DFS Three And Out 2020 week 10

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

Nothing but expensive options in this special "Pay-That-Man" edition of the Three and Out.



I'm In




Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals ($8,000 on DraftKings; $8,800 on FanDuel)

Murray is expensive. With good reason. In Kliff Kingsbury's offense, Murray is playing in a system perfect for his skills. And it's allowing him to do things that no quarterback has done before -- from both the NFL and fantasy football perspectives. First of all, the second-year signal caller is putting up numbers like no one before him in NFL history. Halfway through the 2020 season, Murray has 2,130 passing yards and 543 rushing yards (putting him on pace to pass for 4,260 yards and run for 1,086 yards this season; that would be the first 4,000-yard passing, 1,000-yard rushing season in NFL history). In Week 9, the No. 1 overall pick from 2019 was the top-scoring fantasy quarterback for the first time in his career. That brings him to eight top-10 fantasy weeks in as many tries this season and his average of 26.3 fantasy points per game is best among quarterbacks. From an NFL perspective, Murray had his first career double-triple against the Dolphins. As Profootballtalk.com laid it out, a double-triple is when a player reaches triple digits in two different yardage categories, such as more than 100 yards rushing and more than 100 yards passing. Murray had a career-high 106 rushing yards to go with 283 passing yards. He also threw three touchdowns and ran in another. That's the kind of explosive upside (in a fairly tough matchup against the Dolphins) that makes him appealing. Beyond the high ceiling, it's a great floor. According to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft, Murray's 265 fantasy points through the Cardinals' first eight games of the season are the most by any QB at a season's midway point in history. Beyond that, FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere points out that Murray's rushing totals (including eight touchdown runs) would rank as the No. 18 running back (remember: running backs have all their receiving production included in that). So have we established Murray is really good, has a great floor and a super-high ceiling? Fine. Let's touch base on the matchup. Per Tagliere, Buffalo has already allowed seven different quarterbacks to post top-12 numbers against them (with every opposing QB not named Sam Darnold finishing as a QB1). Six of those QBs have thrown at least two touchdowns, while four of them scored a rushing touchdown. The Bills defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. So yeah, the ownership is going to be high even at this price. But again, not without good reason.



Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers ($9,000 on DraftKings; $9,500 on FanDuel)

In case you haven't been following along at home, Adams has 53 catches for 675 yards in just six games. He's the first NFL player to have at least 50 catches, 600 yards receiving and eight touchdown receptions over his first six games of his season. So, yes. Adams is really good. Also, the guy throwing it is really good. With Aaron Rodgers dialed in on him (thanks in part to the absence of other weapons), Adams has destroyed the team's last three opponents, racking up 30 receptions, 422 yards and six touchdowns. As Tagliere notes, this week's opponent, Jacksonville has allowed the third-most points per target to wide receivers through nine weeks. Tagliere went on to note there have been just two wide receivers who've seen 10-plus targets against them this year, which netted 8/161/1 for Brandin Cooks and 10/125/0 for Keenan Allen. All in all, there have been seven wide receivers who've totaled at least 83 yards against the Jaguars, and that's despite just two quarterbacks throwing more than 36 pass attempts. Digging deeper, ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld notes the combination of Allen, Tyler Boyd, Kenny Golladay and DeVante Parker have caught 81.3 percent of their targets against Jacksonville. The Jaguars have also allowed a touchdown on 6.3 percent of all passes, the sixth-highest rate in the league. And if you're worried about this one getting out of hand early, thus limiting Adams' potential, I point to last Thursday in San Francisco. By the way, if you're looking to leverage this even further or want a piece of the Packers not named Adams, Aaron Jones (X on DraftKings; X on FanDuel) would be just fine with me. With an extended break between last Thursday's return (in which he shouldered a heavier-than-expected load) and Sunday's game against Jacksonville, Jones should be ready for another big day against a porous Jaguars defense. According to Zeidenfeld, Jacksonville is allowing opponents to complete 85 percent of RB targets (second-highest) and Jones has seen five-plus targets in three straight games, with four-plus targets in every game this season.




Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders ($5,900 on DraftKings; $7,000 on FanDuel)

I'm all about opportunity. So is Waller. If you check out our Targets Page, you'll find some interesting information about this man. For example, on the season, he's drawn 29.5 percent of his team's targets. That ranks fifth in the NFL behind only Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and DeAndre Hopkins. We call this good company. We also call it an insane workload for a tight end. Over the last three weeks, Waller has benefited from a 32.5 percent target share (sixth in the league over that span). That's important because, as Tagliere points out, tight ends have hauled in 80 percent of their passes against the Broncos, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Again, Waller has at least six targets in 7-of-8 games this season, including eight-plus targets in five of them. In addition, Waller has had a red-zone target in every game this season, with an end-zone target in three of his last four outings.




I'm Out





DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($7,700 on DraftKings; $8,600 on FanDuel)

Look, I realize a lousy game for Hopkins could hurt my QB pick -- although not necessarily. Hopkins was just shut down by Xavien Howard in Miami and Murray still had a four-TD day, so there's that. This week, Hopkins goes up against Tre'Davious White. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, these two will be facing off for the third consecutive season, and their most recent meeting saw White shadow Hopkins (then with Houston) on 16 of his 33 routes (14 of 16 perimeter) in Week 17 of the 2019 season. Per Clay, Hopkins had a solid 6-90-0 receiving line on eight targets in the game and most of that came against White. In 2018, White shadowed Hopkins on 25 of his 33 routes (24 of 25 perimeter). Hopkins put up a 5-63-1 line on six targets (2-27-1 vs. White). But Clay went on to note that White has been terrific this season, having been targeted on an extremely low 12 percent of his coverage snaps and Buffalo has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The bigger issue? Buffalo corners not named White have struggled, so Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk get a boost in this matchup and while nobody is sitting Hopkins in season-long (regardless of matchup), it's a bit cost prohibitive here (especially when I can -- and will -- stack Murray with cheaper options).