DFS Three And Out 2016 week 5

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
Carr would have been interesting even before the Chargers lost their top cornerback, Jason Verrett, to an ACL injury this week. Heck, as ESPN.com noted this week, even with Verrett San Diego had given up at least 300 yards or multiple scores in every game this season. Remember, cornerback Brandon Flowers has been out because of a concussion and it's unlikely he'll be up to four full quarters if fit on Sunday. Previously Jahleel Addae was lost because of a broken clavicle. So asking the likes of Craig Mager and Pierre Desir to keep up might be much as Carr and the Raider passing attack are playing lights out football. In addition to the suddenly remarkable connection with Michael Crabtree (the two hooked up for three touchdowns against the Ravens last week), Carr and the Oakland offense have been money when it counts the most this year. Through four games, the Raiders have penetrated the red zone 11 times and have scored 10 touchdowns, a percentage of 90.9 that leads the NFL. Better still, Carr has thrown seven of his nine touchdown passes on red-zone throws (their other three scores have come on short runs). And while it's true Carr has played it safe for the most part, but he'll continue to look for Amari Cooper deep, as he's missed two opportunities for big-yardage touchdowns in recent weeks. An injury to Latavius Murray could mean a two-pronged attack with 5-8 runners DeAndre Washington, who could add to the passing attack, and Jalen Richard. In addition, as ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out this week, Carr has four games in the past calendar year with at least three TD passes and no INTs (Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton have combined for four such games). Bottom line? Carr's nine TD tosses are fourth-best in the NFL. His current price ($6,800 on DraftKings; $8,100 on FanDuel) ranks outside the top five on both major sites.

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Still wondering if Wentz is the real deal or a rookie flash in the pan? Stop it. Through three games, he has a 103.7 passer rating, a 64.7 completion percentage and hasn't thrown an interception in 102 attempts. Wentz is first player in NFL history with at least 100 pass attempts, 60 completions, five TDs and zero INTs in his first three games. He has shown extraordinary poise and excellent decision-making. In addition, Wentz will be coming back from the bye with reinforcements. TE Zach Ertz, who had six catches for 58 yards before he was hurt in Week 1, will re-join the fray as Wentz and company take on the worst pass defense in the league. The Lions have a 120.2 opponent passer rating and already have given up 12 touchdown passes in their first four games. The Lions have also given up the most touchdowns to tight ends (6) this season. Pricing for Wentz ($6,400 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel) is friendly enough -- especially given the matchup and the upside is obvious. By the way, stacking with Ertz ($3,500 on DraftKings; $5,600 on FanDuel) might not be the worst idea ever.

Brian Hoyer, QB, Chicago Bears
Hoyer threw for 302 yards on 28 of 36 with two touchdowns and no interceptions in last Sunday's victory over the Lions with three different receivers catching four or more passes. He has yet to throw an interception in three appearances this season, and is 67 of 97 with a passer rating of 103.3 heading into Sunday's game in Indianapolis. In fact, as Berry pointed out this week, Hoyer is the fourth-best fantasy QB the past two weeks, has the third-most completions in that time frame and gets a Colts team that's spent a lot of time traveling (to and from London) in the last week -- and that's working with a battered secondary that's given up the 11th most passing yards in the league (1,139). The matchup and price ($5,500 on DraftKings; $6,000 on FanDuel) are right. It would be nice if Hoyer has his full complement of receiving threats (Alshon Jeffery is nursing a sore knee; Eddie Royal has a tender calf; Zach Miller has injured ribs; and Kevin White was placed on IR with a high-ankle sprain and fractured fibula). Still, assuming Jeffery, Royal and Miller are good to go, Hoyer is going to be in more than a few of my lineups.

I'm Out

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Yes, again. Apparently, I’m a glutton for punishment. Even though Ryan completely dominated Carolina's defense in Week 4 and is now the only quarterback to post a top-10 fantasy finish each of the first four weeks of the season, I’m still backing off. Despite his array of high-end weaponry -- led by Julio Jones (whose 300-yard effort against the Panthers helped Ryan to a 500-yard passing day) – and the fact he’s spreading the ball around to all of them quite effectively. But as ESPN’s Mike Clay pointed out, Ryan's current completion percentage is 72 percent is well above his previous career high (69 percent); his current 10.5 yards per attempt is well above his previous high (7.9), his receivers are dropping passes at a rate of 0.7 percent (compared to previous career-low of 3.3 percent) while they have generated 7.4 yards after the catch compared to a previous best of 5.0 yards per, all of which prompts Clay to question whether his current production is sustainable. But the question that looms even larger is Denver's defense. The Broncos have only allowed two passing TDs this season and have given up a high of 206 passing yards in four games. I'll also note that Ryan isn't at his best under pressure so the fact the Broncos have a league-high 15 sacks isn't a plus (the Falcons have surrendered nine sacks this year). Price ($7,100 on DraftKings; $7,700 on FanDuel) and matchup will keep Ryan out of my tournament lineups this week.