DFS Three And Out 2016 week 8

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winston completed 21 of 30 passes for 269 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in last week’s 34-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He will want to keep the momentum going against the Raiders. As the New York Times noted, Oakland has held its last two opposing quarterbacks to one total touchdown, but the Chiefs’ Alex Smith still completed 19 of 22 passes in Week 6, so it’s not as if the Raiders have suddenly figured out how to shut down passing attacks. Overall, the Raiders’ defense ranks 26th in pass DVOA and has allowed a league-worst 302.1 passing yards per game and the fifth-most passing touchdowns (13). In addition, Oakland has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the position over all, including three games of at least 28 fantasy points. With Winston's reasonable price ($5,700 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel), feel free to stack him with your Buccaneer of choice, whether it's the high-end options like Mike Evans ($ on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel) and Jacquizz Rodgers ($ on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel) or more affordable options like Cameron Brate ($3,200 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel), Adam Humphries ($ on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel) or Russell Shepherd ($3,300 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel).

Brock Osweiler, QB, Houston Texans
I often talk about the difference between being contrarian and being crazy. Call this one crazily contrarian in the wake of Monday night's dismal performance in Denver. But as our own John Laub pointed out during his regular Wednesday appearance with the FootballDiehards on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Osweiler might be in line for a bounce-back game this weekend. ... In case you haven't been following along at home, the Lions rank 23rd in passing yards allowed per game (273), 32nd in completion percentage allowed at 74.2 percent; 32nd in opponents QB rating at 117.3, which is over 10 points higher than the 31st place Browns; they have given up 18 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions this season; they have given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks at 23.1 per game. In fact, the Lions pass defense has been so bad, that they’ve allowed a QB rating over 100 to every quarterback they’ve faced this season. If you took the numbers the Lions have allowed and grouped them together as one quarterback, they would rank 2nd in completion percentage (behind Tom Brady), 2nd in QB rating (behind Tom Brady), and first in passing touchdowns. In addition, Osweiler has been better at home than on the road. He has three games with at least 230 yards and two touchdowns this season -- all coming in the friendly confines of his home stadium. The road games where he came up the smallest? At New England, at Minnesota and at Denver. So great matchup. Playing at home. Coming off a horrible performance, which should keep ownership low. And not surprisingly, the price ($5,400 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel) is right. Feel free to stack him with DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel) or (better yet) C.J. Fiedorowicz ($2,800 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel).

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Yeah. I'm cool paying up for the right guy. This week, Jones ($9600 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel), who leads the league with 830 yards receiving, going up against the Packers is it. While the star wideout's 300-yard demolition of the Panthers in Week 4 this season is still fresh in our minds, it's worth remembering he caught 11 passes for 259 yards and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Packers in 2014. The Packers tried man-to-man and double coverage in an attempt to slow him in that one. It worked for most of the first half, but Jones exploded in the second stanza. The Packers had never given up so many receiving yards to one player in one game in their long history even though a hip injury sent Jones to the sidelines midway through the fourth quarter. The problem this year? Green Bay will be without its top three cornerbacks: Sam Shields (concussion, IR), Damarious Randall (groin surgery) and Quinten Rollins (groin) leaving Demetri Goodson, LaDarius Gunther and Micah Hyde as their top three cornerbacks. According to FOXSports.com, Hyde, normally a nickel corner, likely will be pressed into service more than he'd like against Jones and is already busy employing the only defense that might work for the Packers. “The week of (the game),” Hyde said, “every night before you go to bed, you’ve got to pray. Game day, you’ve got to wake up, you’ve got to pray." While I'm not in the business of questioning the power of prayer, I'll still be rolling with Jones at home against a secondary that ranks 26th against No. 1 wideouts.

Note: It's safe to say Devontae Booker ($3,700 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel) will find his way on to more than a few of my lineups this week as well.

I'm Out

Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
As CBSSports.com's Jack Thomason notes, Nelson has scored five touchdowns on the year but he’s failed to look like the player we’ve known in the past. In fact, he's looked like a 31 year old coming off an ACL tear as often as not this season as players like Davante Adams (with five touchdowns in his five and a half games this year) and Ty Montgomery have moved up in the mix alongside Randall Cobb. Last week, Aaron Rodgers shattered Brett Favre's longstanding single-game team record of 36 completions. And with 56 pass attempts, Rodgers came within five of the single-game franchise record 61 of throws which he shares with Favre. Astonishingly, with so much production through the air, Nelson was limited to one catch for nine yards while targeted only four times as the veteran struggled to get open against the Bears. Things won't get any easier going up against Atlanta cornerback Desmond Trufant. If the Packers continue to rely on Rodgers and the short to intermediate passing attack as a replacement for a rushing attack, Nelson will likely continue to lag behind the team's younger wideouts. Considering only 10 receivers on DraftKings and five on FanDuel carry higher prices than Nelson ($7200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel), I'll be laying off in this one.