DFS Three And Out 2018 Week 4

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
As the Associated Press notes, with an over under of 47 in Sunday’s game, the Chargers have an implied team total of more than 28 points in this home game against a 49ers team that has averaged 29 points against through three games (and just lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the season to an ACL tear). Rivers ($6,500 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel) will look to exploit the 49ers’ secondary, which has given up eight TDs through the air to date. While there is some risk that the Chargers pull ahead early in this game, leaving Melvin Gordon with a bigger workload, I'll suggest that Rivers is likely to be a major reason why if that's the case. As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out this week, since Week 8 of 2016, no quarterback in the NFL has more games with multiple touchdown passes than Rivers. Even if Keenan Allen (knee) is an issue, Rivers has ample weaponry at his disposal and the price ($6,500 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel) ain't bad.

Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
Also according to the AP, given a game total of 47 and a close spread, Las Vegas bookmakers expect this to be one of the more tightly contested games of the week, which could lead to big production from both teams. On the Texans side of the ball, both Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins are attractive prospects and together represent 59 percent of the targets this season from QB Deshaun Watson. As ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld pointed out, Fuller has played six games with Watson and has 26 catches for 493 and nine TDs in those games. Beyond that, the Colts are allowing opponents to complete a league-high 46.5 percent of passes thrown at least 25 yards (league average: 29.3 percent) and Fuller is averaging 18.7 air yards per target for his career on balls thrown by Watson. In fact, Berry pointed out that since the start of last season, no team has allowed more deep completions than the Colts. In addition, in his two games back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him Week 1, Fuller has nine and 11 targets. He's translated those looks into a pair 100-yard, one TD games. Fuller is also much more reasonably priced ($6,800 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel) than Hopkins ($8,400 on DraftKings; $8,600 on FanDuel).

Geronimo Allison, WR, Green Bay Packers
Don't look now, but Allison has topped 64 yards in all three games this season, finding the end zone in two of those outings. He seems to finally have a real role in Aaron Rodgers’ offense, which provides obvious value. There’s potential for Allison to see his value rise as Rodgers gains his health -- and the QB was on the practice field Thursday (albeit on a limited basis) this week, instead of Saturday as has been the case the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the consensus among observers has Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White (who ESPN's Mike Clay notes has been nothing short of elite, allowing only five catches on nine targets for 29 yards on 131 coverage snaps this season) to shadow Davante Adams. With White on Adams, Allison will see what Clay characterizes as "replacement level" Phillip Gaines or Ryan Lewis while Randall Cobb will face off with rookie Taron Johnson in the slot. Yes, Buffalo has allowed the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers, so Cobb ($5,100 on DraftKings; $6,100 on FanDuel) is viable here, but he's more expensive than Allison ($4,700 on DraftKings; $5,900 on FanDuel).

I'm Out

Odell Beckham, WR, New York Giants
I'm not saying the Saints have been great on defense. In fact, they've been awful against WRs this season, surrendering the most fantasy points per game to the position (and the highest total fantasy points to wide receivers. As the Sporting News pointed out, Beckham still doesn't have a TD in 2018 and he will certainly look to change that in a solid matchup. So it won't be surprising if Beckham draws high ownership. But as Clay pointed out, after a rough Weeks 1-2, New Orleans shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore finally seemed to get on the right track in Week 3, shadowing Julio Jones and allowing only three catches for 38 yards in the game. Clay added that Lattimore has shadowed in two of three games this season and during eight of his past nine outings. This week, that will mean a showdown with Beckham. Again, I'm not saying Lattimore is going to have another successful outing this week, but with Beckham sporting a high-end price ($8,700 on DraftKings; $8,600 on FanDuel), I'm thinking there's a pivot to be made here -- to Sterling Shepard ($4,900 on DraftKings; $6,200 on FanDuel). As Berry pointed out, after Evan Engram left the game last week, Shepard had four catches for 54 yards and a TD. He has received at least five targets in all three games this season. And did I mention the Saints defense hasn't been great? Per Clay, Shepard is expected to see P.J. Williams in the slot, who has been absolutely lit up on 25 coverage snaps this season.