DFS GPP STACKS WEEK 11 2021

It’s going to be tough to top the stack appeal that we saw in last night’s slugfest between Atlanta and New England, but we’ll try our best (insert sarcastic eye-roll). There are a few games on this 12-game docket with mega upside, so we’ll tackle all the best ways to maximize your GPP scores. Be sure to listen to us Sunday morning at 10 AM EST as we break down every game on www.youtube.com/footballdiehards!

DALLAS COWBOYS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (KC -2.5, O/U 55.5)

COWBOYS

This one gets the gold standard for stack appeal with a tight spread, two fast-paced offenses, and an O/U of 55.5. Tyron Smith is also set to return which will REALLY help Dak Prescott and company, as the Chiefs have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing QBs. The return of Michael Gallup should really open up the 3WR sets as well, and he in particular sets up as one of the better values after getting five targets in his return on a 62% snap share. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper should get a ton of work against this suspect Chiefs secondary, and Dalton Schultz is still running as the full TE1 with Blake Jarwin on IR. The Chiefs have given up the sixth most FPPG to opposing TEs.

As for Ezekiel Elliott, he’s set up to smash this Chiefs rush defense who has allowed 4.8 YPC, the sixth most RB targets, and the fifth most RB receiving yards. The tight spread should allow for a massive Zeke workload, but Tony Pollard can be mixed into MME builds as well with an average of 11.6 touches per week.

CHIEFS

As I said in my cash article, Patrick Mahomes is coming off a vintage 406-yard, 5-TD performance and the Chiefs come into this one with a team total of 29.5 as they start to show signs of “Chiefs squads of old”. Dallas is still missing their top two pass rushers in DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory and Dallas has allowed the 12th most FPPG to opposing QBs. Pairing Mahomes with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is the logical choice here, and it isn’t totally cost prohibitive as DraftKings did not have time to price them up (they played on Sunday night). Dallas has allowed the 12th most FPPG to WRs and the ninth most to TEs, suggesting both could smash in this one. If you’re looking to deviate off one of them in the passing game, it looks like Byron Pringle surpassed Mecole Hardman as the WR2 with a 61% snap share and five targets (and a TD). I wouldn’t trust him for cash just yet, but he’s a high upside punt at $3400.

For the running game, we need to see about the status of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If he’s back I’d avoid this completely, but if he misses again Darrel Williams is just too cheap at $5400. He showed his receiving prowess last week with a 9-101-1 line, and it would seem he’s best featured there again this week as the Cowboys allow the seventh fewest FPPG to RBs but also the fourth most receptions. If CEH returns, it’s a wait-and-see game.

STACK IDEAS
Prescott/Lamb/Cooper w/ Kelce
Prescott/Lamb/Gallup w/ Hill or Kelce
Prescott/Lamb/Schultz w/ Hill
Prescott/Lamb/Cooper w/ Williams (if no CEH)

Mahomes/Hill/Kelce w/ Zeke
Mahomes/Hill/Kelce w/ Lamb or Coooper
Mahomes/Hill/Pringle w/ Zeke

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (CIN -1, O/U 50.5)

BENGALS

If the popularity of DAL/KC remains, I’m going to go heavy on this game (or at least on the Bengals side of it). Cincinnati is once again leading the NFL in not only pace (they were last year with Burrow as well), but also in yards per attempt. I have Joe Burrow as a top-5 overall QB this week against this Raiders squad who was absolutely lit up by Mahomes and company last week, and have now allowed the 11th most FPPG to QBs. Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 19.8 DK PPG this year and is not remotely priced as such, so he’s an upside play in all formats. AS I pointed out in the cash article, though, I have googly eyes for Tee Higgins this week. His price NEVER moves, and he still has a higher target share on the year and only one less RZ target than Chase. Even Tyler Boyd works in this one, as the Raiders are fourth in the NFL in pressure rate which forces a lot of production into the slot.

Not to be forgotten, Joe Mixon should eat in this one as the Raiders have allowed the seventh most FPPG to RBs. Despite giving up the farm to Mahomes and the WRs, Las Vegas still managed to hemorrhage 195 yards to Darrel Williams and company out of the backfield as well. If Mixon was more involved in the passing game you could include him in Bengals stacks, but he’s better off as a bringback to Vegas ones.

RAIDERS

Derek Carr has been “steady as she goes” all year, averaging 20.5 DK PPG and remaining as a top-12 QB in most formats. The problem here is that their WRs are gross in the post-Ruggs era, so it’s really hard to trust any of them outside of Hunter Renfrow. His floor remains solid with a 25% target share over the last seven games, and now has also received four RZ targets over the past two weeks as well (he scored twice). The other obvious play here is Darren Waller, who is too cheap at $6100 despite a difficult matchup (Bengals ninth fewest FPPG allowed to TEs). His target share and RZ share is bankable, which is a rare trait for the TE position, and his price tag is far too cheap.

For the RBs, I never really had any interest in Josh Jacobs to begin with and that’s amplified even more lately as he and Kenyan Drake have devolved into almost an even split for backfield touches. Given the fact that CIN has allowed the most receptions to RBs and that Vegas has run the play action at the second highest rate over the last three weeks, I think Drake is a REALLY fun part of a Raiders stack, or even a bringback off Bengals WRs.

STACK IDEAS
Burrow/Chase/Higgins w/ Waller or Renfrow
Burrow/Chase/Boyd w/ Waller

Carr/Renfrow/Waller w/ Chase or Higgins
Carr/Renfrow/Waller w/ Mixon
Carr/Drake/Waller w/ Chase

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS(GB -1.5, O/U 48)

PACKERS

After the first two, there’s a big drop-off for me as far as upside appeal goes, but there’s a few key places to attack in this one. The Packers have a strong recent history against Minnesota, and it’s possible the Vikes are decimated on defense once again. Michael Pierce and Danielle Hunter are out, and Anthony Barr, Harrison Smith, and Patrick Peterson are all questionable which could mean smooth sailing for this Packers offense. Davante Adams has a 36% target share from Rodgers and has positive TD regression coming his way with 13 RZ targets but only three TDs. He’s still too cheap at $8400. The other WRs don’t really have any appeal for me as we should see a very condensed offense here, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s air yards % warrants the next best look as far as pass catchers go.

AJ Dillon is set up to smash, and his receiving efficiency (89% catch rate) means he can be used in Rodgers/Adams stacks as well. Dillon should also smash as the lead dog in the running game against MIN who has allowed 4.7 YPC and the tenth most FPPG to opposing RBs. Dillon came on to get 23 touches in relief of Aaron Jones last week and faces little to no competition in the backfield.

VIKINGS

I want to be more into the Vikings than I am. However, even without their two top defenders (Zadarius Smith and Jaire Alexander), Green Bay has played unbelievably good defense in the secondary, allowing the third fewest FPPG to WRs. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are still more than stackable as they have combined for 48.3% of the team’s targets this season. Tyler Conklin is also in play as Green Bay is much softer over the middle, and Conklin has 19 targets and four RZ targets over the past three weeks.

Since receiving only 11 touches in week 4 against the Browns, Dalvin Cook has averaged 24 touches per game with 12 targets and two rushing TDs. Green Bay is a middle-of-the-road rush defense, but Cook’s equity is unmatched by most RBs, making him the best bringback to a GB stack.

STACK IDEAS
Rodgers/Adams w/ Cook or Jefferson
Rodgers/Adams/Dillon w/ Cook or Jefferson

Cousins/Jefferson/Thielen w/ Dillon
Cousins/Jefferson/Conklin w/ Dillon or Adams
Cousins/Jefferson/Cook w/ Adams