DFS Three And Out 2021 week 10

Hey! What's life without a little risk? It's boring. So I like to spice up my tournament lineups with a bit of danger. Here are three risky assets I'll be investing in for tournament (GPP) play from this game this week. ... And one I'm not.


 

I'm In

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,600 on DraftKings; $8,300 on FanDuel)

Sometimes the obvious choice is also a really good choice. Even when there's a more risk than usual involved. As ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld noted this week, "Brady has been one of the most bankable tournament assets this season in DFS, with five games of four-plus touchdowns and three of those coming in his last four starts." So that's a pretty good starting point. Of course, there are concerns. What about the injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin? My hope is that drives down ownership. I'm not suggesting those concerns aren't legitimate, although I'm still holding out hope Godwin hits the field. What I am suggesting is there's ample reason to believe Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate -- and perhaps Breshad Perriman if the team needs to promote him from the practice squad -- are capable of getting the job done. Remember, the Football Team has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers (fifth most over expected), including the most to the perimeter and second most to the slot. They've allowed the third-most receptions and receiving yards, as well as the third-most touchdowns to the position. In fact, as Zeidenfeld further noted, 73.6 percent of the yards gained against Washington come through the air, the fourth-highest rate in the league. I'll take my chances here, thank you very much.

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills ($4,700 on DraftKings; $6,000 on FanDuel)

Call this a potential target of opportunity as Singletary's value here depends on Zack Moss. More specifically, it depends on Moss missing this game. The second-year back is in the league's concussion protocol. He was on the practice field Thursday, but in a non-contact jersey. If he's cleared. You'll want to pivot away from Singletary. But it it's a one-man show? As FanDuel.com's Isaiah De Los Santos suggests, the likelihood that Singletary absorbs most of Moss' rushing work (10.3 attempts per game this season) and receiving looks (3.5 targets per game) would make him a serious starting option rather than fringe flex play. In last week's game against the Jags, Singletary had 16 yards on six carries, but seven receptions (eight targets) for 43 yards. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Over the last three weeks alone, the Jets have seen four different running backs -- Damien Harris (Week 7), Joe Mixon (Week 8) and Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines (Week 9) -- score 20-plus points against them. The matchup combined with a Moss absence would make Singletary almost a must-play -- certainly given his price -- against a defense that has allowed 15 TD runs and is giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season.

Dan Arnold, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,500 on DraftKings; $5,100 on FanDuel)

I know what you're wondering. What's the risk here? Okay. ... First, his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, appears to be on track to play but is dealing with a low-ankle sprain. And if that doesn't seem risky enough, how about this? He's a Jaguar. ... Still, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft pointed out, Arnold has seen a huge expansion in his role since his trade to the Jaguars. That's especially true in the two weeks since Jacksonville's bye, during which Arnold leads the entire team with 24.8 PPR fantasy points and a 23 percent target share while playing 66 percent of the offensive snaps. Better still, the 6-6 Arnold, has a great matchup this week against the Colts, who have allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends, tied for second-most. In fact, they've allowed tight ends to catch 10-of-11 red-zone targets on the season.

I'm Out

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos ($5,600 on DraftKings; $6,600 on FanDuel)

No, this isn't a risky play because Sutton was only targeted twice in a huge win over the Cowboys last Sunday. It's risky because that appears to be continuing a trend. As FantasyPros points out, Sutton's targets "have disappeared" since Jerry Jeudy came back (16 percent and 8 percent shares the past two weeks). In fact, Sutton has a total of 18 fantasy points during the three games Jeudy has played this season. The diminishing workload is even riskier when viewed in light of this week's matchup. As Cockroft put it, "Darius Slay, the Eagles' standout cornerback, has been a nightmare matchup for opposing wide receivers, at least those who line up mostly on the perimeter as Sutton typically does." In fact, Cockroft notes, since Tyreek Hill scored 47 PPR fantasy points against this defense in Week 4, here's what Slay's primary opponent has done: D.J. Moore scored 8 points (Week 5), Mike Evans scored 4 (Week 6), Henry Ruggs III scored 7 (Week 7), Kalif Raymond was shut out (Week 8) and Mike Williams scored 7 (Week 9). ESPN's Mike Clay notes that Sutton and Slay have met in the past, with Slay (then with Detroit) shadowing Sutton in a Week 16 matchup in 2019. Sutton posted a 5-41-0 receiving line on 10 targets in the game, with 3-23-0 coming on seven targets (21 routes) against Slay. Adding to all that, Clay reminded readers that Keenan Allen crushed the Eagles last week working mostly out of the slot; Jeudy ($5,300 on DraftKings; $6,200 on FanDuel has run out of the slot 75 percent of the time this season.