DFS Three And Out 2020 week 6

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.




I'm In





Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions ($6,300 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)

I'm not going to lie. I had no idea that over the course of his 12 seasons with the Lions, Stafford has never thrown a touchdown versus the Jaguars. He's only played them twice, but considering the veteran has accumulated 42,042 passing yards and 264 passing touchdowns (including at least two touchdowns passes against all 30 other teams), it's a little surprising. Not just to me. But to Stafford, who found out about this fact during his Wednesday press conference when a reporter brought it to his attention. Stafford admitted it brings a little extra motivation to Sunday's game. "Yeah, that needs to happen for sure," Stafford said with a smile. I'm going to suggest it will. ... As FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere notes, after getting off to a slow start, Stafford has posted 21 and 23 fantasy points in his last two games. The return of Kenny Golladay is likely a factor in that. As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, in his past 10 games with Golladay active, Stafford is averaging 20.7 fantasy points. But this is more about Jacksonville's defense than it is Stafford. Per Tagliere, the Jaguars have allowed a league-leading 8.83 yards per attempt to quarterbacks. They've only generated a sack on 3.0 percent of dropbacks, which ranks as the second-lowest number in the league while allowing a massive 75.8 percent completion rate and 6.83 percent touchdown-rate -- a number that explains why they've given up multiple-TD passes in each of their last three games. Adding to the fun, Tagliere points to the Lions team-implied total is 28.8 points, a number that's especially appealing when you realize they've scored just three rushing touchdowns through four games. Looking to stack (and you should be)? Berry notes that Jacksonville last week allowed Texans receivers to catch seven of 11 deep targets for 199 yards and two touchdowns. This is not a new development. The Jaguars have allowed 18 deep receptions this year, sixth worst in the NFL. Golladay ($6,200 on DraftKings; $7,200 on FanDuel) has a touchdown in both games he has played since returning from injury, Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,100 on DraftKings; $5,800 on FanDuel), who has a pair of career four-TD outings (Sunday's game will be two days shy of a year from his last one), is way overdue for a big game and D'Andre Swift ($4,500 on DraftKings; $5,400 on FanDuel) is the preferred receiving option out of the backfield. T.J. Hockenson will have his best matchup of the year, something reflected in his price ($5,300 on DraftKings; $5,700 on FanDuel). Remember, Jacksonville was generous to pretty much every position against the Texans last week. By all means, pile on here people.



Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts ($6,400 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)

Matchups and roles mater. ... Since Marlon Mack's season-ending injury in Week 1, Taylor has been the unquestioned starter -- even as he cedes touches to Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. While his production may not match the expectations fantasy managers had going into the season (and by "fantasy managers" I totally mean "me"), Taylor is still the Colts' clear No. 1 back, especially in the red zone. As Berry notes, since Week 2, he ranks fifth among all backs in red-zone rushes, and he has a rushing touchdown in three of his past four games. As a result, the rookie currently sits as the RB13 on the season, which is not terrible. He's averaging just 4.0 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in football and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni believes Taylor is coming off his best game of the season in Week 5. This week, he goes up against a Bengals defense that has surrendered 159.0 yards per game on the ground (30th in the NFL). Adding to that, the Bengals are an injury-riddled disaster along the defensive front. Earlier this week, they put D.J. Reader, the highest-paid nose tackle in football, on injured reserve, where he'll join fellow defensive tackles Mike Daniels and Renell Wren. Another of their DTs, Josh Tupou, opted out before the season, and defensive end Sam Hubbard was placed on injured reserve Thursday with an elbow injury. Also, with the passing game struggling as it is, it's worth noting Cincy's pass defense has been among the league's best, allowing the fourth-lowest passer rating (81.7) in the league. So run Jonathan, run. And aim for the end zone if you would young man.




Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins ($5,400 on DraftKings; $5,700 on FanDuel)

Matchups and roles matter. Price matters, too. ... As much as I like Taylor, Gaskins gives you a lot of the same thing at a much cheaper price. As Berry pointed out, the Jets have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, which sets up well for Gaskin to produce: He has averaged 20.3 touches per game over the past three weeks and has seen at least four targets in every game this season. Berry added the biggest concern for Gaskin was that Jordan Howard would vulture him at the goal line, but with 19 red-zone rushes and six goal-to-go carries over the past three games -- and with Howard a healthy scratch last Sunday, we can relax there.





I'm Out





Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($7,500 on DraftKings; $8,400 on FanDuel)

If I'm being honest, I feel like this is a bit of a reach as I try not to go total chalk on both the "Ins" and the "Out. ..." That said, this isn't the best matchup for Rodgers. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft noted this week, Buccaneers' defense has been one of the best-performing units this season far, thanks in part to a pass rush that has pressured the quarterback on 34.7 percent of dropbacks (second most in the league), sacked him on 8.4 percent (fourth most) and granted him the second-lowest amount of time in the pocket. Cockroft went on to note that's a problem for Rodgers, who, when pressured, has the league's fourth-worst qualified completion percentage (36.6 percent) and seventh-worst sack rate on dropbacks (32.2 percent) in 2019-20 combined. So far this season, Tampa has held 4-of-5 quarterbacks outside the top-20 at their position for the week, with Tagliere noting the lone exception being Justin Herbert who continually beat them over the top while throwing for 290 yards on just 25 attempts. Given that, Tagliere points out that Rodgers has thrown the ball deep on a league-high 21.6 percent of his pass attempts and he believes the loss of DT Vita Vea will impact their pass rush even though he's an interior player. Also working in Rodgers' favor is the return of Davante Adams. But Adams will be going up against Bucs' corner Carlton Davis, who has run hot and cold at times this year. As ESPN's Mike Clay noted, Davis has shadowed Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson this season. Thomas was shut down (3-17-0 receiving line on five targets), whereas Allen (8-62-0 on 12) and Robinson (10-90-0 on 16) showed well thanks to a ton of volume, something Adams will enjoy, too. Still I'm going to plant my flag here using the price and the wide range of cheaper QBs with much better matchups as the reason why.