appealing than Gronkowski's ($7900 on DraftKings; $8400 on FanDuel) or Zach Ertz' ($5300 on DraftKings; $7000 on FanDuel). But Thielen ($7400 on DraftKings; $7400 on FanDuel), who lines up both inside and outside, and Diggs ($6900 on DraftKings; $6700 on FanDuel), have been especially productive, combining for 155 catches, 2,125 yards and 12 touchdowns. Thielen is second in the NFL in third-down receptions (33). The good news for Thielen and Diggs is that Jarius Wright is seeing more time in the slot, meaning more time on the outside for the other two. And as ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, the Eagles allowed an NFL-high 28.3 fantasy points per game to players lined up on the perimeter during the regular season. Worth noting, as CBSSports.com pointed out, Keenum has relied on Diggs more consistently down the stretch. He averaged eight targets in the Vikings' past five games and had at least five catches in all of them. But Thielen is going to be a factor. And so is Rudolph. So Keenum is obviously a way to get a piece of all three (as well as Wright and Jerick McKinnon). The bigger issue? The Eagles were No. 1 against the run this season, but were in the middle of the pack against the pass. The Vikings will need the air component to be the tip of their offensive spear in this one and Keenum ($6600 on DraftKings; $8000 on FanDuel) is the man with his hand on the wheel.

I'm Out

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

As Profootballtalk.com pointed out, before he joined the Eagles this year, Jeffery spent five years with the Bears and faced the Vikings nine times. Some of those were big days, including Jeffery's 249 yards and two touchdowns in a 2013 loss in Minnesota, and Jeffery wound up with seven touchdowns against the Vikings overall. That's the most he has against any team. But as PFT's Josh Alper noted, Jeffery ($4600 on DraftKings; $7300 on FanDuel) is used differently than he was in Chicago in a different offense with different players around him, so there may not be much to read into past matchups. But there's plenty to read into this one. Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes, an All-Pro corner, has been one of the best shutdown corners this season. Most of Jeffery's scores against the Vikings came before Rhodes shadowed top receivers, but that has changed. As Clay noted, Rhodes has had a successful 2017 season while shadowing the likes of Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Marvin Jones (twice), Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Devin Funchess and A.J. Green. Jeffery also has been struggling to connect with quarterback Nick Foles, who has completed only 11-of-22 passes to Jeffery for 137 yards and a touchdown since Carson Wentz was hurt. But this is more about Rhodes than Foles. Looking for a pivot on the Eagles might be tough. Torrey Smith ($3000 on DraftKings; $5400 on FanDuel) will see plenty of Rhodes' teammate Trae Waynes, who as Clay explained resents a much lighter matchup, but he has improved as the season has progressed. As for Nelson Agholor ($4800 on DraftKings; $6200 on FanDuel), Minnesota allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the slot during the regular season. So if you made me pick one of them, I'd go for the value with Smith and cross my fingers that the coverage funnels some targets his way.