DFS GPP STACKS WEEK 9 2021

Hopefully you had lots of Jonathan Taylor in your Thursday night DFS showdowns, as he turned in a game for the ages. I went heavy, but he was almost always paired with Mike White so it wound up being pretty irrelevant. Let’s turn our attention to the top GPP stackable games of the week 9 slate, and don’t forget to listen to us every Sunday at 10 AM EST as we break down every game live from a DFS perspective at www.youtube.com/footballdiehards.

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

PACKERS

The underlying betting numbers have dropped dramatically in this game. It started out as KC -1 with an O/U of 54 and the game total has now dropped to 48 with KC being favored by 7 (Rodgers is out). There is still stack appeal in this game, just less so on the GB side with Jordan Love starting. Love is making his debut, so we have no idea what to expect, but it certainly helps that he is getting his entire arsenal back from the COVID list (namely Davante Adams). I expect the Packers will try to feature Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in order to minimize the responsibility Love has, but I have to figure they won’t have a choice in the second half. As I pointed out in my cash article, Love at $4400 is a unique value that allows a ton of flexibility at the high end. I expect Love will lean on Adams and Jones heavily, and would likely leave the rest of the roster to fight for the “less-efficient scraps”. KC has allowed the most FPPG to opposing QBs and the eighth most FPPG to opposing WRs.

CHIEFS

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have full stack appeal against a Packers defense still missing Jaire Alexander and potentially Zadarius Smith. The Chiefs need to keep winning to get back in the AFC West race, and Mahomes and Tyreek Hill should erupt together as Hill is fresh off a 15-target game against the Giants where he wreaked havoc with his speed even though the Giants prevented the deep ball. Without Jaire, there’s no one capable of covering Tyreek. Travis Kelce, on the other hand, seems to be showing his age a bit lately, and he’s only scored once since he scored three TDs over the first two weeks. He’s still obviously the second option in Chiefs stacks, but it’s a bit tough to make things work with both of them and Davante or Jones (the obvious bringbacks).

The other Chiefs receivers stink, plain and simple, but you can still run Mecole Hardman out there in stacks. He had 7 targets despite being fourth in snaps of the pass-catching corps. I should also point out that Josh Gordon went from an 11% snap share in week 7 to a 40% share in week 8.

Darrel Williams can absolutely be used in stacks as well. Even with Derrick Gore busting out a bit, Williams still had a 64% snap share and 19 touches, and the Packers have allowed the sixth most receptions to opposing RBs.

STACK IDEAS
Mahomes/Hill/Kelce w/ Adams or Jones
Mahomes/Hill/Hardman w/ Jones
Mahomes/Hill/Williams w/ Adams

Love/Adams/Jones w/ Hill

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

CHARGERS

This game has some dynamic playmakers and a game total over 50 points, so there’s definite stack appeal on both sides. Justin Herbert has had two straight down games but his price tag is reflecting that at $7000. The Eagles have been stout against perimeter WRs (third fewest FPPG allowed) thanks to Darius Slay and company, so Mike Williams worries me a bit. His big play ability is still there in stacks, but I prefer Keenan Allen’s PPR floor out of the slot where the Eagles have been more vulnerable. Jared Cook is a fading TE thanks to age, but he’s super cheap ($3300) and has a nice matchup against the Eagles who have given up the fifth most FPPG to the position.

It goes without saying the Austin Ekeler is a top play on this slate, if not THE top overall play. Whatever injury issues were surrounding him last week were debunked quickly, as Ekeler ran a 75% snap share and logged 17 touches. The Eagles have allowed the sixth most FPPG to RBs and the seventh most receptions out of the backfield, so fire up Ekeler aggressively in Chargers stacks (really a top play in any format).

EAGLES

The Eagles’ side is a bit more complicated in terms of stack builds, as they committed to the run last week and put up 44 points as a result. The running backs actually have an even better matchup this week against the Chargers, as L.A. has allowed the third most FPPG to opposing RBs and also 5.1 YPC. Jordan Howard is too one-dimensional to trust in tournaments, but Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell both work as either a bringback or part of Hurts stacks.

Hurts is still the QB4 in fantasy thanks to his rushing ability, so that’s always going to be a part of tournament upside potential. The Chargers have been nails against opposing WRs, though, allowing the second fewest FPPG to the position, so even Devonta Smith and his 27% target comes with a worry for me in this one. The other WRs are non-factors, so I’m even less interested in them. Dallas Goedert, on the other hand, could absolutely go off in this game. As good as the Chargers have been against WRs, they’ve been equally bad against TEs, allowing the second most FPPG and the second most YPT. I love Goedert in all formats.


STACK IDEAS
Herbert/Allen/Ekeler w/ Goedert
Herbert/Allen/Williams w/ Scott
Herbert/Allen/Cook w/ Scott or Gainwell

Hurts/Goedert/Smith w/ Ekeler
Hurts/Goedert w/ Ekeler/Allen
Hurts/Goedert/Gainwell w/ Allen

DENVER BRONCOS AT DALLAS COWBOYS

BRONCOS

I spoke extensively about the Dallas side of things in my cash article, and I’m going to hammer it in GPP as well (more on that below). First we deal with the Broncos, who have appeal of their own even with a team total around 20. The Cowboys have allowed the third most FPPG to opposing QBs and the seventh most FPPG to WRs, and Jerry Jeudy back in the mix really opens them back up. If Jeudy’s snap share increases (it should), he has the better matchup than Sutton (who is likely to draw the Trevon Diggs coverage). Sutton is still second in the league in air yards %, so don’t fade him in stacks. Noah Fant is still in the COVID protocol, so Albert O at $2600 is the punt of the slate. He’s likely to be heavily owned, but take the free square in GPPs as well.

Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are still in a 50/50 time share and Dallas allows the eighth fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, so I’m really only interested in the passing game.

COWBOYS

Now, to Dallas. If you read my cash article, you know that I’ve pointed out that DraftKings has mispriced several of them. At the top, Ezekiel Elliott at 7k is a joke for someone who has averaged 22 touches per game over the last five. Denver is missing at least four key defenders to injury and traded away Von Miller, so it’s possible that Dallas’ 30-point total is actually too low. If you want to get REALLY contrarian to Zeke’s ownership, Pollard has stack appeal in this game as well. Even with a 25% snap share, he’s still getting double-digit touches every game.

For the passing game, it would be ideal if Dak Prescott returned to unlock the full upside, but Cooper Rush would still be adequate. CeeDee Lamb is the one Cowboy who is fully priced, but is still a top option as Denver’s slot coverage could be the worst in the NFL with Bryce Callahan injured. Michael Gallup is expected back, which will open up the offense even more. Amari Cooper is blatantly mispriced at $5700 and you want to eat even his high ownership. He went 8-112-1 on 13 targets last week and Denver does not have any CBs the are going to stop him with their injuries on the defensive side. Dalton Schultz has the worst matchup of the bunch with Denver giving up the seventh fewest FPPG to opposing TEs, but Blake Jarwin looks set to miss this game. A full complement of snaps for Schultz could be a slate-winning score.


STACK IDEAS
Bridgewater/Jeudy/Sutton w/ Zeke
Bridgewater/Jeudy/Sutton w/ Amari or Lamb
Bridgewater/Jeudy/Albert O w/ Zeke

Dak/Amari/Lamb/ w/ Jeudy or Sutton
Dak/Amari/Schultz w/ Jeudy or Sutton
Dak/Amari/Lamb/Schultz w/ no DEN (onslaught)