DFS Three And Out 2019 week 8
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Gather round y'all! It's a "Reasonably-Priced Wide Receiver-Palooza Edition" of the Three And Out!
Kenny Stills, WR, Houston Texans
Last Sunday, Will Fuller left last Sunday's loss to the Colts with a hamstring injury on the Texans' first drive. Stills jumped in and finished the game with four catches for 105 yards. Fuller will miss multiple weeks and Stills' workload will increase accordingly. Beyond the bump in playing time (and likely opportunities) -- Stills was on the field for 95 percent of Houston's snaps on Sunday (with Keke Coutee seeing only 70 percent), it's worth noting that Stills trails only Fuller among all Texans receivers in air yards per target. Stills' average target has traveled 13.6 yards this season, while Keke Coutee's average target has traveled 7.4 yards. As ESPN.com's Jim McCormick suggests, afforded such valuable vertical work in the Fuller role could propel Stills to a strong showing against a Raiders secondary yielding 41.3 fantasy points per game to receiving corps (fifth most) and 15.9 yards per catch to wideouts, the most among AFC teams. Remember, Marquez Valdes-Scantling averaged 66.5 yards per catch (on two grabs) against the Raiders last Sunday. We're talking big-play potential at a very reasonable price ($5,700 on FanDuel; $4,700 on DraftKings).
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes, the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill appears to be a positive for Davis (not to mention A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries). Against a tough Chargers secondary, Davis excelled with Tannehill as his triggerman. Davis enjoyed season highs in Week 7 with seven targets and six catches (he racked up 80 yards) while also seeing his first red zone target of 2019, which he converted into a touchdown. As FantasyPro's Mike Tagliere notes, it was Davis' second top-10 performance of the year and now he gets to play a Bucs defense that has allowed 44.1 PPR points per game to wide receivers, which is the second-most in the league. While I'm not against rolling out Brown or even Humphries in this matchup, I'm going to hope that Tannehill continues to treat his No. 1 receiver as that. In addition, as Cockroft added, Davis ($5,500 on FanDuel; $4,400 on DraftKings) stands out over the other two because of his tendency to shift across the formation, spreading out his individual CB matchups.
DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Denver Broncos
Make no mistake: Denver's offense isn't great and Courtland Sutton is the clear-cut WR1 here. In fact, even before the Emmanuel Sanders trade, Sutton has had had six-plus targets in every game this season as well as the team-lead in red-zone targets. Hamilton, however, gets a massive bump in both snaps and usage with Sanders gone. As ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld notes, in Denver's last four games in 2018 when Sanders was sidelined by injury, Hamilton averaged six-plus catches on 9.5 targets per game. And this week, the price is more than reasonable ($4,800 on FanDuel; $3,300 on DraftKings).
D.J. Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
It's true, Chark is the staple of the Jags' No. 14 passing attack, leading the team with 33 receptions, 581 receiving yards, which ranks No. 4 in the NFL, and five touchdowns while averaging 17.6 yards per catch. But after a hot start in the first five games this season, the 2018 second-round pick has slowed down a little bit and totaled six catches for 96 yards and no touchdowns in Weeks 6-7. One game was against Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore, which is a very tough matchup. But there was no Lattimore in the Bengals secondary last week, and Chark drew just four targets. So how do we account for the shortfall? As Tagliere pointed out, after starting the year so strong, rookie QB Gardner Minshew has looked mediocre the last two weeks, completing just 29-of-61 passes (47.5 percent) for 418 yards (6.85 yards per attempt) with one touchdown and one interception. In addition, Chark's success has led opposing defenses to cover him more closely. "In the last two games, teams have doubled him with a safety single-high," Jaguars.com's John Oehser wrote. While the individual matchup against Tremaine Johnson is winnable, Tagliere pointed out the Jets haven't been the best of matchups for fantasy receivers in general. There have been just four receivers who finished as top-20 options against them, and all those receivers caught a touchdown. So basically, I'm betting against Chark ($6,300 on FanDuel; $6,000 on DraftKings), playing with a semi-slumping rookie QB in a run-first, run-heavy offense, scoring a touchdown.