DFS Three And Out 2019 week 4
Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
In case you haven't been following along at home, the connection between Jared Goff and Kupp appears to be getting even stronger. This past Sunday against the Browns, Kupp caught a career-best 11 passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns. "He just continues to get himself open," Goff said, "and he finds ways to be on the same page as me." Goff has thrown 13 touchdown passes to Kupp, the most of any Rams receiver. Kupp's two-TD game against the Browns marked his second career game with multiple scores. And this week? As Al Zeidenfeld noted on ESPN.com, this week Kupp and the Rams go up against a generous Tampa Bay secondary and even more generous red-zone defense, a unit that ranks second-worst in the league since the beginning of 2018, with a touchdown allowed on 70.6 percent of red-zone trips. Not surprisingly, Kupp's red-zone target numbers are strong. Kupp leads the Rams with 24 percent of their red-zone targets and, according to Zeidenfeld, has seen multiple red-zone looks in 31 percent of his games. With 31 targets through three weeks (a 31.3 percent share of the team's total targets), I see him as a great play for the money ($7,000 on FanDuel; $6,500 on DraftKings).
Paul Richardson, WR, Washington Redskins
Redskins rookie Terry McLaurin, who is the second player since the 1970 merger with at least 60 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in each of his first three career games (Louis Lipps in 1984 was the first), is understandably the apple of Fantasy Nation's eye. And I love(d) him this week. But he turned up on Thursday's injury report due to a hamstring issue. So I'm pivoting to Richardson here. Look, I hope McLaurin still plays; he's priced right ($6,300 on FanDuel; $4,500 on DraftKings) and he'll likely draw the heavier interest among DFS players for the obvious reasons -- not the least of which is Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins, whose shadow coverage has led to huge totals for those he's shadowed the first three games. But the Jenkins' struggles are indicative of a wider problem. Aside from the team's inability to rush opposing passers, ESPN's Mike Clay notes the Giants "are getting absolutely torched" by wide receivers, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position, as well as the most to perimeter receivers. Beyond that, they've allowed a league-high 19 deep receptions and five deep touchdowns through three weeks. They're also allowing a touchdown on 8.1 percent of passing attempts (as Zeidenfeld noted for reference, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are this generation's leaders in TD percentage and they both sit at just 6.1 percent on their careers). Meanwhile, the under-the-radar Richardson has touchdowns catches in back-to-back weeks (including Monday night's loss to the Bears, when Richardson was the team's most-targeted receiver). In addition, with Jenkins on McLaurin, Richardson will find himself facing rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker, which is a pretty sweet matchup in it's own right. Adding the fun, Richards ($4,700 on FanDuel; $3,700 on DraftKings) is cheaper than McLaurin and there's nothing I like better than a discount (on FanDuel, only one receiver is cheaper than Richardson).
Will Dissly, TE, Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals' trouble defending against tight ends continued last Sunday. Panthers tight end Greg Olsen finished with 75 yards and two touchdowns, continuing a trend of tight ends torching the Cardinals' defense. It was Detroit's T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 with 131 yards and a touchdown on six catches and Baltimore's Mark Andrews in Week 2 with eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. "That's three weeks in a row that we weren't able to slow down the tight ends," Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said. "They're premier players, but still we've got to do a better job with that." Next up? Dissly. While the Cardinals have a plan (the Athletic.com's Scott Bordow told listeners during a Wednesday appearance with the FootballDiehards on SiriusXM Sports Radio that safety Budda Baker will be asked to stop the trend of opposing tight ends destroying Arizona). Still, betting on the tight end in this matchup seems wise. Remember, a touchdown from Russell Wilson on the final play of regulation against the Saints, marked Dissly's third touchdown in two weeks and his fifth in seven NFL appearances. Beyond that, the price ($5,400 on FanDuel; $3,600 on DraftKings) ain't bad, especially given the matchup (also see Wilson's TD percentage above). By the way, if you're feeling like this is the week Arizona shuts down a tight end, feel free to pivot to Tyler Lockett ($6,300 DraftKings, $$6,600 FanDuel), who benefits from a 28 percent target share, creative usage and also a very favorable matchup. Knock yourself out here kids.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week I was in on Winston based on the matchup. And a hunch. I felt certain Winston was due for a big game. And he delivered. ... This week, it's also all about the matchup. Also a hunch. My hunch is this matchup is more than he can handle. For starters, the Buccaneers have to travel to the West Coast. Then they have to play the Rams. The Los Angeles defense is formidable. How formidable? As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out, they Rams have the fifth-lowest completion percentage against (57.8 percent), the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.84) and they are one of three teams yet to allow multiple TD passes in a game (New England and Green Bay being the others). But wait, it gets worse. FantasyPro's Mike Tagliere reminded readers the Rams pressured Browns QB Baker Mayfield on 46 percent of his dropbacks last week and the Bucs' protection isn't great. Also not great is Winston when pressured. Per Tagliere, Winston has a QB rating of 52.2 when under duress, 28th among all NFL quarterbacks in that category. In addition, starting center Ryan Jensen and wideouts Chris Godwin and Breshad Perriman are missing practice time early in the week. Yeah. I have a hunch. And my hunch is Winston costs too much. And my hunch doesn't change even after I actually check the price ($7,500 on FanDuel; $5,700 on DraftKings).