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DFS Three And Out 2016 week 11

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
How can you roll with a guy who, as FootballDiehards.com's Jen Ryan points out, has only played 30 percent of his team's offensive snaps? How about when that guy runs a 4.25 forty, has more targets over the last three weeks than any other wide receiver in Kansas City and when his 18 receptions over the last three weeks leave him sitting third among all rookies -- behind Michael Thomas and Sterling Shepard -- with 32 catches on the year. Hill leads the Chiefs in touchdowns with four and is second behind only Travis Kelce in catches on his own team. And that's where we are with Hill, who heads into the Sunday's game against the Buccaneers with a very reasonable price tag ($4,500 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel). As for the playing time, ESPN.com's Adam Teicher noted this week that it's been on the rise. The diminutive (5-10, 185-pound) rookie was in for nine offensive plays in the season opener against the San Diego, followed by eight, 11 and 18 in the next three games, respectively, then 21, 33 and finally 38 in last week's game against Carolina. Other than the one-snap drop from Week 1 to Week 2, Hill's playing time has stayed even or increased each week. Hill made the most of his 38 snaps against the Panthers. Alex Smith threw the ball to Hill 13 times, or almost twice as much as any of his teammates. He had 10 catches, or six more than any of the Chiefs' other receivers. He played more snaps the past two weeks because the Chiefs were without veteran receiver Jeremy Maclin, who seems likely to miss another game to his groin injury this week. Oh, and did I mention it's Tampa Bay? While the Chiefs only have 30 plays that gained 20 yards or more this season, the Buccaneers defense has given up 43 plays of that length. Did I also mention that Hill is pretty fast?

Eli Rogers, WR, Pittsburgh
In case you missed it, the Steelers are playing the Browns. The Brown, meanwhile, are not playing any defense. Or at least not so much that you'd notice. That being the case, I'm on board with playing pretty much anybody in a Steelers uniform who has a pulse. From the priciest, Antonio Brown ($9,500 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel) and Le'Veon Bell ($8,800 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel), to the cheapest, Ladarius Green ($2,500 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel). But if my favorite this week is Rogers, who has come on strong the last two weeks. As NFL.com's Matt Harmon notes, Rogers has played 67 and 86 percent of the snaps over that span and boasts 15 targets as a result. He has 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in each of those two games while totaling 12-plus FanDuel points in both of them. But he was trending up before that. As FootballDiehards.com's Armando Marsal pointed out, Rogers has five or more targets in four straight games. More importantly, however, he's played 84 percent of his snaps in the slot on the year. While Cleveland's defense is bad, they're especially weak when it comes to covering receivers working out of the slot (with Philadelphia's Jordan Matthews, Miami's Jarvis Landry and the Cowboys Cole Beasley all coming up big against them) this season. Look, if I knew Green's workload was going to increase dramatically, he'd be the guy I'm rolling with -- and I suspect I will in a lineup or two given his price. But the cost is right for Rogers ($4,300 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel) as well and he appears to have emerged as the No. 2 receiver Brown insists he's needed to take some pressure off him.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins
The Redskins should be able to take advantage of a Green Bay secondary that is getting routinely torched. Starting cornerback Damarious Randall (groin) didn't play last week and didn't practice on Wednesday. The Packers gave up four touchdown passes to the Titans last week in a 47-25 loss. It's become the norm. As ESPN.com pointed out, the Packers have given up eight touchdown passes and 288 yards per game in their past three outings. They rank 24th in points allowed per game on the season. Meanwhile, Washington could get DeSean Jackson (shoulder) back. But even if the Redskins don't, they showed an ability to stretch the field using tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis last week against Minnesota. Indeed, Cousins ($5,800 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel) hardly missed a beat with 262 yards passing, two touchdowns and no interception. In fact, Cousins is coming off of two of his better performances of the season -- a combined 720 yards and four touchdowns. Beyond that, Cousins has four straight games with multiple TDs. If you're looking to leverage this one even further, feel free to roll with Jamison Crowder (I know I will at $5,400 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel), Reed ($5,900 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel) or Davis (more of a flier, but still viable at $2,800 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel).

I'm Out

Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins
Remember last year, when the Dolphins struggled to mount a rushing attack and they used their short and intermediate passing attack to matriculate the ol' ball down the field? Those were the days. Landry was pretty much a weekly staple in my lineups -- especially on DraftKings. But as Jay Ajayi has taken advantage of a recent surge in offensive line play, the rushing attack has taken over as the rushing attack. Dammit. And with Ajayi's rise, Landry's numbers have diminished. During the team's recent four-game winning streak, he's averaging 63.8 yards on 5.3 catches, down from 80.6 on 6.8 in the first five games. His targets have dropped from 9.6 to 7.3 as well. Meanwhile, as ESPN.com's Matthew Berry pointed out, the Rams are the No. 1 pass defense and the No. 1 scoring defense over the past month. Worse still for Landry, they are the anti-Browns when it comes to defending receivers working out of the slot, where Landry plays. The Rams have given up just 16 catches and fewer than 45 yards a game to the slot in the past month, with zero scores. That’s not good for a wideout who only has one touchdown in his last 14 games and who will be once again playing with a sore shoulder. Only 15 receivers are more expensive on FanDuel and only 16 will cost you more on DraftKings than Landry ($6,600 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel).