DFS Three And Out 2020 week 8
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,200 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)
Is it as easy as plugging in whoever is playing against the Cowboys defense on any given weekend? Ummmm. ... Yes? The Cowboys have given up at least 20 points in the first half of six consecutive games -- something no NFL team has done since at least 2000. The only time coordinator Mike Nolan's group was stingier than that through two quarters was in a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, when LA only scored 13 by halftime. Since then, though, the first-half point totals for Dallas opponents: 29, 23, 31, 20, 21 and 22. At this point, coordinator Mike Nolan's defense is on pace to give up 555 points this season. The Cowboys have not had an interception in 183 pass attempts and they rank bottom-three in the NFL in touchdown pass rate allowed and yards per completion. But the price is also right. And Wentz has been better than you think. As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, since Week 3, Wentz is the fifth-best QB in fantasy. He has 21 or more points and a rushing touchdown in five of the last six games. He's also thrown for two touchdowns in each of the last three games.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans ($6,800 on DraftKings; $7500 on FanDuel)
As CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg reminded us this week, Tannehill has now started a full season worth of games for the Titans going back to last year, and he's scored at least 20 fantasy points in 14 of them. So he's been pretty good. Okay, he's been very good. Throw in the fact now has multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and four of five, he's been surprisingly good (even if we should be used to the high-end production by now). Yes, we have to worry about Derrick Henry-heavy days. But Henry and Tannehill having big days are not mutually exclusive. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Tannehill and Henry are the only teammates in NFL history with at least 30 touchdown passes and 2,000 rushing yards in a 16-game span. Also, did I mention Tannehill is good? And that he has a great matchup this week? How good you ask? In Cincinnati's past two games against Philip Rivers and Baker Mayfield, they have allowed 668 passing yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Four of the past five quarterbacks against Cincinnati have scored at least 24 fantasy points, and the average score of those quarterbacks -- Wentz, Gardner Minshew, Lamar Jackson, Rivers and Mayfield -- is 26.6 points. Over the last four weeks, they've given up a league-high 12 touchdown passes thanks in part to their inability to pressure opposing QBs. Overall, the Bengals are allowing a touchdown on 36.4 percent of red-zone passes (third-highest in the NFL). Tennessee is tied for third with 4.2 red-zone drives per game. ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld notes the Titans are also the second-most efficient red zone offense at 80 percent. If there's a concern, it's Bengals Corner William Jackson III, who should return from concussion this week. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, A.J. Brown has been red-hot since returning from injury in Week 5, racking up four touchdowns and 23.8 fantasy points per game during his past three outings, obviously helping Tannehill greatly. Brown will have his hands full this week against one of this season's top corners, but I'm willing to take my chances given Tannehill's ability to find the open man while choosing from an array of targets not named Brown. Whatever the case, I like Tannehill. I like the matchup. And as ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld noted, "Tannehill is fairly priced on DraftKings, but super cheap on FanDuel."
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders ($5,500 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)
As Eisenberg pointed out, Carr comes into this matchup against the Browns with at least 22 Fantasy points in four of his past five games, and his worst outing over that stretch was 19 points in Week 3 at New England. FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere notes the Browns have allowed 107.5 fantasy points per game through seven games, which ranks as the fourth-highest number in football. Almost all the production they've allowed to quarterbacks has been through the air, too, as they've allowed the second-most fantasy points through the air alone. Four quarterbacks this season have already had three-touchdown games against Cleveland, including Joe Burrow last week. Tagliere went on to suggest if Carr gets the volume that most quarterback have against Cleveland (the average has been 40.7 pass attempts per game) and continues his efficient ways, he should be throwing for close to 300 yards this week. Adding to the intrigue, Carr has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games (including a pair of three-TD games). Also, the over/under in this game is 54.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,600 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
Is it as easy as avoiding whatever quarterback is playing against the Ravens on any given weekend? Ummmm. ... Yes? As Tagliere reminded us, outside of a game against Patrick Mahomes in Week 3, the Ravens haven't allowed a quarterback to average more than 7.6 yards per attempt. Outside of that Mahomes game, they've allowed four passing touchdowns in the other five games combined. They have allowed three top-18 quarterback performances this year, but every one of those quarterbacks had a rushing touchdown. Roethlisberger doesn't run many in (his last rushing touchdown came in 2018). Also, he hasn't been great the last two weeks. As Berry pointed out, Big Ben had just 162 passing yards two weeks ago and three interceptions at Tennessee on Sunday, scoring fewer than 13 fantasy points in each game. Roethlisberger has hit 20 fantasy points only twice this season. Berry added, "It's unlikely that any of those numbers turn around against a Ravens defense that is top-five in both pressure rate and touchdown passes allowed and has had two weeks to prep."