By Jamie Calandro
Jamie Calandro




This is the premier game on the slate, featuring the (arguably, I guess?) top two teams in the AFC going head to head. We have a close spread and high O/U, so you’re going to need pieces of this game in cash, and full stacks are going to be fun in GPP

It starts with Josh Allen. He’s in a tier of his own and is the chalkiest QB on the slate (rightfully so). Allen’s volume both on the ground and through the air has an immense floor/ceiling combo. Throw in the Chiefs giving up the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs and Allen could push 40 FPS again. As the highest owned QB, you’re going to have to find ways to differentiate in GPP if stacking Bills. That said, don’t shy away from the Allen-Diggs stack, as Diggs is already at 39-508-5 on 52 targets, and is sixth in the NFL in air yards and second in RZ targets.

The rest of the Bills’ WR corps is tough. Gabe Davis is the clear second choice in the passing game but it bears mentioning that he has no floor, not having topped six targets in any game this year and totaling nine fantasy points combined in the two games prior to going off against PIT last game. Isaiah McKenzie is back, but Khalil Shakir is not going away. Either can be used in stacks, but would not use both. Dawson Knox is also off the injury report but is strictly a TD-or-bust play.

Devin Singletary is actually my favorite skill play after Diggs to stack with Allen. His snap share raises significantly in close games for the Bills, and he’s actually second on the team in targets after Diggs, with 23.

Theoretically, the Chiefs offense has a much worse matchup on the other side, but they should not be ignored given the high O/U and the incredible talent of their QB. Patrick Mahomes is averaging 25.6 DK PPG (third in the league) and has not missed a beat at all without Tyreek Hill. The Bills have allowed the third fewest FPPG to QBs, but Mahomes will get there on volume and skill alone.

Like Diggs on the Bills side, Kelce is the top pairing with Mahomes for KC, despite the Bills’ allowing the sixth fewest FPPG to opposing TEs. He leads the position in receptions and TDs and is second in receiving yards to Mark Andrews. He’s matchup-proof and directly tied to Mahomes’ volume. Juju Smith-Schuster has struggled this year but he has eight targets in four of five games and should so better with Buffalo’s zone coverage. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, on the other hand, should have huge issues given his high aDOT, so I’m limiting my exposure to him. Skyy Moore’s snap share is rising at the expense of Mecole Hardman, and is worth a dart throw.

KC’s RB corps is strictly game-script driven, so you’re taking a gamble regardless. Both McKinnon and CEH are viable with the high O/U, and I’m not interesting in Isaiah Pacheco (3% snap share in a blowout win last week)

Allen/Diggs/Davis w/ Kelce
Allen/Diggs/McKenzie or Shakir w/ Kelce
Allen/Diggs/Singletary with Kelce or Juju

Mahomes/Kelce/Juju w/ Diggs
Mahomes/Kelce/Juju w/ Singletary
Mahomes/Kelce/CEH or McKinnon w/ Diggs





In this undercard to the top game, we have a much easier stack game with injuries that have occurred to both teams. Starting with the passing game here, Kyler could go ballistic as SEA has allowed the highest passer rating, the seventh most FPPG to QBs, and 31 points per game. Marquise Brown is fourth in the league in air yards and has 55 targets through five weeks. We have one more week of him before DeAndre Hopkins adds some uncertainty. Rondale Moore is a premier value at $4200 as he’s taken over the slot role completely with a 90% snap share over the past two weeks. The Seahawks have allowed by far the most FPPG to opposing TEs (granted, Taysom‘s miracle game last week is driving that a lot), and Ertz has 41 targets through five weeks. Hopkins is out for one more week, so Ertz will be overpriced starting a week from now. Take advantage.

Eno Benjamin has the backfield all to himself this week and is $4600. He’s averaging 4.5 YPC and the Seahawks have allowed the third most FPPG to opposing RBs

Geno Smith has been…well…unexpected this year, and I’m forced to accept that it’s real given the production of both his WRs. Tyler Lockett got a scare this week but is fully cleared to go, making him the top value on the slate at WR. At 40 targets through the first five weeks, Lockett brings an incredibly strong floor on DK, and his speed to beat opposing secondaries raises his ceiling significantly as well (as we saw him post 20.8 YPC and two TDs against New Orleans). DK Metcalf actually has the softer matchup of the two and will garner somewhat less ownership than Lockett, and he actually has two MORE targets than his counterpart. Double-stacking these guys with Geno is a fantastic play as the TEs aren’t a factor and there isn’t a viable WR3 on Seattle either.

Finally we have Kenneth Walker, who takes over as lead back this week. He was a revelation at the combine and came on in relief of Rashaad Penny to go 8-88-1 against New Orleans last week. The Cardinals have allowed 4.5 YPC and five rushing TDs so far, along with the seventh most receptions to the position.

Murray/Brown/Ertz w/ Lockett or DK
Murray/Brown/Moore w/ Lockett or DK
Murray/Brown/Moore or Ertz w/ Walker

Geno/Lockett/DK w/ Moore, Brown, or Ertz
Geno/Lockett/DK w/ Benjamin