DFS Three And Out 2021 week 2
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns ($7,800 on DraftKings; $8,400 on FanDuel)
Cleveland returns all five starters from an elite 2020 offensive line, and that unit should have a field day against a Texans front without much firepower. The only saving grave for Houston is that the Browns are coming off last Sunday's game a little bit hobbled. But any concerns there would be more pass protection on the edge than with the run blocking. That being the case, it's worth noting that in 2020, the Texans allowed the second-most big runs (over 15 yards) to running backs. Last year, despite missing four full games with a knee sprain, Chubb had 15 runs of 15-plus yards, second in the NFL to only Derrick Henry (21). Houston also allowed the most yards after contact to running backs. Chubb led the NFL with 4.1 yards after contact per carry in 2020, and he has averaged at least 3.8 yards after contact per carry in all three of his seasons. As ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld points out, this one meets all the criteria of a great play. "The five boxes that I like to check off at running back are as follows," Zeidenfeld wrote. "An expectation of 20-plus touches, inclusion in the passing game, expected inside-the-5 carries, a home game, and having his team favored to win. In Week 2, Chubb checks every single box." Use him as a building block this week.
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,000 on DraftKings; $6,400 on FanDuel)
Atlanta is going to have to pick their poison facing Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Why go with a player in such a diluted group? Well among the three wideouts, Brown is the cheapest. It's fair to wonder then, why he would be the best play. Well. ... Last week, Brown scorched the Cowboys with five catches (on seven targets) for 121 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That was 24.2 yards per catch. Unstainable you say? Well, in addition to leading the Buccaneers in receiving targets over the final five weeks of the 2020 regular season, Brown also produced the highest yards after the catch of any Buccaneers receiver with 5.82. Tampa Bay showcased his versatility, lining him up inside, outside and in the backfield. His ability to change gears and stop and go helped open a new dimension to the Buccaneers' offense, which was primarily a downfield passing attack before Brady's arrival. People also forget too easily, it was just three years ago when Brown was considered one of the best receivers in football. Brown went through some off-the-field struggles before finding his way with Tom Brady and the Bucs in Tampa. And as The Sporting News noted, "The Falcons just made Philly BFFs Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith look like All-Pros, so sign yourself up for the Tom and AB Show." Remember, the Buccaneers have the highest implied team total on the entire slate. Brown's price is suitable for stacking with Brady ($6,900 on DraftKings; $8,200 on FanDuel) -- and you can throw in Gronk ($4,700 on DraftKings; $5,800 on FanDuel) as well.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints ($3,100 on DraftKings; $5,100 on FanDuel)
Dart toss time! While this one seems like it's chasing points, those who follow the team aren't so sure. First, let's acknowledge Johnson played on only 12 snaps and had just three targets. Compare that to 51 snaps and six targets for teammate and fellow tight end Adam Trautman. That said, ESPN.com's Mike Triplett contends his two touchdowns in last week's win over the Packers -- and his 4th-and-7 conversion -- were no fluke. Triplett went on to write what multiple local observers have told me over the last three months: The former wide receiver, who switched positions this offseason, was flashing that same big-play ability all summer long, both in practices and preseason games. Plus, the converted wideout is an enticing red zone target at 6-4, 230 pounds. "He has more home run potential in any given week than Trautman," Triplett added, "which makes him as enticing of a 'lottery ticket option' as any tight end outside of the top 10." I like lottery tickets, especially in my tournament lineups. One note: DraftKings still lists Johnson as a wideout, so between that and his dirt-cheap price, feel free to take advantage of that flexibility if you'd like and by all means, chase those points.
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,400 on DraftKings; $5,500 on FanDuel)
Although he's priced much better on FanDuel than on DraftKings (where he's the 10-highest priced RB on the Sunday slate), I'm still not all that interested in a player who had only five carries in the regular-season opener against Houston. And if those five carries don't scare you off, how about if you compare them to the nine carries Carlos Hyde handled? Even if ESPN.com's Michael DiRocco is correct in his belief that Robinson having only five carries was more a function of early mistakes and the game being out of hand than the team wanting to give Hyde more work, it's still a concern. It's also true that Robinson was targeted six times in the passing game and Hyde only twice. Still, as ESPN's Matthew Berry notes, Jacksonville has one of the lowest implied totals on the Week 2 slate, and last week, no team allowed fewer rushing yards and yards per carry to running backs than Denver's defense.