DFS Three And Out 2019 week 14
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Seems like a great week for a "Reasonably-Priced QuarterbackPalooza" edition of the Three and Out!
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins
As the Dolphins official website noted, over the past seven-plus games, since the fourth quarter of the Washington game, Fitzpatrick is completing 64.7 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His passer rating in that span is 89.3, though it would be better if not for two interceptions off perfectly thrown passes that bounced off the intended receiver, another where his arm was hit as he threw and a fourth where DeVante Parker collided with an Eagles linebacker and prevented him from getting to his spot on a crossing route. Fitzpatrick's three rushing touchdowns also have come during that span. It's safe to say that Fitzpatrick has been a big reason the Dolphins' red-zone offense has been the best in the NFL since that Washington game in Week 6. As a result of his solid efforts, FitzMagic ($7,400 on FanDuel; $6,000 on DraftKings) has at least 20 fantasy points in four of his past seven games and the Dolphins are a high-volume passing team. For the record, I also like Sam Darnold ($7,700 on FanDuel; $6,000 on DraftKings) in a bounceback game against a Dolphins defense has allowed QBs to complete 29 touchdowns this season (second-most in the NFL).
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
Since Tannehill took over as the Titans' starter, the team is 5-1 and has averaged 29.7 points per game. The Titans are averaging 13.4 more points per game under Tannehill than they did with Marcus Mariota as the starter. With his stellar performance in a comeback win over division rival Colts last week, Tannehill moved ahead of Kirk Cousins for highest passer rating in the NFL this season at 113.9. In just six starts, Tannehill has four games with a 120-plus passer rating this season -- only Cousins and Russell Wilson have more such games (5) in 2019. Aided by Derrick Henry and a potent rushing attack, Tannehill has delivered multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games and ranks second in the league in adjusted yards per attempt. To provide some additional context as to how proficient Tannehill has been since taking over as the starter, ESPN.com's Jim McCormick notes that only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott have averaged more fantasy points per game than the 21.1 Tannehill ($7,300 on FanDuel; $5,800 on DraftKings) has during the past seven weeks. Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the fourth-most points per drive to opponents this year.
Devlin Hodges, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra notes, Pittsburgh's offense has opened up since Duck took over under center. Splash plays we'd become accustomed to have returned, and the disastrous sacks and turnovers have mostly dissipated. In last week's win over Cleveland, Hodges destroyed the Browns with four deep shots that compiled 133 yards, a TD and an INT. For the season -- two starts and two relief appearances -- Hodges has gone 5-of-9 passing on deep passes, for 23.6 yards per attempt, 2-2 TD-INT ratio and a 100.5 passer rating. For comparison, Mason Rudolph and Ben Roethlisberger combined for 5-of-43 passing on deep shots, with 7.0 yards per attempt, 2-2 TD-INT ratio and a 52.4 passer rating. Sunday's tilt versus the Cardinals affords Hodges ($7,000 on FanDuel; $5,900 on DraftKings) another opportunity to build on his positive performances. The Cards have allowed a league-worst 113.5 opponent passer rating. Since Week 8, Arizona's defense ranks last in the NFL in points per game allowed (31.8), total yards per game (473.8), pass yards per game (369.4), completion percentage (72.9) and passer rating (111.0). In other words, it's Duck Season!
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Murray has been a reliable enough option at quarterback for the majority of the season but wasn't true last Sunday. The rookie had one of his worst outings of the season against the Rams, throwing for 163 yards and an interception, although he salvaged the day with a rushing touchdown. Bigger, as ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, Murray has six games this season without a touchdown pass (including last week) and four games with fewer than 175 yards passing (including the past two weeks). Things won't get easier when the Steelers come to town this week. Since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh's defense has only allowed one QB to throw for 300 yards (Philip Rivers). The Steelers have allowed just 6.11 yards per attempt with 11 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions over that same 10-game span. As FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere notes, they've allowed just one quarterback to finish better than the QB16 during that time, too. In fact, they're the only team to hold Lamar Jackson to less than 21.3 fantasy points (he scored just 11.4 against them. On the whole, Pittsburgh's defense has held opposing QBs to only 13.55 points per game (sixth-fewest in the NFL). Yes, Murray ($7,500 on FanDuel; $5,800 on DraftKings) has fared well against a tough 49ers defense -- twice even. But banking on that with a ready supply of similarly-priced options boasting better matchups seems unwise.