DFS Three And Out 2020 week 3
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,500 on DraftKings; $6,500 on FanDuel)
Metcalf's second NFL season is off to a hot start. Fantasy's No. 7-scoring wide receiver has posted receiving lines of 4-95-1 and 4-92-1 while playing all but one of the team's offensive snaps. Of great interest here is his vertical role. According to ESPN's Mike Clay, Metcalf's 14.8-yard average depth of target ranks seventh among wide receivers targeted more than 10 times this season in Seattle's high-scoring and suddenly pass-heavy offense. Adding to the positive vibe here, the Cowboys defense has been decimated by injuries and disappointing play so far this season, and that especially applies to its attempt to cover opposing wide receivers. How bad has it been? As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, a league-high three touchdowns to perimeter receivers this season, and they've also allowed a receiver to go over 100 yards in each game so far. Their challenge in stopping Metcalf won't be any easier with starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie out this week with a hamstring injury. Also worth noting: Metcalf's quarterback, Russell Wilson, is very good. And on a hot streak.
Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,000 on DraftKings; $5,900 on FanDuel)
As ESPN.com suggested, Austin Ekeler might be the lead back in Los Angeles, but it's become evident that Kelley won't be too far behind in usage. Or, as was the case against the Chiefs last Sunday, ahead in usage. Kelley (41 snaps) was three behind Ekeler (44) in playing time but handled 23 carries and three targets (113 total yards). That's compared to 16 carries and four targets for Ekeler (148 yards). Kelley, who ranks sixth in the NFL with 35 carries, isn't worth playing ahead of Ekeler in season-long or even in cash games. But in tournament play? His price and this matchup make it hard for me to pass. As FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere reminds us, the Panthers have now allowed 33 rushing touchdowns to running backs over their last 18 games, while no other team in the league has allowed more than 19 in that span. And while the Falcons have allowed one more TD (7) to the position this season, Carolina has given up the most touchdown runs. Kelley, meanwhile, has eight carries inside the red zone and his ownership percentages are fairly low this week.
Drew Sample, TE, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,500 on DraftKings; $4,800 on FanDuel)
Tight end C.J. Uzomah is out for the season after tearing his right Achilles tendon during Thursday's loss to the Browns. Before the injury, Uzomah was one of Joe Burrow's most effective receivers. The tight end had four catches on six targets for 42 yards and one touchdown -- Burrow's first passing touchdown in the NFL. Then Uzomah went down with a torn Achilles. Sample went on to catch 7-of-9 targets for 45 yards against the Browns. Six of his nine targets came after Uzomah was hurt. Sample matched Tyler Boyd for the team high in catches. Meanwhile, as ESPN.com's Ben Baby notes, the Bengals are using their tight ends at one of the highest rates in the league. Through two weeks, Cincinnati is tied for third with 10.5 targets per game, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Then there's the matchup. ... The Eagles have been very generous to tight ends so far this season. In Week 1, Logan Thomas caught four passes for 37 yards and a touchdown. Last weekend, Tyler Higbee pulled in three touchdown passes. As Tagliere notes, every passing touchdown the Eagles have allowed this year has gone to a tight end and no defense has given up more to the position.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,000 on DraftKings; $5,900 on FanDuel)
I get it. The price isn't horrible. The volume is super-appealing. He played 66 percent of the team's snaps in Week 1 and got nine targets. Against the Browns in Week 2, Green played 61 percent of the snaps and was targeted 13 times. He's the guy Burrow wants to hook up with more than any other. And trust me, as heavily-invested as I am in Green in season-long formats (it was that sixth-round price tag; I found it irresistible), I want it to happen. But I'm not sure this is the week to expect things to go Green's way. I'm not sure Green expects it go Green's way this week. After sitting out all last season with an ankle injury and most of this year's training camp with a hamstring issue, Green said Thursday that he's still working to get back into optimal playing condition. He's also still getting used to playing in head coach Zac Taylor's system after being limited to an observer's role last year. "I'm still rusty. I'm still learning this system," Green said. It shows. Green has caught 36.4 percent of his targets through two games, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Before this season, Green had a 59.6 percent career catch rate in eight seasons. So yes, he will learn this system. Yes, he will get on the same page with Burrow. But this Sunday, while Sample is making hay with this matchup against the Eagles, Green will be shadowed by Philly shutdown corner Darius Slay, who, as Berry pointed out, just held Rams wide receiver Robert Woods to two catches for 14 yards on 16 perimeter routes last week. So for now, I will patiently await the day Green hits stride and I'll start purchasing DFS shares when I see some evidence he's getting close.