DFS Three And Out 2020 week 4
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
It's a special "Reasonably-Priced Quarterback-palooza Edition" of the Three and Out this week!
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins ($5,400 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
In the first three games of the season against the Falcons, Patriots and Cowboys, the Seahawks defense has allowed an average of 430.7 yards per game passing. The 1,292 passing yards allowed in the first three games of the season is the most in league history over that span since at least 1950. Digging deeper, ESPN's Mike Clay notes that Seattle has allowed at least 33 targets, 23 catches, 330 yards and 56 fantasy points to wide receivers in each of its three games. Opposing wideouts are averaging 10.8 yards per target (highest in the NFL), have caught 72 percent of their targets (fourth highest), have seen seven end zone targets (second most) and have scored five touchdowns (second most). So sure, I'd be fine rolling out DeVante Parker, Preston Williams or tight end Mike Gesicki, who works as a de facto wideout, to the defense that's yielded the most fantasy points to the position. Or I could roll with the man distributing the ball to those wideouts. In fact, given the price, Fitzpatrick's tendency to come up big on occasion (like last week when he tossed two touchdowns on just 18 completions and also ran for a score) and a Miami defense that's going to be overmatched against Russell Wilson and his weapons, this is the preferred route for me. Remember, the Seahawks have also allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and, as ESPN's Matthew Berry notes, from Week 10 on last year, Fitzpatrick is the sixth-best QB in total fantasy points. Feel free to stack with any of his weapons, whether it's Parker, Williams, Gesicki or even Isaiah Ford, who's been targeted 15 times so far this season (including nine targets in Week 2).
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,300 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)
Yes. This one seems obvious. Burrow is throwing the ball. A lot. The rookie currently ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts (and completions) this season. As Berry points out, since 2014, only two QBs have scored at least 60-plus fantasy points total in their first three starts: Patrick Mahomes and Burrow. This week, Burrow takes on a Jaguars defense that allowed 25-plus fantasy points to both Ryan Tannehill and Fitzpatrick the past two weeks. Adding to the intrigue, as ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld notes, Jacksonville has allowed the most red-zone drives (14) in the league this season. Considering that Burrow has thrown 141 pass attempts through three games, volume and matchup make this one work for me. Throw in a bevy of serviceable (or better) downfield weapons and it works even better.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans ($6,600 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel)
Houston opened the season with about as brutal a schedule as imaginable, facing the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers. The good news is that the schedule will be much smoother going forward, starting with Minnesota this week. As Clay noted, the Vikings' cornerback room opened the 2020 season by getting lit up by Green Bay to the tune of 315 yards, four touchdowns and 79 fantasy points in Week 1. The unit bounced back against the Colts in Week 2, but crashed again last week with 228 yards allowed to the A.J. Brown-less Titans. Even with the stronger game against the Colts, Minnesota has allowed a player to go over 110 receiving yards in all three of its games this season and they have now allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the sixth most to the perimeter and seventh most to the slot. So there's a lot to like down the field and Watson has the weapons in David Johnson, Will Fuller (assuming his hamstring isn't an issue), Brandin Cooks, Randal Cobb, Kenny Stills, Jordan Akins and Darren Fells to challenge the Vikings at every level. The big issue for Watson this season has been dealing with the opponents' pass rush. In this case, as Berry points out, Minnesota is 22nd in pressure rate on the season and last in quarterback contact percentage. Beyond that, the Texans have struggled to keep drives going, averaging just 54.0 plays per game (which ranks as the second-fewest to only the Vikings). However, as Tagliere points out, the Vikings' opponents have been able to sustain long drives and have averaged a robust 72.0 plays per game this year. Only the Seahawks and Falcons have allowed more. It's rebound time for Watson and I'm getting in on it.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,300 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft readily conceded this week, the Chargers' defense has been hit hard by injuries, with defensive end Melvin Ingram (knee) and defensive tackle Justin Jones (shoulder) now on injured reserve. But in their absence, the team has also gotten good production from Uchenna Nwosu, and the Chargers still have Joey Bosa solidifying their defensive line. Brady, on the other hand, enters this game almost certainly without the hamstring Chris Godwin, with Scott Miller slowed to some degree by hip and groin injuries and Leonard Fournette unlikely to be of assistance due to an ankle issue. While Justin Watson and Rob Gronkowski will be asked to play greater roles, Brady will obviously lean heavily on Mike Evans, who will see plenty of Chargers CB Casey Hayward Jr. According to Clay, Hayward hasn't allowed much in coverage this season and the Chargers have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers overall and seventh fewest to the perimeter. Clay added these two players haven't met since a 2016 game in which Hayward shadowed Evans on 24 of his 30 routes. It was a while ago, but for what it's worth, Evans was held to three catches for 38 yards on six targets in the game. Beyond that, as Cockroft pointed out, dating back to the start of last year, the Chargers have allowed just three top-12 quarterback performances, with two of them being Mahomes and Watson. I'm not saying Brady can't get it done in the red zone, even with limited weapons. I just don't expect it in this one.