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DFS Three And Out 2019 week 20
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
In their 37-8 loss to the 49ers in November, the Packers did none of the things they did in last Sunday's Divisional Playoff win over the Seahawks. In their last trip to Santa Clara, the Packers' offense averaged 2.8 yards per play. Aaron Rodgers had 104 passing yards. Aaron Jones had 38 rushing yards. The 49ers' defense had five sacks (and the unit is coming off a win over the Vikings in which it had six). Adams caught seven passes and had a touchdown in that Week 12 tilt against the Niners, but it was all dink-and-dunk stuff that led to just 43 total yards. Per NFL NextGen Stats, the Niners' top cover man, Richard Sherman, lined up at the left cornerback spot for every snap against the Packers in that first meeting. He only covered Adams on 46 percent of his routes. Adams didn't have much success matched up against Sherman with just one catch for seven yards. Still, with Sherman lined up on one side of the field, the Packers will have the flexibility to move Adams around to find more favorable matchups (that could include using him in the slot or even out of the backfield). So what about the guy opposite Sherman? According to FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere, over the last five games, Ahkello Witherspoon has allowed 24-of-31 passing for 314 yards and six touchdowns in his coverage. He allowed a long touchdown to Stefon Diggs last week that got him benched for Emmanuel Moseley, an undrafted free agent from last year. Not to be overlooked, Adams is on a serious roll with 472 receiving yards and four touchdowns over the last four games (including his eight-catch, 160-yard outing vs. the Seahawks last weekend) and the Packers obviously need their star wideout to continue his red-hot form on Sunday. In addition to Adams' recent dominance, as Fansided.com's Freddie Boston reminded his readers this week, Michael Thomas' Week 14 performance against the 49ers offers reason for optimism. Thomas beat Sherman on multiple occasions as he crushed San Francisco's defense with 11 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers also gave up over 100 yards to both Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee in a matchup against the Rams in Week 16. While it would be helpful to the Packers if another wideout (or two) could step up and take some pressure off, it's fair to assume Adams' overall role in the offense won't change. That volume, combined with Rodgers' chemistry with his top downfield threat, make Adams' TD-upside (he has six touchdown catches in seven career postseason games -- including the last three -- and he leads the NFL with 40 receiving scores since 2015) a strong play tournament play, regardless of matchup and price ($8,300 on FanDuel; $7,900 on DraftKings), which in this case is steep. Why Adams over Kansas City's (slightly-less expensive) Tyreek Hill ($7,400 on FanDuel; $7,200 on DraftKings)? Consistent targets. That said, I'm not against rolling out Hill either.
Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
A year after scoring four postseason touchdowns last January, Williams was back at it last Sunday with three trips to the end zone against the Texans. His first score -- a 17-yard pass from Patrick Mahomes -- ignited the Chiefs' rally while his final two touchdowns built Kansas City's lead. In the first meeting between these teams, Williams was solid, rushing 19 times for 77 yards and catching all five of his targets for 32 yards. Without a doubt, Hill and Travis Kelce are the focal points of Kansas City's high-octane offense. Throughout the week, the Titans are undoubtedly spending countless hours configuring ways to slow down Hill and Kelce. But as ClutchPoints.com's Skyler Carlin suggested, while they game plan for those two, Williams is a forgotten weapon in the offense. In his first six seasons in the NFL, Williams has proven that he can be a dual-threat running back. Therefore, there are times where Mahomes finds Williams and allows the dynamic running back to make a play. At the same time, the Chiefs could use a controlled ground attack versus Tennessee. If that's the case, Williams will be the lead. During the regular season, the Chiefs often featured multiple backs during the course of games. But Williams played 59 of 61 offensive snaps against the Texans (96.7 percent), leaving two snaps for McCoy and Darwin Thompson. As Tagliere put it, "Williams is the workhorse running back on a team that's projected for nearly 30 points." Again, Derrick Henry ($9,800 on FanDuel; $8,700 on DraftKings) and Jones ($7,800 on FanDuel; $6,700 on DraftKings) are also solid plays at the position, but Williams' ($7,600 on FanDuel; $7,000 on DraftKings) pricing and receiving role are appealing enough and might give you some flexibility to roll out Henry, Mahomes, Adams, or high-end TEs Kelce and George Kittle.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Bourne earned the 49ers highest Pro Football Focus grade on offense (84.2 overall) in the team's Divisional Playoff win over the Vikings. The third-year wideout hauled in three catches for 40 yards, including a three-yard touchdown on the 49ers opening drive of the game. All three of his catches resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. On the year, 26 of his 33 catches (78.8 percent) have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. But there's more. As Tagliere pointed out, Bourne has now caught a touchdown in five of the last 10 games. The downside is that he's failed to top 42 yards in any of those games, meaning he's touchdown-or-bust for your DFS lineup." And that's okay -- especially in tournament formats. It's even better given Bourne's price ($5,400 on FanDuel; $4,200 on DraftKings). That said, there are other options who fit the bill here. Allen Lazard ($5,100 on FanDuel; $4,400 on DraftKings), Corey Davis ($4700 on FanDuel; $4,000 on DraftKings), Tajae Sharpe ($4700 on FanDuel; $3,100 on DraftKings) and Khalif Raymond ($4,500 on FanDuel; $3,400 on DraftKings) and your Kansas City outlier of choice -- Sammy Watkins ($5,200 on FanDuel; $4,600 on DraftKings), Mecole Hardman ($4,900 on FanDuel; $3,800 on DraftKings) or Demarcus Robinson ($4,700 on FanDuel; $3,300 on DraftKings) -- are among those also qualifying as viable dart tosses along with Bourne.
Tevin Coleman, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Coleman tied for his second highest output of the season with 105 yards on a season-high 22 carries and two touchdowns against the Vikings. Of his 105 rushing yards, 61 came after contact, also a season high. Coleman forced four missed tackles, tying another season high for him. Eight of his 22 carries resulted in either a first down or touchdown, the most of any 49ers running back this season. He also became the first 49ers running back with two or more rushing touchdowns in a postseason game since Frank Gore had two rushing touchdowns at Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Conference game in 2013. So it was a great showing. It also came in a game that Matt Breida actually started. Also in one that Raheem Mostert, coming off an illness, was dealing with cramping in his calf. So sure, I like Coleman's price. I'm just not sold on his role. It could be similar to last week. Or not. The 49ers running backs totaled 42 carries against the Vikings (with none of them pulling in a reception). While many will assume Coleman has stolen that job back, Tagliere isn't so sure, as that was the first time he totaled more than 12 carries since Week 7. San Jose Mercury News 49ers beat writer Cam Inman, during a Wednesday appearance with the FootballDiehards on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports radio, suggested the same. In fact, Inman's gut feeling is that Mostert, who will be "fresher after a light week" is the better bet against the Packers. Indeed, Tagliere added, "If there's one constant in this backfield, it's been Mostert, who has received at least 11 touches in each of the last six games. The funny part is that Mostert and Coleman have the same exact number of carries on the season, yet Mostert has 228 more yards and two more rushing touchdowns." And there's the rub. Roles and production vary here and all three are viable tournament plays. That being the case, Coleman's price ($6,500 on FanDuel; $5,700 on DraftKings) might make him the least appealing of the group with Mostert ($5,800 on FanDuel; $4,300 on DraftKings) and Breida ($5,000 on FanDuel; $3,400 on DraftKings) both being more-reasonably priced dart tosses given their pricing.