DFS Three And Out 2018 Week 10

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Tyrell Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,500 on DraftKings; $6,500 on FanDuel)

Williams has started seven of eight games and his production is noteworthy. The veteran wideout has had two 100-yard receiving games this season and has posted his first multi-touchdown game. Over the last three games, he's caught four touchdown passes, the last one in Seattle last week which was a difficult back-shoulder snag on a fade route, despite being covered well. This week, he goes up against an Oakland defense that's, ummmm. ... Shall we say, struggling (going for kindness here)? As ESPN's Mike Clay noted this week, all the Chargers' wideouts are appealing this week. But Williams has now found the end zone five times in eight games and as ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld points out, Tyrell is on the field more than Mike Williams (out-snapping his second-year teammate in each of the past six games. Zeidenfeld added, Tyrell is a high-ceiling tournament play for the price. By the way, also play Allen, the other Williams, Melvin Gordon and/or Philip Rivers if you so desire. Did I mention Oakland's defense isn't very good right now?

Maurice Harris, WR, Washington Redskins ($3,900 on DraftKings; $5,900 on FanDuel)

Harris is coming off a career game with 10 receptions for 124 yards. No Redskins receiver had topped 100 yards in a game since Nov. 23, 2017. As Zeidenfeld suggested, receivers don't catch 10 passes in a single game by accident. The other wide receivers with 10-plus catches over the past month include Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams and Adam Thielen. In addition, Harris has not been playing his natural position. He's filled in for Jamison Crowder in recent weeks as the slot receiver recovered from an ankle injury. With Paul Richardson (shoulder surgery) landing on injured reserve this week, Harris likely inherits the outside Z-receiver role. That’s assuming Crowder, who is working on a limited basis this week, is good to go Sunday at Tampa Bay. Otherwise, the Redskins might keep Harris inside. Either way, the matchups aren't scary here. As Clay pointed out, Vernon Hargreaves is already on injured reserve and M.J. Stewart missed Week 9 with an injury. Javien Elliott is the next man up. Tampa Bay has given up the most fantasy points to slot receivers this season -- but they've been pretty leaky in general.

Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns ($4,700 on DraftKings; $5,600 on FanDuel)

Of the handful of positives to emerge from last week's loss to the Chiefs, capping another stormy week of change and uncertainty in Cleveland, Johnson's two-touchdown performance was at the top of the list. After being overlooked for much of the season, Johnson was the primary focus of the Browns' offensive game plan. He finished with nine catches for 78 yards, added one rush for eight and drew extra attention from Kansas City's defense, which allowed his teammates to make plays. Yes, the Cleveland running game centers around Nick Chubb (403 yards, seven TDs) but it's Johnson who presents the biggest challenge to Atlanta's defense as a receiver and with his breakaway speed in the open field. Beyond that, Zeidenfeld pointed out the fact that five running backs have scored 12 or more points solely as pass catchers against Atlanta this season. But this is not a new thing as the Falcons have allowed the most running back receptions in each of the past three seasons. Better still, they're on pace to allow 24 more
RB receptions this season than in any of those previous three seasons.

I'm Out

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($5,700 on DraftKings; $7,000 on FanDuel)

Don't look now, but the Colts' passing attack is suddenly becoming very tight end-centric. Eric Ebron got the bulk of the work until Jack Doyle returned from a five-game absence and gobbled up the lion's share of the targets against the Raiders. Meanwhile, Erik Swoope and even Mo Alie-Cox have been contributors as well. In fact, Indianapolis tight ends rank second in the NFL in catches (62) and targets (98), fifth in yards (711) and lead all tight ends with 12 touchdown catches. If the Colts tight ends keep catching touchdowns at this rate, they will tie the 2011 New England Patriots for the most touchdowns by tight ends in one season in NFL history (24). Meanwhile, Jaguars All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey has shadowed opposing receivers four times this year (Odell Beckham, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins and Alshon Jeffery), which likely means it’ll happen for Hilton as well. Indeed, Ramsey shadowed Hilton in both matchups last year, in which Hilton caught four-of-10 targets for 73 yards, three first downs and one touchdown while matched up with Ramsey. Ramsey had four pass breakups and an interception. Since entering the league back in 2016, Ramsey has shadowed Hilton at least part time each of the four times these teams have met. According to Clay, Hilton has lined up against Ramsey on 104 of his 168 routes during that span, totaling 25 targets, 12 catches for 154 yards and one touchdown on those plays. I think I'll not be paying for that thank you. Now those tight ends? They might be another story.