DFS Three And Out 2016 week 12

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
Yes, the Giants' passing offense is set to face a Browns defense that last week held Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a season-low 167 passing yards in a game played in windy conditions. But the Browns defense has also struggled to sack the quarterback of late; last week they were shut out under that column in the stat sheet by the Steelers while the Giants' offensive line was doing its own shutout of the Bears' defense. If the Giants can keep Manning upright, the passing game has a chance to take over against a Browns defense whose tackling has been far from crisp this season and one that's allowed a league-high 25 touchdown passes and the second-most passing yards. Manning, meanwhile, has quietly racked up nine touchdowns over his past three games. Assuming the rushing attack can continue its roll against Cleveland's equally toothless run defense, Ben McAdoo might be able to open up his play calling allowing Manning ($6,500 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel) to fully utilize his wideouts, tight ends and backfield to generate the kind of explosive plays that lead to big totals. As 247Sports.com suggested, "It could finally be time for the four touchdown and 300-plus yard passing game that Manning completed so frequently in 2014 and 2015." I'm in!

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks
I suspect a lot of people will be targeting a different Seahawk -- Thomas Rawls -- this week. I get it. With C.J. Prosise (shoulder) and Troymaine Pope (ankle) both out, Rawls ($5,700 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel) is pretty much the only game in town when it comes to Seattle running backs. And Rawls looked good against a tough Eagles run defense last week. So yeah. I get it. ... That said, given those multiple injuries at running back, Seattle will certainly look to take advantage of a porous Buccaneers pass defense. The Seahawks have gained over 400 yards offensively in each of their last two games and Baldwin is their leading receiver with five touchdowns. Tampa Bay could be without CB Brent Grimes (quad), who is questionable. And CB Jude Adjei-Barimah is serving a four-game suspension for PEDs. That puts a lot of pressure on Vernon Hargreaves, the rookie from Florida. I don't think Hargreaves will be up to handling Baldwin, who benefits from an increasingly healthy and effective Russell Wilson. In addition, Baldwin's price ($6,400 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel) is below guys like Brandon Marshall, Kenny Britt, Kelvin Benjamin and Jarvis Landry (depending on the site), none of whom seem to have Baldwin's upside.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Green-Beckham had his best game of the season against Seattle, catching five passes for 54 yards and one touchdown. Carson Wentz appears to be gaining trust in Green-Beckham and with Nelson Agholor struggling so badly he's spending time with a sports psychologist, Philly.com's Zach Berman believes DGB will likely be the biggest beneficiary. He has 57 percent of the offensive snaps this season, and he took 80 percent against the Seahawks last Sunday. Yes, Jordan Matthews is a solid play as well going up against a Green Bay defense that has allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL. In fact, the Packers' injury-depleted secondary has been their biggest problem. Cornerbacks Quinten Rollins and Micah Hyde have combined for just six pass deflections and zero interceptions on the season and they're a big reason the Pack have given up a very generous 38.3 points per game during their four-game losing streak. So yeah, Matthews, Zach Ertz and Darren Sproles are all viable. But it's fair to assume Green-Beckham's ownership percentage will be lower and the price is right ($3,000 on DraftKings, $4,600 on FanDuel).

I'm Out

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
I know. Ryan is on pace for highest passer rating of his career (115.1) and trails only New England's Tom Brady (123.3) in that department. Ryan is also second in league in passing yards with 3,247, just behind New Orleans' Drew Brees with 3,277. And his favorite target, Julio Jones, is the NFL's leader in receiving yards. It's been a great season so far. But Ryan is coming off of his worst game yet, the Week 10 loss in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Arizona's top-ranked defense is allowing a league-low 190.2 passing yards per game and a league-low seven touchdown passes. According to the Sports Xchange, the Cardinals will look to knock Ryan off his mark and force him to use checkdowns frequently. The Cardinals can make that happen by sending edge rushers Chandler Jones and Markus Golden from the outside, defensive tackle Calais Campbell from the inside, and counting on cornerback Patrick Peterson to smother Jones -- although that didn't work out so well in their last meeting when Julio dominated with 10 catches (on 12 targets) for a then career-high 189 yards and a touchdown (unofficially, eight of those for 165 yards came with Peterson in coverage). The bottom line here, however, is the bottom line. Only one QB (Tom Brady) is more expensive than Ryan's $8,700 on FanDuel while five are pricier on DraftKings (Ryan is $6,900).