DFS GPP STACKS WEEK 5 2021

DFS WEEK 5 GPP STACKS

Last week the Mahomes/Hill portion paid off while Kelce dudded, and we had some fireworks out of the Giants (heck yeah). This week a lot of top QBs are off the main slate, and there are far less games with O/Us over 50, so let’s see what we can come up with. Be sure to check out www.footballdiehards.com for all the top content from our team, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

 

NEW YORK GIANTS AT DALLAS COWBOYS

GIANTS PASSING GAME
This NFC East clash brings us a slate high O/U of 52 points and two offenses that look to be putting it together. Daniel Jones is the current QB6 in fantasy and is one of only two QBs with a passer rating of 90 or better over the last five games (Kyler being the other). He is once again leading the league in deep ball accuracy after being second in that regard a year ago. Dallas has allowed the second most FPPG to opposing QBs, and Daniel has rushing upside as well. Who you pair him with is going to depend on injury situations, but if it’s as condensed as it was last week all will be in play against the a Dallas secondary that has allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing WRs. Kenny Golladay flashed the type of player the Giants thought they were getting in the offseason and I suspect he won’t be under $6000 much longer as the offense improves. Kadarius Toney had nine targets out of the slot and led all WRs in broken tackles in week four. He’s a high upside 4k play. If Sterling Shepard comes back, he’s also too cheap at $5300. Evan Engram is averaging under 40 YPG since Jason Garrett took over as OC, but he’s $3200, got six targets, and is an almost free complement to the stack. Dallas has allowed the sixth most FPPG to TEs.

COWBOYS PASSING GAME
There’s been a pretty drastic shift in scheme as the Cowboys have completely committed to the run over the past two games, but this game has shootout all over it and Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb are simply too cheap at $6100 and $6200. Cooper is more likely to get the Bradberry treatment, so if double-stacking with only one of them and a TE, I’d prefer Lamb of the two. Speaking of the TEs, the Giants have allowed a TD to one every single week, and these aren’t household names they’re giving them up to. Dalton Schultz has 12 catches and three TDs over the past two weeks, and would seem to be in a smash spot with no Blake Martinez for the Giants. He can replace either WR as part of double stacks. Blake Jarwin is a deep sleeper GPP play in MME even though he’s ceded a lot of snap share to Schultz. Jarwin is still leading the two in aDOT by a wide margin.

BARKLEY AND ZEKE
Both seem to be over any early season concerns and are playing true workhorse roles, each with over 85% of snaps, and all the red zone carries (except for one ridiculous one to Evan Engram) for their respective teams. The Giants in particular have allowed the fifth most FPPG to opposing RBs and the loss of Blake Martinez affects the running game even more. Either RB is an elite bringback to passing stacks, and another way to gain some leverage on the field is simply running those two backs against each other and fading the passing game.


STACK IDEAS
Jones/Golladay/Toney w/ any Dallas WR
Jones/Golladay/Engram w/ any Dallas WR
Jones/Golladay/Toney w/ Zeke

Dak/Amari/Ceedee w/ any Giants WR
Dak/Schultz/Ceedee w/ any Giants WR
Dak/Amari/Ceedee w/ Barkley

Barkley/Zeke

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

PACKERS

This game has some big time shootout appeal as the Bengals are approaching a similar pace as the one they played at last year, and Green Bay has a wonderfully condensed offense to make stacking this game very streamlined. Cincinnati has actually been strong against QBs/WRs so far, but none of the caliber of Rodgers/Adams. The latter already has 45 targets through four weeks (an unreal 38% target share), and Rodgers is once again a top-12 QB. With MVS sidelined again, Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan see exponential boosts to their target and snap shares. Both can be used in stacks in this game.

As far as Aaron Jones goes, I wouldn’t worry too much about AJ Dillon’s high touch count in week four. That came in garbage time at the expense of the rapidly fading Steelers team, and Jones remains the overall RB4 for PPR formats and still logged a 63% snap share despite running on a bum ankle. The Bengals have allowed the tenth most FPPG to opposing RBs, and this neutral game script suits Jones well in the PPR format.


BENGALS

I am all over the Bengals passing game in this one with Jaire Alexander and Kevin King both looking likely to miss this one. Joe Burrow is third in the NFL in YPA and sixth in passer rating, and Tee Higgins looks likely to return in this one. Couple that with Joe Mixon’s injury status, and Cincy could be going pass, pass, pass in this one. Green Bay has struggled in the slot all year, so target-leading Tyler Boyd looks like a strong play once again, and JaMarr Chase’s 14.8 aDOT is top ten in the NFL. Without Jaire, he shouldn’t see any resistance in this one. Tee Higgins returning puts him squarely in the mix, but he’s third on the priority list for me. Don’t chase points from CJ Uzomah’s outlier game last week.

Joe Mixon’s health is holding over us here. If Mixon plays, he’s a solid value for GPPs at $6200 as he’s already banked 83 carries through the first four weeks. The matchup is neutral, but that volume makes his price tag too cheap. If Mixon sits, I’m not interested in Samaje Perine or Chris Evans in a running game that has been largely inefficient thus far, and Cincinnati has really upped their passing % lately.


STACK IDEAS
Rodgers/Adams/Cobb or Tonyan w/ any CIN WR
Rodgers/Adams/Jones w/ any CIN WR
Rodgers/Adams/Cobb or Tonyan w/ Mixon

Burrow/2-3 WRs w/ Adams
Burrow/2-3 WRs w/ Jones

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

49ERS

This one’s the sneak I think. The 49ers’ usual run-happy ways are not generally synonymous with tournament stacking, but if Trey Lance is at the helm we could see some fireworks. Lance burst onto the scene last week with an incredible 20.4 DK points in just a half of play last week, and the fast-paced Cardinals have allowed the 12th most FPPG to QBs along with the seventh most QB rushing yards. There’s always the chance that Deebo Samuel’s magical season gets derailed a bit with a QB change, but that didn’t seem to be the way when Lance took over, as Deebo went 4-107-2 when Lance took over last game. Fire him up as a WR1 no matter who the QB is. George Kittle has a tough matchup for his position (Arizona third fewest FPPG allowed to TEs), but he has 20 targets over the last two weeks and his price has dropped to $5600. Brandon Aiyuk is the epitome of boom/bust, but his price has dropped to $4500 which makes him a high upside MME play

I wish the RB situation was more clear for SF, because the Cardinals have allowed 5.3 YPC to start the season and SF is a running team first. Elijah Mitchell’s likely return will muddy the waters a bit too much, but both he and Sermon can be played in MME as a bringback if both are active. If Mitchell misses again, fire up Sermon in all formats.

CARDINALS

The Cardinals’ fast pace and potent offense screams “stack”, but the problem is that they’re so deep with pass catching options now that it’s almost impossible to project the top asset. DeAndre Hopkins would seem to be the one, but Hopkins’ 2021 target share is over 10% lower than his 2020 totals. To date, the Cards’ target totals are as follows:

Hopkins - 26
AJ Green - 24
Edmonds - 22
Kirk - 18
Rondale - 18
Maxx Williams - 16

Based on snap share, Rondale and Maxx can be eliminated from the conversation, so we’re looking for some combination of the top three WRs and Edmonds. Any can be used, and if you want to get REALLY cute you can run Kyler “naked” (no WRs) if he turns on one of his big rushing games which we haven’t seen yet while spreading the ball evenly among his WRs. San Francisco has allowed the fifth most QB rushing yards, so that boosts the upside for a pure rushing day from Kyler.


STACK IDEAS
Lance/Deebo/Kittle w/ any Cardinals WR
Lance/Deebo/Kittle w/ Edmonds
Lance/Deebo/Aiyuk w/ any Cardinal

Kyler/Hopkins/Kirk w/ Deebo or Kittle
Kyler/Hopkins/Green w/ Deebo or Kittle
Kyler/Hopkins/Green or Kirk w/ Mitchell or Sermon
Kyler “naked” w/ Deebo/Kittle