DFS Three And Out 2018 Week 12

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

(Note: I’m usually a cheapskate and my love of the low-end fliers I usually roll out in this piece is illustrative of that. This week, however, is a special, holiday “Go Big Or Go Home” special with guys I’m paying up for -- or not.)

I'm In:

Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($8,600 on DraftKings; $8,900 on Fanduel)

I don't like to do the whole Captain Obvious thing in this column, but damn. ... Gordon is quietly stating his case that there is more than one elite all-purpose running back in Los Angeles. Sure, all eyes are usually on Todd Gurley and you've probably fared reasonable well (this past Monday night notwithstanding) if you've paid up for him on a weekly basis. But with Gurley on bye, it might be time to take a minute to remind ourselves just how good Gordon is. Going into Sunday's game against Arizona (and assuming his limited practice Thursday is just a blip on the radar), the fourth-year back has six straight games where he has had 120 yards or more from scrimmage. As Associated Press sports writer Joe Reedy notes, Gordon is averaging 132.1 yards from scrimmage per game, which is second to Gurley. He is also averaging 6.4 yards per touch, which is fourth, while Gurley is averaging 5.9 yards, which is tied for sixth. Gordon has 42 receptions and is on track to surpass last year's career high of 58. The increased receptions are fine with Gordon as long as he gets the ball. When Gordon has caught the ball out of the backfield, he has made the most of it. He is the only back in the league that has more than 40 receptions and 100 rushing attempts to average over 10.5 (10.7) yards per catch. He is also tied for second in the league with four catches of 25 or more yards. The receptions have also taken less of a toll on Gordon's body instead of running between the tackles 20-25 times a game. But when he does run the ball, Gordon has been one of the tougher backs to take down. According to SportRadar, Gordon is fourth in rushing yards after contact (399) and second in broken tackles with 27. And did I mention he's playing the Cardinals this week? Arizona has allowed the fourth most points to running backs so far this season. Go ahead and pay up here (final injury report/inactive announcement willing; check as appropriate prior to lock).

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns ($6,300 on DraftKings; $7,500 on Fanduel)

Chubb has a legitimate chance of breaking the Browns' rookie rushing record of 950 yards set by Trent Richardson in 2012. Chubb has 579 rushing yards with six games to play. He would have to average 62 yards a game to break the record. He has never run for fewer than 60 yards since becoming the starter on Oct. 21 in a game in Tampa. He had over 200 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against the Falcons prior to last week's bye. It was a prime example of a player making good on a plus matchup. So can he do that again? As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out this week, only Aaron Jones of the Packers has averaged better than Chubb's 6.5 yards per carry up the middle this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals are giving up the fourth-most yards per carry up the middle this season (4.8). Also per Berry, four running backs have rushed for at least 85 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals this season, including Peyton Barber and Gus Edwards. Adding to the Chubb love, from Week 7 (his first start) through his last game (Week 10), no player in the NFL had more rushing attempts than Chubb. Looking for more DFS goodness in this game, with at least two passing touchdowns in four straight games, Baker Mayfield ($5,500 on DraftKings; $7,500 on Fanduel) going up against a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season is also appealing.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants ($8,800 on DraftKings; $8,500 on Fanduel)

It is a great week to pay up for Beckham as the Giants are taking on the second worst team at stopping receivers this year, the Eagles. While nobody would consider him a low floor player, it's the ceiling were' interested in here. OBJ has five games of over 100 receiving yards and at least eight catches. He could see another one of those games this week. As ESPN's Mike Clay understated, cornerback has been a problem area for the Eagles all season long, and the situation is even worse now with injuries piling up at an absurd rate. Jalen Mills has been out since Week 8 and Sidney Jones went down again in Week 11. Both are dicey to play in Week 12. Replacements Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox both exited Sunday's beatdown in New Orleans with injuries and are questionable (though more likely to play) for Week 12. While no one will mistake Eli Manning for Drew Brees, the fact remains that the Saints and Cowboys lit up the Eagles secondary, combining for 643 yards through the air over the last two games and the Eagles are currently allowing a league-high 33.7 fantasy points per week to perimeter receivers. With that kind of production, just think what Beckham might be able to record when the final buzzer sounds Sunday.

I'm Out

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers ($5,800 on DraftKings; $8,600 on Fanduel)

It's not you Aaron. It's me. ... Okay. It's not me. It's your receiving corps. I mean, you're good enough to help them out in lousy matchups and all, but the options will be limited. Let's roll through it, shall we? With Jimmy Graham's broken thumb, he's probably not going to be a ton of help in this one. And though he might wind up returning this week, Randall Cobb is still dealing with a hamstring injury that's cost him five of the last seven games (plus a bye week), including the last two weeks in a row. Since you're also without Geronimo Allison, the focus has been on Davante Adams and rookies Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. No offense to the newcomers, but it's been hit or miss for them. And Adams? He's gold. But he's just one guy. And this week, he's just one guy going up against Xavier Rhodes, who has earned All-Pro honors the past two seasons for good reason. Yes, Adams had his way with Rhodes in the Week 2 tie at Lambeau Field (with eight receptions for 64 yards and one touchdown), but Clay points out the Vikings are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers overall this year, including the third-fewest over the past eight weeks. In addition, their defense is also allowing an NFL-low 1.8 touchdowns per game. And this one is in Minnesota. I'm sure you're even more aware of this than I am Aaron, but your team has yet to win a game on the road this year. And who's more unhappy with Mike McCarthy's play calling than you are? I mean, you're the one who tossed McCarthy and the game-planning ability under the bus after the Week 4 win over Buffalo. And it’s still not right even if you now say you're as involved as you need to be in the game-planning process. ... Truthfully? I hope you're so offended by my lack of support, you explode for your biggest game of the season just to make me look stupid for doubting you. But again Aron, it's not you. It's everybody and everything else.