DFS Three And Out 2020 week 5
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers ($5,900 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
While I'm fine playing either of his top downfield threats, Robby Anderson and/or D.J. Moore, I'm also fine going to the source of their production. Or stacking them. And, as ESPN's Matthew Berry laid it out, here's why: "They are playing the Falcons. There. That's my analysis. Fine, you really need more? They are allowing a league-high 32.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year." If you're stacking, or even if you're just playing Bridgewater, it's worth noting the Falcons have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. As ESPN's Tristan Cockroft suggests, last week's Green Bay Packers game presented a good illustration of this favorable matchup: Even without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, Aaron Rodgers managed 29.6 points against the Falcons. Of course, Bridgewater must be capable enough to leverage that matchup. And so far, in nine starts as a starting quarterback since his recovery from a 2016 knee injury, he has averaged 16.9 fantasy points in those starts, while saving his two best individual scores -- 27.3 against the Buccaneers in Week 5 of last season, and 26.2 against the Arizona Cardinals last week -- for his most advantageous matchups on paper. This week offers a similar opportunity at a very reasonable price.
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants ($4,800 on DraftKings; $5,800 on FanDuel)
Look, nobody pushed Daniel Jones harder this summer than I did (although I certainly wasn't alone in that). And if you can't play Jones this week, when can you? Safe to say the price ($5400 on DraftKings; $7,000 on FanDuel) is right for the second-year signal caller (albeit more so on DraftKings than on FanDuel). So is the matchup. Given all that, I'm not remotely against playing Jones. I absolutely will have him in lineups. But Slayton will be there too, most likely in more than his QB shows up in for me. Remember, Jones has only tossed two touchdown passes this year. Both were in Week 1. Both were to Slayton. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are allowing touchdowns on 34 percent of drives, giving up 12 scores with just one interception on 139 pass attempts this year. The Cowboys are giving up the third-most WR fantasy points in the league and the second most to the perimeter. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, Slayton aligns outside 87 percent of the time, so he's positioned to take advantage of Dallas' weak spot. Clay added, "Slayton is known for his boom/bust performances, and this week is set up very well for a boom." I'm investing like the boom is coming because (at least on DraftKings) Slayton is cheaper than weekly busts like T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green and James Washington to name just a few.
Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,000 on DraftKings; $5,100 on FanDuel)
It's safe to say we're mostly targeting this matchup. For the obvious reason. According to Cockroft, the Eagles just surrendered only the sixth 40-point PPR effort by an individual tight end in the past 30 years, and while that individual was George Kittle, that he became the first tight end in history with at least 15 catches and 175 receiving yards in a game shows how much an elite player at his position can benefit from such a matchup. Cockroft was quick to concede that Ebron is no Kittle, but Ebron also has a 16 percent target share (12 of 76) in the Steelers' past two games, including one end zone target that he converted for a score. But it does go beyond the last two games. ESPN.com's Jim McCormick points out that Ebron is second on the Steelers this season in routes run. But mostly it's the matchup. ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld put a finer point on it when he wrote: "Against Philadelphia, quarterbacks have gone 26-of-30 for 276 yards and five touchdowns when targeting tight ends. That's more touchdowns than incompletions!" Looking at some of the more expensive plays at the position on both the major sites, it's fair to wonder what they're missing here.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,300 on DraftKings; $6,900 on FanDuel)
Man. ... Mixon showed up in a big way last week, running the ball 25 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns while also catching six passes for 30 yards and a touchdown in a 33-25 victory over the Jaguars. This is the Mixon we drafted heading into the season. Even with a slow start, last week's game moves him up to fifth in the NFL with 315 rushing yards and averages 4.1 yards per carry. The desire to ride the hot hand is understandable and I wholly endorse that -- in season-long. Okay. I'll admit, I'm not all optimistic about his prospects in season-long play this week, but I understand why we want to get the necessary return on our investment in draft capital might prompt you to keep him in your lineups this week. Fortunately, this is not season-long and we can easily avoid a very tough matchup against a Ravens defense that hasn't allowed a running back to gain more than 72 yards on the ground this year, which as FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere points out, includes games against Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, David Johnson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Beyond that, as Cockroft notes, Mixon himself has struggled mightily against this defense, averaging 0.58 PPR points per touch and 0.31 per offensive snap played in six career meetings, both well beneath his 0.77 and 0.39 overall averages. And, as Rotoworld's Josh Norris pointed out, negative game scripts destroyed Mixon's ceilings earlier this season, as he failed to score in even the RB2 range in games where the Bengals tied or lost. Also, in case you haven't guessed, I'm thinking Baltimore wins this one.