DFS Three And Out 2020 week 14
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
A one-per-position edition (because I like having a theme).
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,800 on DraftKings; $8,300 on FanDuel)
Herbert attempted 53 passes against the Patriots last Sunday, but the rookie quarterback was limited to 209 yards, zero touchdowns and a pair of interceptions in a shocking 45-0 loss. The debacle marks the first game of Herbert's career in which he didn't throw at least one touchdown. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, he also went without a carry for the first time and his 3.9 yards per attempt was easily his worst single-game mark. Herbert has now posted back-to-back underwhelming performances (one total TD against the Bills and Patriots) after he threw at least two touchdowns in seven consecutive games. So what's the appeal here? Hello Atlanta. ... As ESPN's Matthew Berry notes, the Falcons defense gives up the third-most passing yards per game on the season, and quarterbacks with 33-plus pass attempts against them this season average 24.2 fantasy points. Herbert is averaging 41 attempts this year. Beyond that, FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere notes the Falcons have allowed 300.7 passing yards per game on average and 322 rushing yards (3rd-most) and six rushing touchdowns (most in NFL) to quarterbacks this season. Rebound, meet Herbert, who heading into this week, has completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3,224 yards and 23 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. Not your cup of tea? I like Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins as well.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears ($6,500 on DraftKings; $6,600 on FanDuel)
As the Chicago Tribune noted, since returning from the open date and after missing the Week 10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings with a concussion, Montgomery has been a catalyst in the offense's recent resurgence. In losses to the Green Bay Packers and Lions, he has turned 28 carries into 175 yards and scored two touchdowns. He also has added nine catches for 79 yards. But as ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld notes, that receiving role isn't a recent development. With Tarik Cohen sidelined, Montgomery has brought with him a very solid pass game floor with at least 30 receiving yards in 5 of the 8 games since Cohen went down and at least 16 touches in 7 straight games. All of which is promising enough. But this week he goes up against a Houston defense allowing a league high 139.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs on 5.2 yards per carry, also worst in the league. As a result, they're giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position on the season and tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to running backs.
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans ($5,700 on DraftKings; $6800 on FanDuel)
If you haven't been paying attention, allow me to get you back up to speed: Davis continues to come up big for the Titans. The former first-round pick caught 11 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown this past Sunday. Davis now has had four 100-yard receiving games this season after having only two combined over the past three seasons. Through 12 games, Davis leads the Titans with 53 catches for 801 yards and is averaging 15.1 yards per catch. Better still, as Rotoworld.com notes, Davis is the 14th highest scoring receiver in fantasy football over the past five weeks and he's drawn seven red-zone targets over those five games, two more than A.J. Brown, who was unable to practice Wednesday or Thursday due to a new injury (to his ankle). As Berry points out, Davis also has multiple deep receptions in three of his past four games, while the Jaguars are giving up deep touchdown passes at the fourth-highest rate this season. But the Jaguars' inability to cover wideouts isn't limited to that. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (third-most over the past month). Attrition has been a major issue. Unless Sidney Jones returns from an Achilles injury this week, Jacksonville will still be without four of its top-five corners (Jones, CJ Henderson, D.J. Hayden and Chris Claybrooks). That attrition is a big reason why Diontae Johnson (23 fantasy points), Chase Claypool (16), Jarvis Landry (28), Justin Jefferson (27) and Adam Thielen (22) have come up big against them over the last three weeks. Davis has double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 10 games. Expect him to add to that Sunday.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,000 on DraftKings; $5,600 on FanDuel)
Jalen Hurts will make his first NFL start, replacing the struggling Carson Wentz. Hurts replaced Wentz early in the second half of the loss to the Packers on Sunday. He completed 5 of 12 passes for 109 yards, including an impressive 32-yard touchdown throw to Greg Ward in which he scrambled away from pressure and threw a strike on the run. He also had an earlier 34-yard completion to fellow rookie Jalen Reagor. As Tagliere notes, Goedert caught all five of his receptions in Week 13 with Wentz under center. Going through Hurts' 12 pass attempts last week, Tagliere notes that Goedert was targeted just once, while Zach Ertz saw two of them. So there's some uncertainty there. But that's not why Goedert is here. As Tagliere put it, "We can't say anything definitive with Hurts under center, but this matchup causes all sorts of doubt." And that's the thing. As Berry noted, since Week 7, the Saints are giving up a league-low 3.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, including zero touchdowns allowed to the position (that includes games against Hayden Hurst and Rob Gronkowski). I'll circle back around on Goedert another week, but I'm out this week.