DFS Three And Out 2018 Week 11

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Dion Lewis, RB, Tennessee Titans ($4,800 on DraftKings; $5,900 on FanDuel)

As the Sports Xchange noted this week, Lewis clearly has become 1A in the Titans backfield, relegating Derrick Henry to 1B in that regard. Lewis brings a hard-running style for such a small back, and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield on screens and checkdowns has made him possibly the Titans' most consistent weapon in the offense with Delanie Walker on injured reserve. Indeed, Lewis is averaging over 20 touches in his last three games, but still comes at a very affordable price. And even if he loses some goal-line work to Henry, CBSSports.com's Mike McClure believes Lewis' versatility means there's plenty of upside and multi-TD potential. This week, he goes up against a Colts defense that's sixth-worst in the league against opposing running back this season, allowing 30 points per game. But as ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld notes, over the past four weeks, that number has ballooned to 33.13 DraftKings points per game. Adding to the fun, Marcus Mariota has been on a roll during the Titans' two-game winning streak, throwing four TDs. Better still, the Titans-Colts tilt has one of the higher totals on the slate at 48.5 points. ... For what it's worth, if I'm paying up for a running back, I'll remind you that Christian McCaffrey scored all the Panthers' touchdowns last week at Pittsburgh. His seven-touchdown total across the past three games marks the most for a player with the team since RB DeAngelo Williams did it 10 years ago. McCaffrey ($8,000 on DraftKings; $8,600 on FanDuel) leads the Panthers in rushing and receiving yards and rarely comes off the field. This week, he'll be going up against a Detroit team that ranks 28th in the NFL in rushing defense.

O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900 on DraftKings; $6,300 on FanDuel)

The Giants defense has struggled against the opposing tight end in their last two games, allowing Jordan Reed of Washington and George Kittle of the 49ers to combine for 16 receptions and 121 yards. Howard's 487 passing yards puts him fourth in the NFL among tight ends, while his five touchdown catches tie him for third (with Trey Burton of the Bears and Zach Ertz of the Eagles). Howard is a big target who is tough to bring down. He's already caught five touchdown passes this season and is averaging 16.8 yards per reception. And yes, he's a little more expensive. But the face he's considerably cheaper than Zach Ertz ($6,600 on DraftKings; $7,600 on FanDuel) and Travis Kelce ($6,500 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel) adds to the appeal. That said, if I'm looking for a crazy touchdown dart, I love the matchup for Lions TE Michael Roberts ($2,500 on DraftKings; $4,500 on FanDuel), who faces a Panthers defense that's the worst team in the league at defending the position, giving up the most TDs to tight ends (8).
The problem is Roberts has yet to practice due to a shoulder injury. But if he's active on Sunday? Yeah, Roberts will find his way into one of my lineups.

Tre'Quan Smith, WR, New Orleans Saints ($4,000 on DraftKings; $4,900 on FanDuel)

Yes. I realize Smith hasn't done a damn thing since his first game without Ted Ginn, a super-efficient Week 5 breakout in which he turned three targets into three-catches for 111-yards and a pair of touchdowns. In the four games since that spike performance against the Redskins, Smith has totaled eight catches for 75 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. That includes whiffing completely -- getting nary a target -- on a day in which the Saints put up 51 points against Cincinnati's NFL-worst passing defense. So could we see a make-up game on Sunday? I mean, there's no doubt Michael Thomas is a great play and he's priced like it ($8,800 on DraftKings; $8,800 on FanDuel). Smith, on the other hand, is dirt cheap and going up against the same Eagles secondary Thomas is, a unit that has been shredded for 266 passing yards per game and just lost top cornerback Ronald Darby (ACL) for the season. As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, this is obviously a major issue when you consider that, even with a healthy cornerback room for much of the season, Philadelphia has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers -- and the fourth-most to perimeter receivers. Here's hoping last week's shutout keeps Smith's ownership low.

I'm Out

Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts ($6,000 on DraftKings; $7,000 on FanDuel)

Mack was phenomenal while racking up a combined 308 yards and four touchdowns in Weeks 7 and 8. He was much less phenomenal against the Jaguars last week, when he was limited to just 38 total yards from scrimmage and just 2.4 yards per carry. So is a rebound coming? Well. ... Not necessarily. Yes, they entered Week 10 allowing the 13th-most rushing yards per game to opposing running back (89.1 yards per game), but they put the clamps on Sony Michel (31 yards on 11 carries) and the Patriots (40 total yards rushing) last Sunday. In addition, as FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere pointed out, not only have they allowed a mundane 3.89 yards per carry (eighth-lowest), they've also held opponents to just three rushing touchdowns (third-fewest), and no receiving touchdowns. Those three rushing touchdowns is the lowest mark in the NFL. In fact, as ESPN's Matthew Berry wrote, "Tennessee has the best red zone defense since the 2008 Steelers." Berry further noted those three rushing touchdowns were scored by Alex Collins, James
Develin and Josh Allen, meaning only once all season has a team's primary rushing threat gotten into the end zone. Oh, and the Titans are allowing 1.19 PPR points per target to running backs (best in the NFL) and Tagliere added no running back has reached 18 PPR points against the Titans and they've played against James White, Michel, and Ezekiel Elliott. So yeah. ... It's gonna be a no from me dawg.