DFS Three And Out 2019 week 6
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
It's a special quarterback-only edition!
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson had his worst passing game of the season in last Sunday's overtime win over the Steelers, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt, throwing three interceptions and taking five sacks. Over the last two weeks, Jackson has just four touchdowns against five interceptions. So it hasn't been great. In addition, receiver Marquise Brown, who made a sensational touchdown catch in traffic against the Steelers, missed a chunk of the game with an ankle injury that was still an issue as of Thursday. Jackson continues to rely heavily on his three tight ends, all of whom have played well. All that said, Jackson is more than capable of making us overlook any shortcomings with his passing on a given Sunday with his mobility -- as he's demonstrated by rushing for 136 yards over the last two games combined. And as FantasyPros notes, Jackson will have a golden opportunity to roll up a big rushing yardage total against the Bengals this week. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, Jackson already has posted four top-10 fantasy weeks, and that elite rushing production keeps him locked in for high-end production -- especially this week. The Bengals have allowed the second-most rushing yards (152) to quarterbacks this year, just one yard behind the Cardinals NFL-high 153 rushing yards allowed to the position. Additionally, Jackson ($8,200 on FanDuel; $6,900 on DraftKings) should have some success through the air as well since Football Outsiders rank Cincinnati 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
This just in: Minshew continues to play remarkably well. As ESPN's Field Yates wrote, "The Jaguars fill-in quarterback has been a joy to watch and has provided a key spark for Jacksonville, and has been really solid in fantasy." That's especially true in DFS, where the price ($6,900 on FanDuel; $5,000 on DraftKings) hasn't kept up with the production. Despite the fact that he didn't even start Week 1, Minshew is one of just four quarterbacks to score at least 16 points in every game this season. Currently 12th in the league with 8.16 air yards per attempt and impressively sixth overall in passer rating on the season, Minshew is 11th in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks since taking over as the team's starter in Week 2. This week, as ESPN.com's Jim McCormick pointed out, Minshew goes up against a New Orleans defense that has been so consistently good against the run that opponents are compelled to pass in order to move the sticks. As a result, the Saints have allowed the fourth-most QB points through five weeks at an average of 24.18 fantasy points per game. ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld chimed in by suggesting, "If Minshew exceeds 20 points in this matchup, it will be a massive win at his salary. Through four starts, he's averaging 19.5 DraftKings points per game so it's not a very big stretch." Indeed, given what McCormick characterized as his "growing vertical rapport with breakout wideout DJ Chark," it seems downright likely.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans
In case you missed it, Watson was really good last week. In fact, he was great in throwing for a career-high 426 yards against the Falcons. He tied his personal best with five touchdown passes, including three to Will Fuller. Watson is the first player in NFL to throw for at least 400 yards and five touchdowns with five incompletions or fewer in a game in NFL history. It helped that Houston's beleaguered offensive line didn't allow a sack on Sunday after giving up 18 through the first four games. Watson, who was criticized for failing to complete any deep passes against the Panthers in Week 4, had no such trouble on Sunday when he completed multiple passes for 25 yards or more. ... So the obvious question here is, are we chasing last week's points? Sure we are. And not without good reason. As Zeidenfeld pointed out, Watson holds as high a ceiling as any passer in the league, having had either 350 yards or a rushing touchdown in every game this season. This week, he goes up against a Chiefs defense that has seen the fifth-highest amount of deep throws on the season. After last week, Watson ranks fourth in terms of completions on balls thrown 20-plus yards on the year. So yes, Watson is expensive ($8,400 on FanDuel; $6,700 on DraftKings). And playing at Arrowhead Stadium hasn't yielded fantastic fantasy totals in recent years (as FantasyPro's Mike Tagliere pointed out, the only quarterback who scored more than 21 fantasy points in Kansas City over the last three seasons was Blake Bortles, who did because he rushed for 34 yards and a touchdown). But the Chiefs increasingly injury-depleted defense is too appealing for me to pass up on in what I'm obviously hoping turns into a track meet.
BONUS: I know, I know. ... It's three and out, not six and out. Still, I like me some Kirk Cousins ($7,000 on FanDuel; $5,200 on DraftKings), Kyler Murray ($7,700 on FanDuel; $6,500 on DraftKings) and Matt Ryan ($8,100 on FanDuel; $6,400 on DraftKings) would suit me just fine as well.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, Wentz is a major reason for the Eagles' overall success this season. But as Philadelphia Inquirer staffer Paul Domowitch notes, the injury to DeSean Jackson has impacted the passing game. Wentz has completed just four of 15 deep balls (throws of 20 yards or more) in the four games without Jackson. He averaged 8.0 yards per attempt in Week 1 with Jackson, but just 6.2 without him. Alshon Jeffery is averaging a career-low 9.9 yards per catch. Nelson Agholor had five receiving first downs in Week 2, but has had only three in the Eagles' other four games. The Vikings, meanwhile, rank 23rd in opponent completion percentage allowed (68.6), but don't give up the deep ball. They've allowed just 11 pass plays of 20-plus yards, the third fewest in the league, and are fourth in yards allowed per attempt (6.2). They have a solid pass rush led by edge-rushers Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen that has 15 sacks. More importantly, as ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, the Vikings are allowing just 14 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. After three-straight game with fewer than 20 completions, ($7,500 on FanDuel; $6,000 on DraftKings) I'm out on Wentz in Minnesota.