DFS Three And Out 2020 week 12
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so let’s do a main dish with a suitable side!
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders ($5,700 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel)
This is easily my favorite play this week. Carr, who passed for a career-high 4,054 yards in 2019, has thrown for 2,431 yards this year and is on pace to have a shot at his third 4,000-yard season in four years with a slight uptick in production over the final six games. He's delivered multiple touchdowns in all but three of his starts this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have yielded more than 300 yards and two passing touchdowns per game, and no team in the NFL gives up more fantasy points per game. According to ESPN's Matthew Berry, more than 73 percent of the yards gained against the Falcons this season have come via the pass (that's the fourth-highest rate in the league), and with the highest over/under on the board (55.5), Carr becomes increasingly appealing given his price. As ESPN.com's Jim McCormick put it, "Having produced strong lines against the likes of respectable defenses such as Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and twice against Kansas City, it's well within the spectrum of outcomes for Carr to produce yet another big passing line against a Falcons defense yielding the most fantasy points per game to signal-callers this season. ..." Side Dish: According to ESPN.com's Al Zeidenfeld, Atlanta is allowing opponents to complete 83.8 percent of passes that target the tight end, which is the highest rate in the league and 3.4 percent higher than any team has allowed over the past 15 seasons. So Darren Waller ($6,000 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel) would be a fine stack. Waller has a touchdown in four of his past six games. Nelson Agholor ($4,900 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel) has fast become a downfield threat for Carr with 448 yards and six touchdowns so far the season -- including five scores in the last seven games.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($7,600 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel)
Last year, the Bills were winning games due to their defense as they were one of the best groups in the NFL. This usually meant close, low scoring games that Allen would make plays late that would help secure the victory. This year has been almost the complete opposite. Through the first 10 games, the Bills are allowing 26.5 points per game which is an increase of nearly eight points from last year's average of 18.7. The3 good news? The offense is averaging 27.2 points per game, which ranks 11th in the NFL and the increase in scoring is due in large part to the development of Allen and the passing attack. The Bills currently ranked fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game (278.9 yards). This week, he faces a Los Angeles Chargers defense that is bottom-seven in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs and gives up passing touchdowns at the sixth-highest rate. In fact, as Zeidenfeld notes, the Chargers allow a touchdown on 5.7 percent of opponent passes, and Allen has either a 15-yard rush or a rushing touchdown in four straight games. Berry is on board as well, noting the Chargers are also bottom-12 against the run the past four weeks and Allen has at least seven rushing attempts in five straight and leads the team in red zone and goal-to-go rushes. Yes, Allen is pricey. But as Zeidenfeld suggested, "It's a good chance to pay up to be contrarian. ..." Side Dish: I wouldn't talk anybody out of pairing Allen up with Stephon Diggs ($7,600 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel). It's expensive. But it's doable. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, Diggs' massive 29 percent target share in Buffalo's pass-heavy scheme has led him to 10.3 targets per game. That includes at least six targets in all 10 games and at least 11 in five games. He also has a high floor, with at least 15 fantasy points in 90 percent of his outings.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants ($5,500 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel)
In case you haven't been paying attention, Jones has multiple passing touchdowns or at least 60 yards rushing in four of his past five games. He has a total of six scoring strikes and one rushing TD over that span. Yes. Seven touchdowns over the past five weeks. Against the Eagles in New York's Week 10 win, he led the Giants with 64 rushing yards on nine carries. It was the sixth time this season Jones was the Giants' leading rusher (including a 92-yard rushing day against the Eagles in Week 7 and a 74-yard outing on the ground against Washington in Week 6). He joins reigning NFL most valuable player Lamar Jackson of Baltimore as the only quarterbacks to lead their teams in rushing six times this season. Also, as Berry notes, Jones comes off the bye to face a Cincinnati defense that allows a touchdown at the second-highest rate in the NFL. ... Side Dish: Sterling Shepard ($5,100 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel) would be just fine here. According to Clay, if we exclude a Week 2 game earlier this season in which he left injured after seeing four targets on 15 snaps, Shepard has been targeted at least six times in 21 consecutive games. Seriously. New York's top wide receiver is averaging 8.0 targets per game (23 percent team share) during the stretch. That includes 7.6 per game (23 percent share) in 2020. According to Zeidenfeld, Cincinnati is allowing the fourth-most yards after the catch to the slot this season (5.1). Shepard has been efficient in the slot (though he's used there less than previously) with 10 catches on 12 targets and a TD.
Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints ($6,200 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel)
Hill made his first start at quarterback against the Falcons last Sunday. He completed 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards and rushed 10 times for 49 yards and two touchdowns. But ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft points out that Hill didn't exactly capitalize on the Falcons' weak secondary, averaging just 6.6 yards on his throws and making a few erratic ones before padding his fantasy stats with the two rushing touchdowns. Hill's rushing performance will make him a popular fantasy option for as long as he's the starter here, but what if he doesn't score on the ground? Can his upside as a passer carry the day? One problem this week is a matchup against Denver that doesn't offer close to the passing upside the Falcons matchup did, as the Falcons have allowed 0.55 fantasy points per pass attempt (second most), while the Broncos have allowed 0.40 (11th fewest). Again, he didn't exactly light the Falcons up through the air. Until he proves he can do more as a passer, I'm passing on Hill. ... Side Dishes: I'll pass there too. I mean, Michael Thomas fared reasonably well against Atlanta last week, but the guy I'd rather play, Alvin Kamara, didn't get his usual ration of targets. And that should leave a bad taste in everybody's mouth.