DFS Three And Out 2019 week 13
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
The pump has been primed, it's time to tap it. ... In the three game since he returned from the Week 4 toe injury that sidelined him for a full month, Adams has hit double-digit targets in each (11, 10, 12). If you go back to that Week 4 game against the Eagles in which he was injured, Adams, who was targeted 15 times that night, has averaged 12 targets per game. This week, as FantasyPros' Zach Brunner pointed out, Adams has the top individual matchup advantage of the week for wideout, having a whopping 40 percent advantage over Janoris Jenkins, per Pro Football Focus. While that's fantastic, it gets better. ESPN's Mike Clay, while confirming a heavy dose of Jenkins, notes that Adams will run roughly 60 percent of his routes against struggling youngsters DeAndre Baker and Corey Ballentine. The Giants as a whole have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to wideouts this season. So what happens when you combine high-volume with a great matchup? According to FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere, there have been just three receivers who've totaled double-digit targets against New York this year. Those receivers were Mike Evans, Allen Robinson and Julian Edelman. Each of them totaled at least 20 PPR points. It hasn't even required double-digit targets, as there've been seven different receivers who've totaled at least 100 yards against them, and another five who've totaled at least 80 yards. Also, it seems likely Aaron Rodgers will be dead set on exorcise his demons following a miserable showing in San Francisco last weekend with a good old-fashioned shellacking of the Giants. Adams ($8,000 on FanDuel; $7,000 on DraftKings) will be a big part of that.
D.J. Chark, WR, Jacksonville
The Buccaneers are familiar with Jacksonville QB Nick Foles, having faced him three times in the past with two different teams and watched him throw for 1,011 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in those three contests. Chark, meanwhile, has emerged as the top threat in Jacksonville's aerial assault and he ranks 12th in the NFL with a team-high 833 receiving yards. The only NFL player with more than Chark's eight touchdown receptions through 12 weeks is Tampa Bay's Chris Godwin, who has nine. In addition, Chark leads all Jaguars receivers in targets with 91. And though the Tampa Bay pass defense was better than usual last Sunday, Clay reminded his readers this week that each of the Falcons' top three wide receivers came away with double-digit fantasy points in that one. In fact, as NFL.com's Michael Fabiano notes, the Bucs have allowed 12 touchdowns and the third-most fantasy points to receivers lined out wide, which is where Chark averages 27.5 routes per game. In all, the Bucs have allowed nine top-10 fantasy wide receivers since Week 3. ESPN's Matthew Berry added to the intrigue by pointing out that 71.7 percent of the Jags' red-zone yards have come through the air (the second-most in the NFL). I'm buying all of it -- and I'm paying a fair price ($6,900 on FanDuel; $6,600 on DraftKings).
Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts
Sometimes opportunity knocks. And that's worth noting. In this case, with Eric Ebron done for the year, Marlon Mack out indefinitely due to a hand injury, T.Y. Hilton suffering a setback in practice Wednesday that will sideline him for Sunday's game against the Titans and Devin Funchess not ready to return from IR, the Colts will need others to pick up the pace. So even if he's not the speedy, field-stretching element the team truly needs with Hilton out (and it's possible rookie Parris Campbell could return to assist in that regard), Doyle could be in position to give the Colts and DFS players a boost. As NFL.com's Graham Barfield notes, Ebron and Doyle have been splitting targets all season long, but now Doyle should dominate most of the production in the Colts tight end friendly attack. This year, the Colts tight end group has scored the sixth-most fantasy points in the league while only the Ravens, Eagles and Raiders have targeted their tight ends more often than the Colts. Conversely, Tagliere notes the Titans have allowed eight different tight ends to finish as top-15 options against them this year, though touchdowns are a bit part of that, as five of them required touchdowns to get there. That said, ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld reminds us the Titans are allowing the seventh-highest red zone completion rate this season, which bodes well for Doyle ($5,000 on FanDuel; $3,300 on DraftKings) as much as the Colts target their tight ends in the red zone.
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
I get it. Allow me to acknowledge the obvious upside Brown has serving as Lamar Jackson's top downfield weapon. He's capable of scoring on any play. Look back no further than Monday night's win in Los Angeles, when -- despite failing to clear 50 receiving yards for the sixth time in seven games, the speedy rookie found the end zone on two of his five receptions. Brown has now found the end zone six times in nine games. Still, as Clay points out, he's been very boom/bust with a pair of two-score games and four outings with fewer than eight fantasy points. Clay went on to remind readers that Brown is averaging just 4.25 targets per game since returning from injury in Week 9. Allow me to further acknowledge, that Brown is an ideal touchdown-dependent DFS Tournament play. The price is fine and his QB couldn't be any better. But this week? Sunday brings a new test. The 49ers boast the NFL's top-ranked defense. Thanks to that menacing pass rush and a strong secondary featuring cornerback Richard Sherman, the 49ers are second in pass defense DVOA and they've allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Per Tagliere, "the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest explosive plays. Their zone defense has kept the play in front of them, as they've allowed just 18 pass plays that have gone over 20 yards, which is the lowest mark in the league." All in all, there are plenty of higher-volume receivers in this price range ($5,600 on FanDuel; $5,300 on DraftKings) who have better matchups.