Hunter Report Week 6 2017

By Dave Hunter

I finally had a decent week in DFS play, or one that I consider solid enough to talk about here. Look at the lineup below that snagged me 2,497th place out of 634,165 entrants in the DraftKings NFL $1.6M Play-Action [$100K to 1st], for a $30 win with a $3 entry. Winning 10 times your entry fee is always nice, eh? In fact, I entered four separate lineups in Week 5, with varying players, and cashed all four of them in the same contest.

QB- Aaron Rodgers, GB $8,100 (18.60%) – 24.04
RB- Melvin Gordon, LAC $6,000 (13.20%) – 37.30
RB- LeSean McCoy, BUF $7,800 (6.20%) – 14.90
WR- Michael Crabtree, OAK $6,400 (1.60%) – 20.20
WR- T.Y. Hilton, IND $6,000 (29.50%) – 27.70
WR- Mike Wallace, BAL $4,000 (1.80%) – 19.30
TE- Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ $3,500 (23.40%) – 14.90
FLEX – Duke Johnson, Jr., CLE $4,900 (18.70%) – 17.30
DST – Lions, $3,200 (8.80%) – 3.00

Total – 178.64
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There was plenty of value to be had in Week 5, but I have to say that my WR choices were top notch. Crabtree and Wallace were under 2% owned. Just think if I had slotted the Jaguars DST into my lineup instead of the Lions.

I was pretty pathetic at suggesting quarterback advice last week overall, although my RB and WR suggestions did save the day, assuming of course you didn’t start Big Ben Roethlisberger in lineups! Ugh.

Let’s head into this week’s suggestions, shall we?

Week 6:

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Tom Brady, NE @ New York Jets ($8,300) – I think Brady is going to be pretty chalky this week facing the Jets so he’s more of a cash play for me than anything. Don’t be surprised to see his ownership percentage above 20%, even at the $8.1K price tag. Still, Brady is a darn safe option when building cash lineups. This is assuming that you’re okay spending up at QB of course. Keep in mind there are some pretty good options at QB this week around the $7K range, so you don’t have to spend up here.

Other choices: Drew Brees, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($7,200); Matt Ryan, ATL vs. Miami Dolphins ($7,000)

Mid-Range

Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. Cleveland Browns ($6,800) – Should you keep riding the Watson train? I would say he’s “due” for a letdown game, but I really hate when analysts say a player is due. Watson is at a decent price playing a hapless Browns team. I’m expecting at least 20 fantasy points in this one, and I’m even considering avoiding the above QBs and going with Watson. The only thing that’s holding me back is his projected ownership percentage in tournament play. In cash play Watson is a boom option.

Other choices: Kirk Cousins, WAS vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,800); Philip Rivers @ Oakland Raiders ($6,600); Matthew Stafford, DET @ New Orleans ($6,500); Carson Palmer, ARI vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,100)

Value

Case Keenum, MIN vs. Green Bay Packers ($5,000) – Keenum is a tournament play only. I’m taking the chance that I’ll see a back-and-forth game without much defense, and I really believe Keenum will get the ball to Stefon Diggs. I know Diggs is dealing with a groin injury but he’ll be ready to go this week facing the Packers. Don’t be surprised if Keenum hooks up with Diggs for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Other choices: Derek Carr, OAK vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($5,900); Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @ Kansas City Chiefs ($5,700) – I know this seems like a weird suggestion. Still, Big Ben is not going to be as bad as he was in Week 5 and he has incredible weapons at his disposal. Remember, no cash game lineups with Big Ben, only tournament play.

Over-Value

Alex Smith, KC vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,400) – Why spend $6.4K on Smith when you can get Watson, Cousins or Stafford in your lineups for a similar price tag? I mean, I guess if you’re looking for the low ownership percentage then Smith would be an interesting play. I just can’t bring myself to roster him at this price, unless I put together an “opposite” lineup. Ha.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

Todd Gurley, LAR @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,700) – Gurley had his worst game of the season last week, and I’m extremely glad I avoided him in lineups. I even suggested that Gurley was an over-value option in my last write-up, so hopefully you passed on him as well. This week, however, is an excellent opportunity to roster Gurley at a sub-$8K price tag. If the Rams are going to succeed, Gurley must be on top of his game. The Jaguars defense is susceptible to the run, allowing 146 yards per game and 5 total TDs this season. That’s a huge opportunity for Gurley – Chaching!

Other choices: Kareem Hunt, KC vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,200); Leonard Fournette, JAC vs. Los Angeles Rams ($8,000)

Mid-Range

Jay Ajayi, MIA @ Atlanta Falcons ($5,700) – There’s no denying that Ajayi has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year at RB; however, he has the talent and skill set to start revving things up, even in the Dolphins weak offense. The matchup is solid facing the Falcons and assuming the Dolphins give Ajayi enough carries, which they will (25 last week), I expect to see his first TD with 100-plus yards.

Other choices: Aaron Jones, GB @ Minnesota Vikings ($5,600); Mike Gillislee, NE @ New York Jets ($5,500); Lamar Miller, HOU vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,400); Tarik Cohen, CHI @ Baltimore Ravens ($5,100)

Value

Adrian Peterson, ARI vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,400) – If you want a dart to throw at RB or the Flex position this week, here you go. I’m not sure how much playing time Peterson will get since he was only just traded a few days ago; however, AP intrigues me. The Bucs are pretty tough against the run to this point, so there’s a matchup issue to consider too. I’m going to take a stab at AP in one lineup, assuming there’s a positive report of him netting a good amount of touches in Week 6. Remember, AP is a tournament play only.

Other choices: Alvin Kamara, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($4,500), Samaje Perine, WAS vs. San Francisco 49ers ($4,400); Jerick McKinnon, MIN vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,100)

Over-Value

Le’Veon Bell, PIT @ Kansas City Chiefs ($9,600) – If you want to spend almost $10K on Bell, go right ahead. What about me? Nah, there are too many RBs at better prices that I expect to outplay Bell. Sure, Bell can go off any given week, so there’s always that, but in order to earn this price tag Bell has to part the Red Sea. And, it ain’t gonna happen.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Antonio Brown, PIT @ Kansas City Chiefs ($9,300) – The price is a bit steep, although in the right lineup Brown is a good start this week. I like Roethlisberger to get back on track and to use Brown to his advantage. We should see Brown used plenty in underneath routes, using his speed and maneuverability to pump up the yards after the catch. Expect a 100-plus yard game with at least one TD from Brown.

Other choices: DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. Cleveland Browns ($8,100); Julio Jones, ATL vs. Miami Dolphins ($8,300)

Mid-Range

Michael Thomas, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($7,300) – I like Thomas coming off the Saints bye week, and love the potential for a big game facing the Lions. Thomas is averaging just a smidge above 9 targets a game, and even with Willie Snead expected back this week we should see Thomas get plenty of looks. Thomas is a nice tournament and cash play this week and I’m not expecting his ownership to be too high. I consider Thomas a value this week as well, so don’t be afraid to roster him.

Other choices: Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. Green Bay Packers ($7,500); Golden Tate, DET @ New Orleans Saints ($6,800); Larry Fitzgerald, ARI vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,800); Jarvis Landry, MIA @ Atlanta Falcons ($6,600)

Value

DeSean Jackson, TB @ Arizona Cardinals ($5,800) - Jackson is starting to get targeted more in the Bucs offense. Mike Evans is obviously the top WR option, although I see Jackson as an under-the-radar play right now, one to take advantage of while you can. I have always loved his downfield presence for the big play, and I won’t be shocked if Jackson gets a long TD facing the Cardinals defense. The Cards have allowed 10 TDs through the air this season so far – good for you if you decide to give Jackson a whirl.

Other choices: Davante Adams, GB @ Minnesota Vikings ($5,700); Terrelle Pryor, WAS vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,700); Amari Cooper, OAK vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($5,000) – If Derek Carr is back, I really, really like Cooper in Week 5, with the idea that Cooper is healthy and ready to go of course. The price tag is worth taking a shot on Cooper, given his worldly talents; Willie Snead, NO vs. Detroit Lions ($4,700)

Over-Value

Keenan Allen, LAC @ Oakland Raiders ($7,900) – Allen has been solid for the Chargers, averaging 16 FPPG on the season. And, that’s only finding the end zone once on the year Not bad; however, I don’t want to spend almost $8K on Allen. The price is inflated for me, and I’m going to avoid.

TIGHT END

Top Level

None

Mid-Range

Jordan Reed, WAS vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,000)

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ vs. New England Patriots ($4,300)

Value

Jared Cook, OAK vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($3,700) – No matter who’s at the helm, David Carr or E.J. Manuel, I like Cook. Aside from the low price tag, the Raiders will use Cook in the red zone. I’m not expecting huge returns, but 50 yards and a TD is not out of the question.

Over-Value

Rob Gronkowski, NE @ New York Jets ($6,800)

Travis Kelce, KC vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,100)

Good luck in Week 6! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy