DFS Three And Out 2020 week 13

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.


 

I'm In

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings ($7,300 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel) or Justin Jefferson, WR Minnesota Vikings ($6,900 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel)

I know. A two-for-one recommendation isn't the norm. But this isn't your run-of-the-mill favorable matchup, either. As ESPN's Mike Clay noted, Jacksonville was down four of its top-five corners (C.J. Henderson, Sidney Jones, D.J. Hayden and Chris Claybrooks) against Cleveland last Sunday -- the one that allowed Jarvis Landry to have his best game of the season despite Nick Chubb rushing for 144 yards as well -- and will be in the same boat this week if Jones is unable to return from an Achilles injury. Even if Jones returns, the toothless Jaguars' secondary has nothing for the Vikings' heavily-targeted wide receiver duo of Thielen and Jefferson. The Jaguars have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including 11th most to the perimeter. They're among the five worst defenses in both categories over the past month -- allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four games -- as the injuries have piled up. Jefferson has seen 29 targets over the last three games. And, as ESPN's Matthew Berry noted, every target Jefferson gets is a chance for a big-time play: He leads all NFL receivers with 12.6 yards per target. So I'm fine playing that. Also, Thielen, after sitting out on the reserve COVID-19 list last week, has already posted a career-best 11 touchdowns. Adding to the appeal here, Kirk Cousins has been playing well. How well? As Berry noted, over the past four weeks, only Aaron Rodgers has more touchdown passes and the Jaguars allow the second-most touchdown passes per game and yards per pass attempt in 2020. And if you're worried about gamescript, FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere points out that even though they haven't been especially productive on offense (or competitive in general), the Jaguars have still allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. So take your pick kids. They're evenly (and reasonably) enough priced to make either or both work if you're of a mind.

Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears ($6,900 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel)

In the grand tradition established by former Houston Texans' great Andre Johnson, who was among the league's most productive wideouts despite playing with as mediocre a group of QBs as you can imagine (Ken Dorsey, Rex Grossman, Tom Savage, David Carr, Tony Banks, Sage Rosenfels, T.J. Yates, Jake Delhomme, Matt Leinart, Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallett and Ryan Fitzpatrick among them), I've issued certain receivers something I call the "Quarterback-Proof Card." Not to be confused with the "Matchup-Proof Card" (but often issued to the same players), the "Quarterback-Proof Card" means I don't care who a receiver's quarterback is any given Sunday. I still like that receiver. Robinson earned his card in Jacksonville and he has retained it in Chicago. As Berry put it, "Three straight games with at least nine targets, it doesn't matter who his QB is or even what the score is, as a 27.4-point game in that Packers beatdown from last Sunday night can attest." That said, his quarterback this week, Mitchell Trubisky, has thrown nine touchdowns in the three and a half starts he's had this year. Meanwhile, the Lions are giving up the fourth-most yards per game and the fifth-highest catch rate to wide receivers. They've also allowed the second-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers, including the most over the past eight weeks. Robinson, who lines up on the perimeter 70 percent of the time, benefits from that. So will you.

Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams ($5,900 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)

As Clay reminded readers, last season, the Rams absolutely demolished the Cardinals through the air. Woods put up receiving lines of 13-172-0 and 7-67-1 on a combined 28 targets in the two 2019 games. To be clear, Cooper Kupp was great in those game as well as the Rams put a combined 746 yards and five touchdowns on the board through the air in the two 2019 games. This year's version of Arizona's defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past eight weeks, as well as the sixth most to the perimeter during the span. So, in addition to counting on a Jared Goff rebound game (following some fairly harsh criticism from head coach Sean McVay, I'm counting on the Rams' mojo against the Cardinals to continue rising. And while I'd be fine playing Kupp ($6,100 on DraftKings; $6,600 on FanDuel), both wideouts are super-reasonably priced, I'll go with Woods as my top choice based on the 41 targets that have been funneled his way the past four games (including 27 over the last two games). ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld adds to that by pointing out Woods has an 81 percent catch rate this season on passes thrown under 10 yards and the Cardinals allow 162.3 passing yards on balls thrown less than 10 yards per game (second-most in the NFL). Sign me up.

I'm Out

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($7,800 on DraftKings; $8,000 on FanDuel)

Hopkins is coming into the Rams game on a relatively quiet streak. He's made five catches in each of the last two games for 51 and 55 yards against Seattle and New England, respectively. Is that enough for the Rams to choose not to shadow him with Jalen Ramsey? Ramsey has only shadowed twice this season, but considering those came during two of the Rams' past three games and against star perimeter wideouts DK Metcalf and Mike Evans, Clay believes he's a strong candidate to travel with Hopkins in Week 13. If so, the duo will reignite a matchup that began in the AFC South with Ramsey's Jaguars facing Hopkins' Texans from 2016 through part of last season. Their battles were competitive and extensive. Pro Football Focus has recorded Hopkins gaining 396 receiving yards with Ramsey against him in coverage, the most against the cornerback since he entered the league in 2016. Clay has that number at 401 yards on 34 catches with just three touchdowns. Clay added, even if Ramsey doesn't shadow, this is a very tough matchup across the board for Arizona wide receivers. Los Angeles has three capable corners with Ramsey, the versatile Troy Hill and third-year pro Darious Williams, who leads the team with four interceptions and 13 passes defensed through 11 games. The trio is a big reason the Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the second fewest to the perimeter both this entire season and over the past eight weeks. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is still dealing with a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder. And, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes, the Rams have been a nightmare for quarterbacks, especially recently, as they limited Russell Wilson (Week 10) to 10 and Tom Brady (Week 11) to 12 fantasy points.