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DFS 3 and OUT 2017 WEEK 16

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens

I'm not going to lie. I wanted to roll with Case Keenum here. I mean, the Vikings are going up against the Packers, who gave up four touchdown passes each to Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton, while allowing DeShone Kizer (3) and Jameis Winston (2) to toss multiple TD passes in between those four-score embarrassments. Keenum, meanwhile, has thrown two touchdown passes in five straight games. But money talks and Keenum's price tag ($6100 on DraftKings; $7900 on FanDuel) pretty much reflects the matchup. I'm fine paying for him (and I will in at least some of my lineups), but the money tells me Flacco ($5100 on DraftKings; $7400 on FanDuel) needs some attention this week. So does his matchup at home against the Colts. In case you haven't been following along at home, Flacco was inconsistent over the early part of the season after missing all of training camp with an injured back. But he's gotten better over the past month and thrown for at least 275 yards with four touchdowns and just one interception over the past three games. Adding to the intrigue, the Colts have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Also worth noting, Ravens receiver Mike Wallace is making big plays downfield again. Over the past three games, Wallace has caught 14 passes for 277 yards. Even with Jeremy Maclin all but certain to miss this one with a knee injury, his likely replacement, Chris Moore, has caught nine passes for 117 yards with a touchdown. My biggest concern here is the same as it is with Keenum; that being their respective team gets a lead and the QBs are relegated to handoff machines as the rushing attacks take over. That's why Flacco's cheaper price is important here.

Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Woods returned from a three-week absence last week and it's safe to say his shoulder was not only healed, but the former Bills wideout stepped right back into his role as Jared Goff's top downfield weapon. Woods hauled in six of seven targets for 45 yards and a touchdown in Seattle. Yes, the Rams will continue to lean as heavily on Todd Gurley as possible any given Sunday, but that hasn't been a detriment to Woods. As ESPN's Stephania Bell pointed out, since Week 3, Woods ranks as the seventh-best WR on a per-game basis, ahead of names like Adam Thielen, Julio Jones and A.J. Green. ESPN's Mike Clay chimed in by noting that Woods ranks ninth at the position in fantasy points during the 11 weeks he's been active this season. This week, he goes up against a Titans defense that's allowed 34 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs (tied for sixth-worst in the league) this season. All of which makes it a little bit surprising that 27 wideouts on DraftKings and 31 on FanDuel will cost you more than Woods ($5700 on DraftKings; $6600 on FanDuel) will this weekend. The price will afford you ample opportunity to pay up elsewhere and the matchup offers enough upside (Woods has a pair of two-TD games this season) to appeal to me.

Wayne Gallman, RB, New York Giants

Yeah. This is my dart toss of the week, so bear with me here. ... The rookie fourth-round pick has quietly slipped into the rotation for snaps, and he has delivered. Gallman's 4.3 average yards per carry ties him for seventh in the league among rookie running backs with at least 10 carries. In his last two games, including against a tough Eagles run defense, Gallman has 98 yards on 20 carries (4.9 average). In addition to being a steady runner with breakaway speed he owns six of the Giants' 31 big-play runs of 10 or more yards Gallman has also shown himself to be a reliable all-purpose back. The rookie has 149 yards on 28 receptions and a touchdown as a receiver out of the backfield, giving him 518 all-purpose yards in 11 games played (he was inactive for the first three games of the season). As ESPN's Field Yates pointed out, only Le'Veon Bell has more catches among running backs than Gallman's 13 catches over the past two weeks. While the Cardinals defense currently ranks sixth against the run, allowing opponents an average of 92.1 yards per game, Gallman's versatility out of the backfield could help open things up for the offense and keep the Cardinals guessing regarding how he'll be used. Better still, Gallman's price ($3900 on DraftKings; $4800 on FanDuel) will offer you tons of flexibility when it comes to paying up for others.

I'm Out

LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

Let's not get it twisted: I love McCoy. And this week's matchup against the Patriots is sweet as can be. As the Sports Xchange noted, New England has struggled against the run pretty much all season, ranking 26th in the NFL. The Patriots rank dead last in the NFL in average yards allowed per rush at 4.9, so there should be some opportunities to move the sticks for Buffalo. McCoy leads Buffalo with 259 rushes for 1,057 yards (4.1 average) and six touchdowns and just went over 10,000 yards for his career. When these teams met in early December in Buffalo, McCoy had 93 yards on just 15 attempts (6.2 average) for a Bills attack that ran for 183 yards overall. New England is banged up and undermanned on the front seven and one of Buffalo's primary goals has to be keeping the ball away from Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. In the first game between these two teams, a 23-3 Bills loss, the Patriots had the ball for 20 minutes in the second half as they pulled away from a 9-3 halftime lead. That has to go the other way for the Bills this time. But what if it doesn't? What if game flow follows a similar pattern and the Patriots dominate time of possession and Buffalo fails to score a touchdown again. Which brings up another point: As ESPN's Scott Kacsmar pointed out, the Patriots are lousy against the run in general, but they're damn stingy when it comes to giving up rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. They've only allowed five all season. Only the Titans (four) have allowed fewer. So given the fact that McCoy ($8400 on DraftKings; $8600 on FanDuel) is the third-highest price running back on both the major sites, I'll be fading.