DFS Three And Out 2021 week 17

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris

All right folks, no shortage of possibilities on the Week 17 slate. So many pieces to like. So many great values with upside. Some weeks, I wish the "three" was more. And sometimes I wish the "out" could be another "in." But the job is "three and out," so here we go!




I'm In

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams ($7,100 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel)

There are multiple reasons to like Stafford this week. First of all, he's coming off a poor showing. In fact, his 11 point outing against the Vikings was his worst fantasy output of the season. It was even worse if you watched it. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes, Stafford lacked zip on many of his throws, most notably completing just 3 of 13 passes with a 54 percent off-target rate on his attempts at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Cockroft believes Stafford came up so short in terms of the eyeball test that those who witnessed it will have some doubts about Stafford's bounce-back prospects. I hope that's the case, because the matchup against Baltimore is too good for me to overlook. "These Ravens, after all," Cockroft wrote, "were obliterated" for 525 yards and four touchdowns passing by Joe Burrow thank to an injury-depleted secondary. In fact, Aaron Rodgers and Burrow combined to throw for 793 yards and seven touchdowns without a single interception against this defense over the past two weeks. Overall, Baltimore is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year. Better still, the Ravens secondary has been dismal all seasons against offenses that roll out three wide receivers. Per Cockroft, when defending "11" personnel (1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE), the Ravens' 102.6 passer rating allowed is seventh worst in the league. The Rams, meanwhile, have used "11" personnel on 83 percent of their offensive snaps this season, the highest rate in the league, while the Bengals have done so on a second-most 77 percent. With a stable of capable playmakers led by the nearly-unstoppable Cooper Kupp. Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson add to the big-play upside. You know what else I like? Yep. That price, especially on FanDuel, where you'll find nine quarterbacks that cost you more.



Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,500 on DraftKings; $8,500 on FanDuel)

Let's see. ... The Chiefs offense hasn't been consistent this season, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. have started to find their groove, with K.C. averaging 39.3 points per game over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the Bengals explosive offense -- averaging 27.3 points per game (seventh in NFL) and 365.9 total yards per game this season (12th) -- is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. We could be in for a shootout Sunday. And yes, Joe Burrow and his wideouts, Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd, all cashed in on a plus matchup against the aforementioned Ravens secondary last week, but so did Mixon. As FantasyPros notes, Mixon's usage in the passing game has been erratic this season, but he had a season-high six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore last Sunday, adding 65 rushing yards and another touchdown on 18 carries. Per FantasyPros, the Chiefs have given up 118 targets and 813 receiving yards to running backs this season, so perhaps he'll be able to top his rushing numbers with another solid receiving day. But what about those rushing totals in this one? According to ESPN's Seth Walder, Najee Harris' performance against them last week confirms that while the Chiefs defense is much better than it was, you can still run on them. Harris, who has struggled with efficiency all year, managed 93 yards on 19 carries (4.9 yards per carry) against the Chiefs in a blowout loss. Now it's Mixon, who plays behind a much better run-blocking line than Harris, who benefits from the Chiefs' run defense. With an over/under of 48.5 points, Mixon's ability to deliver as a runner and receiver make him desirable to me.




Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions ($6,000 on DraftKings; $6,900 on FanDuel)

As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, over the past four weeks, St. Brown is averaging 22.4 points per game on a 33.6 target share, and the only player with more catches than St. Brown over the stretch is Cooper Kupp. ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld adds that St. Brown is one of only eight players to have seen double-digit targets in four straight games this season. He has also scored 15.0 DraftKings points in four straight games, with a touchdown in three of those contests. Better still, St. Brown's faces a Seattle defense allowing the fourth-most yards per pass attempt over the past four weeks. What if Jared Goff doesn't play? No worries. Backup Tim Boyle gets it. He targeted St. Brown 11 times in his start against the Falcons last week and St. Brown hauled in nine of them for 91 yards with a touchdown.





I'm Out

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals ($7,300 on DraftKings; $8,200 on FanDuel)

As Berry framed it, "This game is a matchup of a slumping quarterback facing a red-hot pass defense. ..." That's not a winning combo. How bad has that slump been? In his two games without DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal, Murray completed less than 60 percent of his passes. He also has just two touchdown passes on 133 attempts in his past three games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have the league's interceptions leader in cornerback Trevon Diggs (11) and the likely Defensive Rookie of the Year in linebacker Micah Parsons (13 sacks, 79 tackles, 18 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles). They also yield the third-lowest completion rate, give up touchdown passes at the seventh-lowest rate and, since Week 4, have allowed only three quarterbacks to score 16 or more fantasy points against them. On the season, they're allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to the position this season.