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DFS Three And Out 2016 week 9

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings
I'm not sure Norv Turner's sudden resignation and the subsequent promotion of Pat Shurmur to play caller is going to have a huge impact on anybody in Minnesota. That said, Shurmur was serving as the team's tight ends coach before the change, so that can't hurt Rudolph's chances of continuing to play a significant role in the passing attack. In case you haven't been following along at home, Rudolph ($4,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel) has at least five catches in four of his last five games and has been Minnesota's primary red-zone weapon, drawing seven out of the Vikings 17 throws inside the 20-yard line. He's scored on three of them. And the Lions? They aren't so good at defending the tight end and all. In fact, no team in the league has given up more fantasy points to tight ends this season. And as ESPN.com pointed out, Detroit's defenders have been especially lousy in that regard when in the red zone, allowing a 78 percent catch rate and an NFL-high seven touchdowns to the position in those situations. Is he a bit pricey? Maybe on DraftKings, but that FanDuel price means 17 tight ends will cost you more.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Make no mistake, the Cowboys will lean on Ezekiel Elliott and the run against Cleveland but Prescott, who has thrown nine touchdowns and run for four scores, needs to make plays as well against a Browns pass defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league and has allowed the second-highest quarterback rating. They also give up an average of 277.8 passing yards every week (25th). Thanks to that generosity, the Browns have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Which is interesting in that, as ESPN.com notes, Prescott ranks fifth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks since Week 2 (ahead of Derek Carr, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck). Yet 10 quarterbacks will cost you more on DraftKings than Prescott ($6,100); nine will cost you more on FanDuel (where Prescott runs $7,600). Clearly many of those ahead of him have tougher matchups. Having one of the league's most dangerous downfield weapons, Dez Bryant, back at full speed only adds to the fun.

Brian Quick, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Time for the "contrarian-but-not-crazy" pick of the week. ... Not crazy you ask (incredulously)? A guy with Case Keenum as his triggerman? Hey, don't look now, but Quick has gained 50 yards or more in each of the last five games and is coming off a season-best 92 yards on four receptions in their Week 7 game against the Giants. That gave him 276 receiving yards and three touchdowns from Weeks 3 to 7. Meanwhile, as NFL.com's Matt Harmon put it, "The Panthers bleed big plays to wide receivers," giving up the second-highest yards per target (9.28) to the position. Indeed, Carolina's secondary is one of the NFL's weakest. Harmon went on to point out that Quick has been the downfield threat for the Rams this season, as his 14.1-yard average depth of target leads the Rams top-four receivers and he's averaging nearly 18 yards per catch. So you're worried about Keenum? Not me. Hell, that alone is likely to scare off a fair number of potential investors -- even though Quick's price ($3,400 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel) is less than Brice Butler's and Adam Thielen’s on DraftKings and Bennie Fowler's, Quinton Patton's and Charles Johnson's on FanDuel. That folks, makes Quick a bargain regardless of QB.

I'm Out

Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks rank 25th in rushing efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. As SBNation.com put it, "You can blame Darrell Bevell. You can blame Pete Carroll. You can blame Tom Cable. You can blame the offensive line. You can even blame Russell Wilson. You can blame any and all of those people, but let’s not overlook the guy who is actually carrying the ball on those plays. ..." And that would be Michael, who is getting nothing more than what he’s being given. And not surprisingly, he's suddenly not being given as much. Rookie C.J. Prosise was as involved in last week's game as he's been all season. He played 23 offensive snaps against the Saints compared to 28 for Michael. Prosise ran four times for 23 yards and also was the Seahawks' leading receiver. He caught four balls on four targets for 80 yards, including a 43-yard reception on a double pass. Michael carried 10 times for 40 yards. And it's fair to wonder whether they'll start to lean even more on Prosise. As ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia notes, Michael has run 107 times for 446 yards (4.17 yards per carry) on the season. While the run blocking overall has not been great, Michael has averaged 2.47 yards per carry before contact (19th). After contact, Michael has averaged 1.70 YPC (23rd). This week, Michael's price ranks sixth among all running backs on DraftKings ($6,700) and ninth on FanDuel ($7,500). That's a bit rich for a guy who's become a touchdown-dependent play in an offense that's not hitting on anything close to all cylinders.