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Crystal Ball week 17 2016

By Evan Tarracciano

With Week 16 officially in the books, the vast majority of Fantasy Football leagues have crowned a champion, and have now begun their long hibernation until August of 2017. The more hardcore crowd (which I’m sure involves all of our subscribers, after all we aren’t called “Football Diehards” for nothing) will still keep an eye on the horizon towards the NFL Combine and Draft, but the long waiting period has now begun.

So now what? Is there anything that owners can take away from 2016 as a lesson learned? Did the year go as many expected? Or did it play out differently than anticipated, and next year players should go in with a different set of expectations?

The draft strategy which was discussed ad nauseam prior to this year’s draft season was the “Zero RB”, where owners were encouraged to typically wait until the fifth or six round to even consider drafting a running back, preferring high end wide receivers or perhaps even a tight end instead. This idea largely coincided with the rising percentage of PPR formats, coupled with the data which suggests that receivers are less likely to get hurt than running backs, and when they do so, they miss less time.

So how did that strategy work? And should it be used again entering 2017? Did players who were drafted within the top 15 at each position return enough value?

As with most seasons, there was a fair number of “elite” players that performed as expected, not only at the wide receiver position, but quarterback as well. Examining wide receiver specifically since that is what this strategy focused on (and focusing upon the top 15 picks per Fantasy Pros ADP consensus (https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.php) here is how things shook out:
1. Antonio Brown – Brown was widely regarded as the “safest” pick in all of Fantasy Football in 2016, but had a slight drop-off compared to his projections by many experts. Entering Week 17 (where he likely won’t play), Brown has 106 receptions for 1,284 yards and 12 touchdowns. Staggering totals to be sure, but they pale in comparison to the last three seasons where he averaged 125 receptions for 1,677 yards and 10 touchdowns. The return of Le’veon Bell coupled with the emergence of alternative viable receiving threats in Ladarius Green and Eli Rodgers put a significant dent in Brown’s overall targets.
2. Odell Beckham Jr. – “OBJ” caused plenty of his owners agita during the first four weeks of the season when he failed to catch a touchdown, before going on an absolute tear. He’s currently the third ranked receiver, and his numbers were nearly identical to many projections.
3. Julio Jones – Some would argue that Jones didn’t fall completely short of his projections as he is ranked seventh at WR, but this is yet another season mired by injuries and “what could have been” for him. Jones missing Weeks 14 and 15 due to turf toe hampered many owners from reaching the championship game, but the extreme production he put forth from weeks 4-10 ensured several victories.
4. DeAndre Hopkins – Hopkins fall from grace has to be one of the biggest draft busts in recent memory. Widely considered a lock for a repeat of 2015’s numbers (111-1,521-11) given the signing of Brock Osweiler, Hopkins fell short in every aspect, even after his slight resurgence when Tom Savage took over. His 71-831-4 currently has him only ranked 36th.
5. A.J. Green – The good news for Green owners? When healthy, he delivered (or in some cases, exceeded) the numbers that many experts had him pegged for this season. Through Week 10, Green was averaging 7 receptions for 107 yards and a chance of a touchdown each week – elite, WR1 numbers to be sure. We all know what happened after that, with him hamstring injury costing him the remainder of the year. So much for that!
6. Allen Robinson – Do we really need to dive into this one? Robinson echoed the disappointment of Hopkins – a combination of drops, poor quarterback play and being shadowed by elite talent produced a massive letdown. His 68-801-6 final numbers are mid-tier WR2 numbers, rather than elite WR1.
7. Dez Bryant – Bryant’s 2016 was truly all over the place, a fine mixture of big games (Weeks 8-11 specifically), duds (Weeks 12-14) and injuries. Drafted as the 7th WR in terms of ADP, Bryant currently sits at 31, and is unlikely to play given that the Dallas Cowboys already clinched a first round bye. Given the team’s elite offensive line and superstar running back, Bryant wasn’t nearly as much of a focal point in the team’s attack.
8. Brandon Marshall - Woof. Despite entering the season at 32 years old, Marshall was considered consistent enough to be selected as a low-end WR1, in part due to the volume that he received, regardless of what team he was laying for. Many thought that he wouldn’t duplicate 2015’s 109-1,502-14 line, but I’m sure that imagined he would finish the season as poor as his current 59-788-3. This can’t be pegged entirely on Marshall – Ryan Fitzpatrick was dreadful, and Bryce Petty simply didn’t look his way. He’s certainly out of the top 15 next year.
9. Jordy Nelson - Finally, someone who owners can be happy about. Nelson entered 2016 with plenty of question marks, from his age, role in the offense following the breakout of Davante Adams, and recovery from major surgery. None of that seemed to matter to him, and after he shed off some rust the first few weeks of the season, he proved he is still a major force. While none of his current totals are career-highs (91-1,191-14), he is the second ranked receiver in PPR formats, and figures to be a lock for top 5 next year.
10. Mike Evans – I wrote about Evans as my breakout star of 2016, and he certainly came through for owners who took a shot on him during their drafts. Evans staggering 164 targets through the end of last week is a major reason why his owners have to be so excited – Tampa Bay’s offense flows through him, similar to Antonio Brown. He currently has 91 receptions for 1,256 yards and 11 touchdowns. Evans delivered.
11. Keenan Allen – There isn’t much to say here, as Allen only played a handful of snaps due to a torn ACL. Not that I would wish injury upon anyone, but it was a shame that this didn’t happen during Training Camp instead. His owners really regretted his absence.
12. Alshon Jeffery - Yet another disappointment. Jeffery not only failed to live up to his WR2 billing, but failed to produce the most fantasy points at WR for his own team in PPR formats. A four-game suspension due to a failed drug test put a major crimp in his production, along with the injury to Jay Cutler.
13. Amari Cooper – The good news for Cooper owners is that in the overall sense of the season, he performed exactly as expected. He entered the year ranked as the 13th best WR, and will finish it at 13. The bad news then? Cooper is incredibly inconsistent due to the teams sudden propensity to stop targeting him in favor of Michael Crabtree, especially at the end of the year. While it does help to have a strong complimentary piece, “Crabbypatty” caps Cooper’s upside.
14. Brandin Cooks – In part because the New Orleans Saints have so many weapons (coinciding with the rise of Michael Thomas), Cooks caused plenty of headaches for his owners in 2016. Five games he caught four passes or less, which suggests that he was either a major part of the team’s gameplan that week, or not involved at all. He’s an elite talent, but maddening to own.
15. Sammy Watkins – Similar to A.J. Green, Watkins performed well enough when he was actually on the field, but a lingering foot injury cost him to miss eight weeks, roughly half of the Fantasy season. No one can predict injuries so it is hard to come down on Watkins too much, but to have it happen to someone who owners likely drafted as their WR1/2 really hurts. Additionally, Watkins was a popular breakout pick this year.

Now that we’ve examined the top 15 selections that people with the “Zero RB” strategy gravitated towards, what should owners take out of it? Clearly it’s a mixed bag, but more often than not the wide receiver fell short of expectations that both owners and experts had. While fine in theory, and certainly justified due to the rampant injury bug which plagued RBs during 2015, owners who used the “Zero RB” strategy really needed their WR2/3 selections to hit. Granted, there were plenty of receivers that met or exceeded expectations per their early season draft ADP – T.Y. Hilton, Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald and Sterling Shepard to name a few. But for all of those who returned value, there were many more who fell short - Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin, Michael Floyd and Josh Gordon (just to name a few who were in the top 30!).

Now the logical train of thought would then be to compare other positions with their ADP and see how they faired compared to end of season rankings.

Running back also experienced its fair share of disappointments (namely in Todd Gurley’s sophomore slump and Adrian Peterson’s injury, but of the top 15 projected backs, over half finished within the top 15 at the end of the season.
1. Todd Gurley (currently 19th)
2. David Johnson (1)
3. Adrian Peterson (unraked)
4. Ezekiel Elliott (2)
5. Lamar Miller (14)
6. Le'Veon Bell (3)
7. Devonta Freeman (6)
8. Eddie Lacy (unranked)
9. Mark Ingram (10)
10. Jamaal Charles (unranked)
11. Doug Martin (50)
12. LeSean McCoy (4)
13. C.J. Anderson (42)
14. Latavius Murray (12)
15. Carlos Hyde (16)

Does this necessarily mean that running backs are inherently “safer” to draft next season than receivers? No. But to put all of your eggs into the “all running backs will miss time and there aren’t any bellcows and they never return value” basket is foolish.

The other metric which needs to be considered is return on investment. Does a player who is drafted as the best at his position finishing 15th within it truly count as a “hit”? Not really – owners need players who they drafted within the first few rounds to carry their team and provide them with a stable floor.

If we use that same comparison to quarterbacks, lets see how they fared:
1. Cam Newton (15)
2. Aaron Rodgers (1)
3. Russell Wilson (16)
4. Andrew Luck (4)
5. Drew Brees (3)
6. Ben Roethlisberger (10)
7. Carson Palmer (19)
8. Tom Brady (11)
9. Eli Manning (21)
10. Blake Bortles (13)
11. Philip Rivers (14)
12. Derek Carr (7)
13. Kirk Cousins (6)
14. Tyrod Taylor (8)
15. Jameis Winston (17)

Interesting. Of the top 15 quarterbacks drafted, 11 finished as top 15 options. Sure, there was clearly an “A list” tier, comprised of Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. But the next dozen or so options had similar numbers. Overall, owners were likely happy with their return here.

I’ll be clearly before proceeding – tight end was an absolute dumpster fire in 2016. I tore my hair out getting questions about players that owners were considering as FLEX worthy and their potential upside. Outside of Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, Delanie Walker and Kyle Rudolph, there were very few week-in, week-out starting options. And even the players I just mentioned had plenty of subpar weeks. Plenty of pundits were dead-set convinced that all teams would adopt two tight ends as the “wave of the future” following the Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez era, but that simply hasn’t happened. If anything, teams have become more inclined to let them stay in and block if needed more than ever, causing for a total tailspin. Consider this – entering Week 17, all but four tight ends have 70 receptions or less, and all but three have 7 touchdowns or less. Yuck.
1. Rob Gronkowski (23)
2. Jordan Reed (8)
3. Greg Olsen (2)
4. Travis Kelce (1)
5. Delanie Walker (4)
6. Coby Fleener (13)
7. Gary Barnidge (19)
8. Antonio Gates (16)
9. Zach Ertz (11)
10. Julius Thomas (32)
11. Tyler Eifert (25)
12. Jimmy Graham (3)
13. Martellus Bennett (7)
14. Jason Witten (9)
15. Dwayne Allen (24)

Cripes. I won’t go into a ton of detail here, but suffice to say that there was plenty of heartbreak, as nearly half the top ten failed to crack the top 15. As I mentioned earlier, this was a particularly bad year for tight ends.

So I’ve asked this before and I’ll ask it again – given the above data, where does that lead us heading into 2017? It seems like there was a fair share of busts at all positions (which can be said of nearly every year), a number of injuries to top-tier talent (which can be said of nearly every year) and a handful of breakout stars (which can be said of nearly every year).

For me, I’ll still stick to the strategy which has provided me with plenty of success over my Fantasy career. Regardless of league format, I’ll heavily invest in top-tier running back talent – especially those who are capable of catching 3 or more passes a game. I’ll focus on veteran receivers rather than taking a chance that a rookie hits (here’s looking at you, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, etc.). After I’ve filled my roster with 5-6 RB/WRs, I’ll then focus on the QB position. As I alluded to earlier, outside of the top 3-4 players, there appears to be very little difference from a per-week basis in a VERY deep position. This will all be followed by TE, DEF and finally K.

There is a Led Zeppelin song called “The Song Remains the Same”, and the title is strangely applicable here. Fantasy Football is predictably unpredictable. While some strategies may make sense for fleeting moments, more often than not they die the way of the “Wildcat” formation.