DFS Three And Out 2020 week 15
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams ($6,300 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel)
This just in: The Jets are bad. And according to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft, I might be understating it. "The Jets have completely collapsed against the pass of late, as in their four games since they bye," Cockroft wrote, "they've allowed a league-high 25.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, not to mention multiple passing touchdowns to each individual starter during that time span." FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere is all in, too. "What happens when you combine one of the least efficient defenses in the league with opponents who run a lot of plays?" Tagliere asked before answering his own question: "You get the most fantasy points per game allowed in football. The Jets have allowed a massive 1.54 PPR points per offensive snap to their opponents, while also allowing them to run 68.2 plays per game." I know, Goff wasn't impressive against the Patriots last week. In fact, he's failed to throw more than one touchdown in five of his last six games. Aside from the obvious (the Jets), why should we expect a rebound? Tagliere offers up this theory: "Don't you think Sean McVay would like to instill some confidence in Goff prior to the playoffs? What better way to do that than against the Jets?" A reasonable enough narrative. But not nearly as important as the obvious (the Jets). As Zeidenfeld put it, "The Jets have elevated many quarterback stacks to tournament contenders this season as they've allowed the fourth-most points per drive in the league and 30-plus points in five of their past six games." At least part of that production is due to the Jets being tied for allowing a league-high 28 touchdown passes this season. Zeidenfeld added the Rams have a very condensed target tree, making them very easy to stack, which is the best way to get the most bang for your buck in the case Goff throws for three or four touchdowns. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and perhaps even Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson and tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett should routinely find openings in the secondary. Mix and match! With 11 QBs costing you more on DraftKings and 9 more expensive on FanDuel, you should have ample room to play with the rest of your lineup.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($5,500 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel)
In nine games played through Week 11, Hilton averaged a meager 36.3 yards per game on 3.2 catches per outing. Then Week 12 hit and the Hilton-Philip Rivers connection became a thing. In the last three games, Hilton averaged 92.3 yards on 5.7 catches per game with four total TDs (most in the NFL since Week 12). As NFL.com notes, Rivers has a 153.4 passer rating when targeting Hilton since Week 12 (best in NFL, minimum 10 targets). Should we believe Hilton is really back? "Buy, buy, buy and buy some more of the hype surrounding Hilton's late-season surge," said ESPN.com's Colts beat writer Mike Wells. Adding to the appeal, the veteran wideout gets another prime spot to dominate this week against a Texans squad he's tortured throughout his career. Hilton's receptions (93), receiving yards (1,647) and receiving TDs (11) versus the Texans rank in the top three among players against any single opponent since 2012, per NFL Research. His 17.7 career yards per reception is the most versus a single opponent in the Super Bowl era (minimum 90 catches). In fact, as recently as Week 13, Hilton blasted the Texans, who have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, for eight catches, 110 yards and a TD. Can he do it again? Considering the reasonable price tag, I'm willing to take my chances.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($6,300 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel)
Aiyuk has been on a roll. A serious roll. As in 36 catches for 495 yards and three TDs in his past five games played. He has at least 100 yards or a touchdown over his last six games. According to ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld, that matches the longest streak of that sort this season, previously done by DK Metcalf. It also includes a 10-catch, 119-yard performance on 16 targets last week after Deebo Samuel got hurt on the first play against the WFT. Samuel will miss the rest of the season and it appears George Kittle is still a week away from returning. That leaves out guy Aiyuk as the tip of the receiving spear. Also, Aiyuk faces a very generous Dallas -- a unit that allows a touchdown on a league-high 17.9 percent of deep passes (according to Zeidenfeld, the league average is only 7.9 percent) -- this weekend. According to ESPN's Matthew Berry, receivers who have seen six-plus targets against Dallas average 19.5 fantasy points per game. Zeidenfeld chimed in by noting of the 26 times a pass-catcher (receiver or tight end) has seen six or more targets against the Cowboys this season, those players have caught 21 touchdown passes. Considering Aiyuk has nine-plus targets in each of his past four games, this seems like mortal lock for production. And like Hilton, it seems the price hasn't quite caught up to the production.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,700 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
Lockett needs two catches to set a career-high with 83 in a season, and 114 yards for his second-straight 1,000-yard season. He might get those two catches, but I'll take the under on the yardage. As in WAY under. ... As New York Post staffer Samantha Previte reminded readers, Lockett caught five of five passes for 52 yards against the hapless Jets last week, who rank 31st in passing yards allowed. This weekend, he faces a much more formidable adversary in Week 15 in Washington, whose secondary has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers this year. Per Tagliere, the best performances by slot-heavy receivers against them this year have been Tyler Boyd 9/85/0, Larry Fitzgerald 7/50/0 and Cooper Kupp 5/66/0. I know. ... Lockett is not without upside. We saw it in Week 7 when he hauled in 15 passes (on 20 targets) for 200 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals. But we haven't seen it since. In fact, as Berry pointed out, since that big game against Arizona, Lockett is WR46 on a per-game basis. Please note the price and do a little comparison shopping, let's say with Aiyuk or Hilton.