DFS Three And Out 2016 week 20

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers
The Packers have a lot of weapons in the passing game, but a majority of them (Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Jeff Janis) opened the week on the team's injury report. Even if all of them are ready to roll at full speed, it's easy to contend Ty Montgomery is the skill player the Packers need to go off to get a win in the Georgia Dome. Even if the receiver-turned-running back won’t pile up a ton of rushing yards, his ability to produce as both a runner and receiver work in his favor. In addition, as Profootballfocus.com pointed out this week, the Falcons gave up a league-high 109 receptions, 870 receiving yards and six touchdowns to running backs this year, and Montgomery is averaging over five targets per game over his last four outings. He has also carried the ball about 10 times per game. Opportunities should abound and his price ($5,600 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel) provides plenty of flexibility to work with the rest of your lineup. For what it's worth, I could also get on board with Allison this week; early indications are his injury won't keep him from playing while NFL Network's Ian Rapoport considers Nelson a longshot and Adams isn't expected to practice until Saturday. Allison's price ($3,800 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel), recent usage (at least five targets in three of the team's last four games), the injury situation and the Packers being an underdog (which should lead to a pass-heavy day) all combine to make him of interest as well, assuming his injury is as minor as he claimed on Wednesday (Allison said he sat out practice for "precautionary reasons" and Rapoport expects him to play). That the over/under has risen to 61 points is also appealing.

Taylor Gabriel, WR, Atlanta Falcons
While plenty of attention will be paid to star receiver Julio Jones and the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and for good reason, the newest weapon in Matt Ryan’s arsenal is Taylor, the speedy slot man who has emerged as a dangerous weapon. Ryan hit Gabriel over the top for a 47-yard TD in the first Packers-Falcons meeting back on Oct. 30. It was Gabriel’s first score and the first time he surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game as a Falcon, finishing with three catches for 68 yards. Since then, he has found the end zone five more times and topped 50 yards six times in nine games. How dangerous is he? Packers.com's Mike Spofford believes the diminutive speedster is the toughest matchup for Green Bay's defense outside of Julio Jones. In fact, as PFF noted, Gabriel should run about half of his routes against Damarious Randall, "who is by far the worst remaining starting cornerback in the playoffs." Gabriel, according to PFF, averages 0.51 fantasy points per route run, third among all wideouts playing this weekend -- behind only Jones and Antonio Brown. Randall gives up 0.51 points per route run, most among all corners playing this weekend. And like Montgomery, Taylor's price ($4,900 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel) leaves ample leeway to pay up elsewhere. And did I mention that 61-point over/under?

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
So. ... Here I go again. I'll start by pointing out that Tom Brady has always had big games against the Steelers, including five straight with a passer rating of 100 or better, with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games, with completion percentages at or above 70 percent in each outing. And as the Sports Xchange suggests, this certainly could be a game where the offense opens with spread sets, Dion Lewis in the backfield and Brady looking to pick apart the Steelers with a quick passing game. Indeed, that's how it played out last week, when Lewis played a season-high 33 snaps against the Texans while Blount got 27 snaps. As ESPN.com's Mike Reiss noted, Lewis started against Houston and was clearly the team’s top option, as his dual threat as a pass-catcher showed up when the Patriots used him in heavier groupings and exploited a mismatch with him against the Texans’ bigger linebackers. Blount played eight snaps in the first half and then saw his workload increase in the second half. But will that be the plan against a younger, faster Steelers' defense? As we all know, New England's running back usage is based on matchups. So as numberFire.com's Jason Schandl suggested, we shouldn't let the down week scare us off. Blount has at least 18 carries in 11 of his 17 games this season, while he also saw 42 goal-line touches on the season -- which is 41 percent of the Patriots' total goal-line snaps. Schandl concedes that Lewis' re-emergence will likely push Blount to the background, but Schandl contends Blount still has plenty of appeal, especially against a Steelers team that allowed top-10 fantasy production to running backs in the regular season. And part of that appeal is price. Blount ($4,400 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel) is now cheaper than Lewis ($5,300 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel) on both the major sites and it's fair to believe many players will chase Lewis' big game against the Texans. Bottom line? I'm going back to the well again, even though Blount came up small for me last week.

I'm Out

All Healthy Players Are Fair Game This Week
Look. I'm not here to cop out on my final Three and Out of the season. But it's a two-game slate kids and we're talking tournament plays. Both contests are appealing with the Packers-Falcons and boasting the above-mentioned 61-point over/under and the Steelers/Patriots coming in at a robust 51 points. There's no shortage of value plays boasting notable upside which means you'll have all the flexibility necessary to get the high-end players in your lineups without putting yourself in a bind at other positions. So feel free to pay up for any/all of the healthy prospects on both teams. As I mentioned, I'm not looking to cop out, so I'll tell you that I'm leery of the Falcons' split backfield (both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) and I'm not all that keen on chasing Lewis' three-TD effort in last Saturday’s win over the Texans (for reasons outlined above). Nor am I big on any of the tight ends in this week's contests (Jared Cook notwithstanding). But I’m clearly going to play a tight end and Freeman, Coleman and Lewis aren’t necessarily persona non grata. So it’s like this: I'm going to avoid clear injury concerns; I suspect by the end of the week, Jones and Adams will not fall into that category (I'll certainly have Jones in some lineups while Saturday's practice will likely a determining factor for Adams). Malcolm Mitchell remains a concern, but I don't think Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola or Martellus Bennett will be off limits for me (although Bennett has been a dud in recent weeks). I don't think Nelson will play, but even if he does, I'll avoid him and I'll probably do the same with Ladarius Green, even though he'll almost certainly be available for full duty if cleared. If I had to exclude one of the QBs this week, it would probably be Ben Roethlisberger. As Bleacher Report's Doug Farrar pointed out on Wednesday, Roethlisberger completed 86 of 136 passes for 1,074 yards in December with six touchdowns and six interceptions. Things haven't been any better in the postseason as he completed 33 of 49 passes for 421 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions combined in wins over Miami and Kansas City. Of primary concern to Farrar would be Big Ben's failure to connect on deep passes in playoff action -- something he excelled at in the regular season (when he led the league with 13 touchdowns on passes of 20 yards or more in the air with just three picks). In the postseason, however, Roethlisberger has completed just one such pass on four attempts. To put that in perspective, Farrar notes that Aaron Rodgers has nine deep completions on 23 attempts. And Tom Brady completed six of 11 deep passes in one playoff game. Still, Roethlisberger is the most reasonably-priced ($5,800 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel) of all the starting QBs this week and it’s easy to argue a supporting cast featuring play-makers like Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell (one of the NFL's most dangerous receiving backs) lend considerable viability. ... To sum up, take some chances this week; don't be afraid to pay up for the high-end prospects in either game. Throw some touchdown darts at under-the-radar players (Falcons tight ends, the bottom of the Packers' receiving depth chart, the entire range of the Patriots wide-receiving corps) and enjoy yourself.