DFS Three And Out 2020 week 7
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($4,900 on DraftKings; $5,400 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft noted this week, Kirk's role and fantasy production have seen an uptick during the past three weeks, as he has played 67 percent of the Cardinals' offensive snaps and seen a 16 percent (14 of 86) target share and averaged 17 fantasy points per game, second most on the team behind only quarterback Kyler Murray. Beyond that, as ESPN's Matthew Berry wrote, "We saw on Monday night what a healthy Kirk can do as a deep receiver." Indeed, Kirk -- not DeAndre Hopkins -- leads Arizona in deep targets this season. That's a huge reason he was able to exploit a favorable matchup in the win over Dallas. Guess what? It's another favorable matchup. And yes, that's an understatement. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, "No defense has matched Seattle's incompetence against wide receivers this season," as the Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to the position, including the most to the perimeter (and fourth most to the slot). Kirk lines up on the perimeter 85 percent of the time. To p8ut all this in perspective, Cockroft notes the Seahawks have allowed a league-high eight games with at least 20 points to individual wideouts, which is even more remarkable than it would be considering the Seahawks have already had their bye week. To further quantify that, Seattle has allowed 19 more catches and 167 more yards to WRs than any other team in the NFL this season. This is a great matchup at a bargain price.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team ($5,800 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
Speaking of great matchups. ... Dallas has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and the third-most to wideouts who line up on the perimeter. The heavily-targeted (There hasn't been a game this year where he's seen fewer than seven targets) McLaurin has aligned on the perimeter for 72 percent of his routes this season, so Clay notes Scary Terry will see either Trevon Diggs on most of his routes (if he's shadowed) or some combination of Diggs and Anthony Brown, who replaced Daryl Worley during Monday's blowout loss. Diggs has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points in coverage among corners this season. The Cowboys have allowed five different receivers total 100-plus yards against them. Better still, Dallas has allowed 11 touchdowns to wide receivers through six games. And according to Berry, of the eight different receivers to see six or more targets versus Dallas this season, they've averaged 22.7 fantasy points per game.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,400 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)
Have I mentioned the importance of matchups? The Jaguars have allowed the second-most yards per attempt (8.56) in all of football and a league-high 73.4 percent completion-rate. But as FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere pointed out, the issue is that teams have gone extremely run-heavy against them (which to be honest, derailed my Matthew Stafford shares in Detroit's tilt with the Jags last week). Still, no quarterback has averaged less than 7.19 yards per attempt, so they haven't needed much volume to produce. In addition, I'm not sure how trustworthy the Justin Jackson-Joshua Kelley backfield duo is (although the matchup is great for them). Regardless, as Tagliere notes, oddsmakers have given them a 28.5-point team-implied total, is interesting considering Herbert has thrown for seven touchdowns over his last two games against the Bucs and Saints defenses, which are no pushovers. He's also athletic enough to earn some fantasy points with his legs as well. But it's the touchdown pass upside I'm after, and Herbert has that at a truly reasonable price.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints ($6,100 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel)
Yes. I realize he could have Michael Thomas back -- although that's not certain. Also yes, I realize Brees has played better over the last three games than he did to open the year. But, as Cockroft pointed out, Brees has been more conservative throwing the football than ever, as his average depth of target of 5.9 yards is the lowest in the 15 seasons for which ESPN has tracked that data, and his accuracy has crept downward -- his 1.7 percent interception and 13.4 percent off-target rates are his worst since 2016 and 2015. Adding to the concerns, Berry points out the Panthers allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks thanks to a league-low 6.1 yards per attempt against this season and only one game in which they've surrendered multiple touchdown passes. Carolina has held Derek Carr (Week 1), Tom Brady (Week 2) and Matt Ryan (Week 5) to their season lows for fantasy points. One reason for that, as Tagliere pointed out, teams have found it much easier to go on the ground against the Panthers, as quarterbacks have averaged just 13.9 fantasy points per game, while running backs have averaged a massive 32.3 PPR points. Alvin Kamara is a super-good running back. Brees takes a back seat.