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DFS Three And Out 2021 week 13
So it's a low-priced dart-toss edition of the DFS Tournament Three And Out. This week, I've picked four very reasonably-priced (and in some cases, downright cheap)) options, all with some upside. Three of them I'm interested in serving up in my GPP Tournament lineups this week. ... And one I'm not.
Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams ($5,300 on DraftKings; $5,500 on FanDuel)
For me, a key to throwing darts in DFS tournaments -- beyond price, is opportunity. As ESPN.com's Matt Bowen noted, with at least six targets in each of his past five games -- and maybe more importantly, a total of 16 targets in both games played with Odell Beckham Jr. -- Jefferson is getting his chances. In fact, as ESPN's Eric Moody points out, even with Beckham playing a greater role in his second outing with the team, Jefferson played the same number of snaps (60) with one more route run (41) last week. Ability and scheme matter too. And we saw Jefferson demonstrate his big-play ability by stretching the field vertically in the Week 12 game at Green Bay. I'm also looking for favorable matchups. While Jacksonville isn't among the league's worst defenses, they have allowed 36 WR fantasy points per game. As Bowen put it, "With enough target volume here in a very positive matchup, plus the proven route structure under head coach Sean McVay," I'll roll the dice on a player Moody characterized as "essentially the 'Great Value' version of Beckham" -- especially one that, as ESPN's Matthew Berry points out, has as many end zone targets over the past five games as Ja'Marr Chase.
Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions ($3,400 on DraftKings; $5,100 on FanDuel)
As Moody noted this week, during their first game back together, Reynolds and Jared Goff hit the ground running. Reynolds, who played with Goff for the last four seasons in Los Angeles, caught three passes for 70 yards, including a 39-yard touchdown in the wideout's Lions' debut. As FantasyPros suggested, "it's nearly impossible to confidently trust any Lions receiver, but Reynolds certainly has the big play ability that could lead to fantasy production week after week." Indeed, it's worth noting that Detroit's other wide receivers caught seven passes for 40 yards last week, 34 of which came after the catch. This weekend, the Lions will attack -- okay, "attack" is a generous description -- a Vikings defense is giving up the second-most fantasy points to the position and one that has allowed 20 points per game to Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Marquise Brown and Amari Cooper over their last five outings. Reynolds is not those guys. Also, his price reflects that. Reynolds is the definition of a dart toss: Workload, matchup, a few intangibles (history with Goff) and a dearth of talent around him. Oh, and it seems likely Detroit will be playing from behind at some point before all is said and done here.
Foster Moreau, TE, Las Vegas Raiders ($2,700 on DraftKings; $5,000 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld put it: "Now playing the role of Darren Waller, please welcome Foster Moreau!" Okay, nobody is going to confuse Moreau for Foster in terms of size, speed or athletic ability. That said, Moreau is not slouch. In addition, over his last two games Moreau has drawn 11 targets on 56 routes run with the higher usage easily correlated to Waller being banged up. In fact, as Jason Schandl pointed out in a piece published no FanDuel.com, the last time Waller missed a full game was Week 7. Moreau got the start and was on the field for 100 percent of the Raiders' offensive snaps - something Waller himself has not done in any game this season. His six targets in that game were good for second on the team. He also played 89 percent of the snaps on Thanksgiving (when Waller made an early exit), racking up 5 targets. Only 10 players at the position have averaged even 6.0 targets per game on the year. Again, opportunity! Also, a soft matchup against a Washington defense that checks in at No. 30 in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA ranking.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears ($5,600 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel)
It get it. There's a lot to like with Mooney. I mean, he just recorded his third game with 120-plus receiving yards this season (only Cooper Kupp with four, has more such games). Two of them have come in the last two weeks with Allen Robinson sidelined by a hamstring injury. Even assuming Robinson returns this week, nobody should see Mooney as anything but Chicago's WR1. But, as Berry pointed out, Mooney has lit up defenses that struggle against the deep ball this season and Arizona's defense is in the top six for the season in completion percentage on deep passes and touchdown rate on deep passes. So it's a tough matchup for a player who has done all his damage the last two games on 10 total catches (meaning he's only caught 41.7 percent of his 24 targets in those two games). Not surprisingly, 45 percent of Mooney's points this season have come on deep passes. So even though the opportunities will be there -- and the price isn't horrible, the matchup isn't conducive to a big game.